The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data

I examine the impact of energy price shock (oil prices shock and gas prices shock) on the economic activities in the United Kingdom using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a New Keynesian Philips Curve. I decomposed the changes in output caused by all of the stationary structural shocks. I found that the fall in output during the financial crisis period is driven by domestic demand shock, energy prices shock and world demand shock. I found the energy prices shock’s contribution to fall in output is temporary. Such that, the UK can borrow against such a temporary fall. This estimated model can create additional input to the policymaker’s choice of models

The parallel development of ODD and CD symptoms from early childhood to adolescence

This study examined the developmental relations between symptoms of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) from early childhood to adolescence. Specifically we tested, according to parent-reported problems, whether symptoms of ODD precede the development of CD symptoms, whether ODD and CD symptoms are reciprocally associated across time, or whether ODD and CD symptoms develop parallel to each other across time. Participants were a community-based sample (at time 1: N = 485, 48% boys) assessed biannually five times from age 4 to 6 until age 12-14. The findings suggested that, with control for stability effects, baseline SES, and symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ODD and CD symptoms develop parallel to each other. No gender differences were obtained. We conclude that without the initial presence of CD symptoms, ODD symptoms are not developmental precursors to CD symptoms

Identification of histone modifications in biomedical text for supporting epigenomic research

Corinna K, Klinger R, Hofmann-Apitius M. Identification of Histone Modifications in Biomedical Text for Supporting Epigenomic Research. BMC Bioinformatics. 2009;10(Suppl 1):S28

Otitis media in young Aboriginal children from remote communities in Northern and Central Australia: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Middle ear disease (otitis media) is common and frequently severe in Australian Aboriginal children. There have not been any recent large-scale surveys using clear definitions and a standardised middle ear assessment. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of middle ear disease (otitis media) in a high-risk population of young Aboriginal children from remote communities in Northern and Central Australia. METHODS: 709 Aboriginal children aged 6–30 months living in 29 communities from 4 health regions participated in the study between May and November 2001. Otitis media (OM) and perforation of the tympanic membrane (TM) were diagnosed by tympanometry, pneumatic otoscopy, and video-otoscopy. We used otoscopic criteria (bulging TM or recent perforation) to diagnose acute otitis media. RESULTS: 914 children were eligible to participate in the study and 709 were assessed (78%). Otitis media affected nearly all children (91%, 95%CI 88, 94). Overall prevalence estimates adjusted for clustering by community were: 10% (95%CI 8, 12) for unilateral otitis media with effusion (OME); 31% (95%CI 27, 34) for bilateral OME; 26% (95%CI 23, 30) for acute otitis media without perforation (AOM/woP); 7% (95%CI 4, 9) for AOM with perforation (AOM/wiP); 2% (95%CI 1, 3) for dry perforation; and 15% (95%CI 11, 19) for chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM). The perforation prevalence ranged from 0–60% between communities and from 19–33% between regions. Perforations of the tympanic membrane affected 40% of children in their first 18 months of life. These were not always persistent. CONCLUSION: Overall, 1 in every 2 children examined had otoscopic signs consistent with suppurative ear disease and 1 in 4 children had a perforated tympanic membrane. Some of the children with intact tympanic membranes had experienced a perforation that healed before the survey. In this high-risk population, high rates of tympanic perforation were associated with high rates of bulging of the tympanic membrane

An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution.</p

Vancomycin Heteroresistance Is Associated with Reduced Mortality in ST239 Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Blood Stream Infections

Background: Despite hVISA infections being associated with vancomycin treatment failure, no previous study has been able to detect a mortality difference between heteroresistant vancomycin intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (hVISA) and vancomycin susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (VSSA) bloodstream infections (BSI)