Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000-2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Implications of taxon-level variation in climate change response for interpreting plankton lifeform biodiversity indicators

Abstract Indicators based on broad functional characteristics, which group plankton taxa into “lifeforms”, summarize changes across a high number of taxa in a way that reflects changes in community functioning and are used to inform policy assessments. Key questions remain, however, as to what extent plankton taxa within these lifeforms share responses to environmental change. Addressing this knowledge gap can provide additional information on the influence of environmental drivers, including climate change, on plankton communities. Here, we use a multi-decadal plankton time series to examine the extent to which taxa within lifeforms share responses to sea surface temperature (SST) change. At the North Sea scale, the individual taxa responses within the dinoflagellate lifeform are skewed towards a negative response to increasing SST, consolidating previous findings that dinoflagellate abundance is decreasing with ocean warming. The individual taxa responses within the zooplankton lifeforms, however, varied, suggesting that lifeform traits are less of a factor determining response to SST for zooplankton than for phytoplankton. The lifeform level of grouping taxa, therefore, is useful for communicating change in the state and functioning of ecosystems, but finer taxonomically resolved data are essential for determining the drivers of plankton community change, including climate influences, during formal assessments.</jats:p

Long-Term Trends in Calcifying Plankton and pH in the North Sea

Relationships between six calcifying plankton groups and pH are explored in a highly biologically productive and data-rich area of the central North Sea using time-series datasets. The long-term trends show that abundances of foraminiferans, coccolithophores, and echinoderm larvae have risen over the last few decades while the abundances of bivalves and pteropods have declined. Despite good coverage of pH data for the study area there is uncertainty over the quality of this historical dataset; pH appears to have been declining since the mid 1990s but there was no statistical connection between the abundance of the calcifying plankton and the pH trends. If there are any effects of pH on calcifying plankton in the North Sea they appear to be masked by the combined effects of other climatic (e.g. temperature), chemical (nutrient concentrations) and biotic (predation) drivers. Certain calcified plankton have proliferated in the central North Sea, and are tolerant of changes in pH that have occurred since the 1950s but bivalve larvae and pteropods have declined. An improved monitoring programme is required as ocean acidification may be occurring at a rate that will exceed the environmental niches of numerous planktonic taxa, testing their capacities for acclimation and genetic adaptation

Are plankton nets a thing of the past? An assessment of in situ imaging of zooplankton for large-scale ecosystem assessment and policy decision-making

Zooplankton are fundamental to aquatic ecosystem services such as carbon and nutrient cycling. Therefore, a robust evidence base of how zooplankton respond to changes in anthropogenic pressures, such as climate change and nutrient loading, is key to implementing effective policy-making and management measures. Currently, the data on which to base this evidence, such as long time-series and large-scale datasets of zooplankton distribution and community composition, are too sparse owing to practical limitations in traditional collection and analysis methods. The advance of in situ imaging technologies that can be deployed at large scales on autonomous platforms, coupled with artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) for image analysis, promises a solution. However, whether imaging could reasonably replace physical samples, and whether AI/ML can achieve a taxonomic resolution that scientists trust, is currently unclear. We here develop a roadmap for imaging and AI/ML for future zooplankton monitoring and research based on community consensus. To do so, we determined current perceptions of the zooplankton community with a focus on their experience and trust in the new technologies. Our survey revealed a clear consensus that traditional net sampling and taxonomy must be retained, yet imaging will play an important part in the future of zooplankton monitoring and research. A period of overlapping use of imaging and physical sampling systems is needed before imaging can reasonably replace physical sampling for widespread time-series zooplankton monitoring. In addition, comprehensive improvements in AI/ML and close collaboration between zooplankton researchers and AI developers are needed for AI-based taxonomy to be trusted and fully adopted. Encouragingly, the adoption of cutting-edge technologies for zooplankton research may provide a solution to maintaining the critical taxonomic and ecological knowledge needed for future zooplankton monitoring and robust evidence-based policy decision-making

mNCEA policy brief - Plenty more fish in the sea? Counting the cost of climate change on marine Natural Capital

This policy brief describes how predicted changes in productivity across the Atlantic will impact the amount of fish that the marine environment can support. This is bound to have important implications for marine food webs and our continued sustainable use of marine resources. Plankton form the foundation of commercially-valuable food chains to fish • Warming, stratification and reduced nutrient supply has already reduced plankton stocks • Reduced phytoplankton also means less efficient food chains • Even a modest (16-26%) continued decline in phytoplankton will magnify into a 38-55% decline in harvestable fish across the north Atlantic • Hotspots of this future decline in fish are in present-day fishing grounds • This risk-mapping approach provides a forward look for spatial protection and management This project was funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) as part of the marine arm of the Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (NCEA) programme. The marine NCEA programme is leading the way in supporting Government ambition to integrate natural capital approaches into decision making for the marine environment. Find out more at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/natural-capital-and-ecosystem-assessment-programm

Make a difference: Choose artificial reefs over natural reefs to compensate for the environmental impacts of dive tourism

In the marine environment, natural reef habitats are amongst the most threatened by human activities. Although reef-based ecotourism can benefit local economies, dive tourism can damage sensitive habitats. One solution to managing conflicts between the economic value of diving and its ecological threats is the deployment of artificial reefs near popular dive sites. We surveyed recreational divers to assess divers' use, preference, and perceptions of diving artificial versus natural sites. We found that more divers prefer to dive in natural than artificial habitats, with associated biodiversity the most popular reason for preferring natural habitats, and appreciating shipwrecks the most popular reason for preferring artificial ones. Despite our sample population being highly educated and experienced, predominantly European divers, only 49 % of them perceived artificial reefs as important or somewhat important for diverting pressure from sensitive natural habitats. Similarly, only 13 % of respondents exhibited preference to avoid coral reefs to protect them. These results highlight the fact that more needs to be done to educate divers about the potential importance of artificial habitats in diverting divers from natural reefs. We suggest encouraging divers to switch out a proportion of their dives in vulnerable natural sites for artificial reefs. This is not only true for coral reefs, but should be applied to other natural reef habitats that are popular with divers such as kelp forests, sponge gardens and serpulid and coralligenous reefs. We hope that this study will provide a platform to stimulate a diver-led discussion and campaign for increased uptake of artificial reef use, resulting in reduced impacts on natural reefs

A Roadmap to Advance Marine and Coastal Monitoring, Biodiversity Assessment, and International Reporting: A Developing Nation Perspective

Despite the increasing number of tools and indicators to measure biodiversity status and trends, many developing countries struggle to initiate and advance coastal and marine assessments needed to monitor and track national and international progress in biodiversity targets. We identified five key challenges that hinder progress in this context, based on a national marine assessment workshop held in South Africa, and developed recommendations and tangible actions to address these challenges drawing from multiple national assessments, regional initiatives, and global collaborations over the last 15 years. Challenges include a poor understanding of methods, limited capacity and funding for assessments, a lack of systematic approaches to biodiversity assessment and indicator development, and scattered efforts that often fail to link science to policy. Key actions could enable the development of a coordinated framework to feed into policy and decision-making at multiple scales. We provide South African examples to highlight a developing country’s progress toward marine biodiversity assessment and provide a roadmap to integrated monitoring, assessment, and reporting based on positive outcomes. Recommendations to address challenges include building collective understanding of assessment tools and methods, prioritizing pressures urgently needing mitigation measures, using relevant indicators to support reporting at multiple scales, applying coordinated approaches to identify gaps and opportunities, codeveloping coordinated approaches with direct policy links, and leveraging resources and technical capacity for iterative improvement. This roadmap can guide developing and developed countries and support global best practices to collaboratively advance marine and coastal ecosystem monitoring and assessment at multiple scales for meeting many objective

Knowledge Gaps in Quantifying the Climate Change Response of Biological Storage of Carbon in the Ocean

The ocean is responsible for taking up approximately 25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and stores >50 times more carbon than the atmosphere. Biological processes in the ocean play a key role, maintaining atmospheric CO2 levels approximately 200 ppm lower than they would otherwise be. The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is sensitive to climate change, however the key biological processes that contribute to ocean carbon storage are uncertain, as are how those processes will respond to, and feedback on, climate change. As a result, biogeochemical models vary widely in their representation of relevant processes, driving large uncertainties in the projections of future ocean carbon storage. This review identifies key biological processes that affect how ocean carbon storage may change in the future in three thematic areas: biological contributions to alkalinity, net primary production, and interior respiration. We undertook a review of the existing literature to identify processes with high importance in influencing the future biologically-mediated storage of carbon in the ocean, and prioritized processes on the basis of both an expert assessment and a community survey. Highly ranked processes in both the expert assessment and survey were: for alkalinity—high level understanding of calcium carbonate production; for primary production—resource limitation of growth, zooplankton processes and phytoplankton loss processes; for respiration—microbial solubilization, particle characteristics and particle type. The analysis presented here is designed to support future field or laboratory experiments targeting new process understanding, and modeling efforts aimed at undertaking biogeochemical model development