Are cyclic sediments periodic? Gamma analysis and spectral analysis of Newark Supergroup lacustrine strata

Methodologies are suggested for the analysis of cyclic sediments. These include (1) linear analysis to determine whether cycles are of approximately constant duration and whether the relation between thickness and time is facies dependent and (2) multiple prolate-spheroidal windowing spectral analysis to determine whether time-series data indicate periodicities, either of the primary cycles or of higher or lower orders. The results of both methods are compared to a null hypothesis as a semiquantitative test of periodicity. Application of the methods to Newark Supergroup lacustrine cycles suggests that the primary cycles are approximately periodic and record a response to astronomical precession. The time represented by a given thickness of the different facies increases with the depositional water depth of that facies and with decreasing grain size. Precessional index cycles and long-period precessional index beats, or eccentricity, are strongly recorded in the spectra. Spectral results suggest but do not prove lengthening of the periodicities of orbital parameters since 200 Ma

Are cyclic sediments periodic? Gamma analysis and spectral analysis of Newark Supergroup lacustrine strata

Methodologies are suggested for the analysis of cyclic sediments. These include (1) linear analysis to determine whether cycles are of approximately constant duration and whether the relation between thickness and time is facies dependent and (2) multiple prolate-spheroidal windowing spectral analysis to determine whether time-series data indicate periodicities, either of the primary cycles or of higher or lower orders. The results of both methods are compared to a null hypothesis as a semiquantitative test of periodicity. Application of the methods to Newark Supergroup lacustrine cycles suggests that the primary cycles are approximately periodic and record a response to astronomical precession. The time represented by a given thickness of the different facies increases with the depositional water depth of that facies and with decreasing grain size. Precessional index cycles and long-period precessional index beats, or eccentricity, are strongly recorded in the spectra. Spectral results suggest but do not prove lengthening of the periodicities of orbital parameters since 200 Ma

Potential of Demand Side Management to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Associated with the Operation of Heat Pumps

This work considers the potential reduction in the carbon dioxide emissions associated with the operation of Air Source Heat Pump which could be achieved by using demand side management. In order to achieve significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, it is widely envisioned that electrification of the heating sector will need to be combined with decarbonisation of the electrical supply. By influencing the times at when electric heat pumps operate such that they coincide more with electricity generation which has a low marginal carbon emissions factor, it has been suggested that these emissions could be reduced further. In order to investigate this possibility, models of the UK electrical grid based on scenarios for 2020 to 2050 have been combined with a dynamic model of an air source heat pump unit and thermal models of a population of dwellings. The performance and carbon dioxide emissions associated with the heat pumps are compared both with and without demand side management interventions intended to give preference to operation when the marginal emissions factor of the electricity being generated is low. It is found that these interventions are unlikely to be effective at achieving further reductions in emissions. A reduction of around 3% was observed in scenarios based around 2035 but in other scenarios the reduction was insignificant. In the scenarios with high wind generation (2050), the DSM scheme considered here tends to improve thermal comfort (with minimal increases in emissions) rather than achieving a decrease in emissions. The reasons for this are discussed and further recommendations are made

Do Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) and track two processes support transboundary marine conservation? Lessons from six case studies of maritime disputes

By definition, marine protected areas (MPAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) address spatial aspects of the ecological processes and marine features. Such a requirement is especially challenging in areas where there is no clearly defined jurisdiction. However, in these areas, assigning sovereignty and rights can be achieved through bilateral or multilateral agreements, or with the use of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) tools such as mediation and arbitration. In some cases, states may engage in transboundary marine conservation initiatives to provide an entry point to enable wider collaboration. These processes can also evolve into a form of ‘environmental peacebuilding’ while ideally maintaining ecosystem functioning and resilience as a core goal. Conversely, MPAs and OECMs can also be used to assert maritime sovereignty rights over disputed waters, under the pretext of conserving marine habitats. This paper identifies emerging issues of conflict resolution and their interaction with transboundary marine conservation. While ADR focuses on negotiations and facilitated processes between state representatives (“track one diplomacy”), we also discuss other forms and levels of marine environmental peacebuilding and dispute resolution, particularly those between civil society organizations (“track two diplomacy”). The six case studies presented highlight areas of recent maritime conflict or border disputes in the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the West Indian Ocean, the Korean West Sea and the South China Sea. In all cases, high ecological value, vulnerable ecosystems, and the need to conserve ecosystem services provide a shared interest for cooperation despite on-going diplomatic difficulties. The strategies used in these cases are analyzed to determine what lessons might be learned from cross-border collaborative marine initiatives in situations of territorial dispute. The use of ADR tools and their ability to support joint marine initiatives are examined, as well as how such initiatives contribute to formal border negotiations. Other forms of inter-state dialogue and cooperation between local or civil organizations, circumventing formal treaties and negotiations between state leaders (‘track two’) are also investigated. Finally, other influencing factors, including third-party involvement, stakeholder interests, power dynamics, economic context, and socio-cultural aspects, are considered.European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST):15121info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on different income and socioeconomic groups: a modelling study

Background: Several countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions. Methods: We used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups. Findings: Overall, a minimum unit price of £0·45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1·6% (−11·7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (−3·8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0·8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0·04 vs £1·86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of −3·7% or −138·2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4·01), especially in the lowest income quintile (−7·6% or −299·8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34·63) compared with the highest income quintile (−1·0% or −34·3 units, with an increase in spending of £16·35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41·7% of the sample population) would accrue 81·8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87·1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Interpretation: Irrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0·45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043)

Kissing right? On the consistency of the head-turning bias in kissing

The present study investigated the consistency of the head-turning bias in kissing. In particular we addressed what happens if a person who prefers to kiss with the head turned to the right kisses a person who prefers to kiss with the head turned to the left. To this end, participants (N=57) were required to kiss a life-sized doll's head rotated in different orientations that were either compatible or incompatible with the participants' head-turning preference. Additionally, participants handedness, footedness, and eye preference was assessed. Results showed that a higher percentage of participants preferred to kiss with their head turned to the right than to the left. In addition, the right-turners were more consistent in their kissing behaviour than left-turners. That is, with the doll's head rotated in an incompatible direction, right-turners were less likely to switch their head to their non-preferred side. Since no clear relationships between head-turning bias and the other lateral preferences (i.e., handedness, footedness, and eye preference) were discerned, the more consistent head-turning bias among right-turners could not be explained as deriving from a joint pattern of lateral preferences that is stronger among individuals with rightward as compared to individuals with leftward lateral preferences. © 2010 Psychology Press

Impact on energy requirements and emissions of heat pumps and micro-cogenerators participating in demand side management

Belgium Herbarium image of Meise Botanic Garden