Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data

The celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data have appeared numerous times in the epidemic modelling literature, but in almost all cases only a specific subset of the data is considered. The only previous analysis of the full data set relied on approximation methods to derive a likelihood and did not assess model adequacy. The data themselves continue to be of interest due to concerns about the possible re-emergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism weapon. We present the first full Bayesian statistical analysis using data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which avoid the need for likelihood approximations and which yield a wider range of results than previous analyses. We also carry out model assessment using simulation-based methods. Our findings suggest that the outbreak was largely driven by the interaction structure of the population, and that the introduction of control measures was not the sole reason for the end of the epidemic. We also obtain quantitative estimates of key quantities including reproduction numbers

Correction to: Cluster identification, selection, and description in Cluster randomized crossover trials: the PREP-IT trials

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article

Āwhina Revolution: A Bayesian Analysis of Undergraduate and Postgraduate Completion Rates from a Program for Māori and Pacific Success in STEM Disciplines

Māori and Pacific students generally do not attain the same levels of tertiary success as New Zealanders of European descent, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) subjects. Te Rōpū Āwhina (Āwhina), an equity initiative at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand between 1999 and 2015, aimed to produce Māori and Pacific professionals in STEM disciplines who contribute to Māori and Pacific community development and leadership. A hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to estimate posterior standardized completion rates for 3-year undergraduate and 2-year postgraduate degrees undertaken by non-Māori-Pacific and Māori-Pacific students. Results were consistent with an Āwhina effect, that is, Āwhina's positive influence on (combined) Māori and Pacific success

Building a Clinical Research Network in Trauma Orthopaedics: The Major Extremity Trauma Research Consortium (METRC)

OBJECTIVESLessons learned from battle have been fundamental to advancing the care of injuries that occur in civilian life. Equally important is the need to further refine these advances in civilian practice, so they are available during future conflicts. The Major Extremity Trauma Research Consortium (METRC) was established to address these needs.METHODSMETRC is a network of 22 core level I civilian trauma centers and 4 core military treatment centers-with the ability to expand patient recruitment to more than 30 additional satellite trauma centers for the purpose of conducting multicenter research studies relevant to the treatment and outcomes of orthopaedic trauma sustained in the military. Early measures of success of the Consortium pertain to building of an infrastructure to support the network, managing the regulatory process, and enrolling and following patients in multiple studies.RESULTSMETRC has been successful in maintaining the engagement of several leading, high volume, level I trauma centers that form the core of METRC; together they operatively manage 15,432 major fractures annually. METRC is currently funded to conduct 18 prospective studies that address 6 priority areas. The design and implementation of these studies are managed through a single coordinating center. As of December 1, 2015, a total of 4560 participants have been enrolled.CONCLUSIONSSuccess of METRC to date confirms the potential for civilian and military trauma centers to collaborate on critical research issues and leverage the strength that comes from engaging patients and providers from across multiple centers