Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Low-Energy Signals from Kinetic Mixing with a Warped Abelian Hidden Sector

We investigate the detailed phenomenology of a light Abelian hidden sector in the Randall-Sundrum framework. Relative to other works with light hidden sectors, the main new feature is a tower of hidden Kaluza-Klein vectors that kinetically mix with the Standard Model photon and Z. We investigate the decay properties of the hidden sector fields in some detail, and develop an approach for calculating processes initiated on the ultraviolet brane of a warped space with large injection momentum relative to the infrared scale. Using these results, we determine the detailed bounds on the light warped hidden sector from precision electroweak measurements and low-energy experiments. We find viable regions of parameter space that lead to significant production rates for several of the hidden Kaluza-Klein vectors in meson factories and fixed-target experiments. This offers the possibility of exploring the structure of an extra spacetime dimension with lower-energy probes.Comment: (1+32) Pages, 13 Figures. v2: JHEP version (minor modifications, results unchanged

Neutrino Mass and μ→e+γ\mu \rightarrow e + \gamma from a Mini-Seesaw

The recently proposed "mini-seesaw mechanism" combines naturally suppressed Dirac and Majorana masses to achieve light Standard Model neutrinos via a low-scale seesaw. A key feature of this approach is the presence of multiple light (order GeV) sterile-neutrinos that mix with the Standard Model. In this work we study the bounds on these light sterile-neutrinos from processes like \mu ---> e + \gamma, invisible Z-decays, and neutrinoless double beta-decay. We show that viable parameter space exists and that, interestingly, key observables can lie just below current experimental sensitivities. In particular, a motivated region of parameter space predicts a value of BR(\mu ---> e + \gamma) within the range to be probed by MEG.Comment: 1+26 pages, 7 figures. v2 JHEP version (typo's fixed, minor change to presentation, results unchanged

Explosive Nucleosynthesis: What we learned and what we still do not understand

This review touches on historical aspects, going back to the early days of nuclear astrophysics, initiated by B$^2$FH and Cameron, discusses (i) the required nuclear input from reaction rates and decay properties up to the nuclear equation of state, continues (ii) with the tools to perform nucleosynthesis calculations and (iii) early parametrized nucleosynthesis studies, before (iv) reliable stellar models became available for the late stages of stellar evolution. It passes then through (v) explosive environments from core-collapse supernovae to explosive events in binary systems (including type Ia supernovae and compact binary mergers), and finally (vi) discusses the role of all these nucleosynthesis production sites in the evolution of galaxies. The focus is put on the comparison of early ideas and present, very recent, understanding.Comment: 11 pages, to appear in Springer Proceedings in Physics (Proc. of Intl. Conf. "Nuclei in the Cosmos XV", LNGS Assergi, Italy, June 2018

Secluded Dark Matter Coupled to a Hidden CFT

Models of secluded dark matter offer a variant on the standard WIMP picture and can modify our expectations for hidden sector phenomenology and detection. In this work we extend a minimal model of secluded dark matter, comprised of a U(1)'-charged dark matter candidate, to include a confining hidden-sector CFT. This provides a technically natural explanation for the hierarchically small mediator-scale, with hidden-sector confinement generating m_{gamma'}>0. Furthermore, the thermal history of the universe can differ markedly from the WIMP picture due to (i) new annihilation channels, (ii) a (potentially) large number of hidden-sector degrees of freedom, and (iii) a hidden-sector phase transition at temperatures T << M_{dm} after freeze out. The mediator allows both the dark matter and the Standard Model to communicate with the CFT, thus modifying the low-energy phenomenology and cosmic-ray signals from the secluded sector.Comment: ~50p, 8 figs; v2 JHEP versio

Warped Radion Dark Matter

Warped scenarios offer an appealing solution to the hierarchy problem. We consider a non-trivial deformation of the basic Randall-Sundrum framework that has a KK-parity symmetry. This leads to a stable particle beyond the Standard Model, that is generically expected to be the first KK-parity odd excitation of the radion field. We consider the viability of the KK-radion as a DM candidate in the context of thermal and non-thermal production in the early universe. In the thermal case, the KK-radion can account for the observed DM density when the radion decay constant is in the natural multi-TeV range. We also explore the effects of coannihilations with the first KK excitation of the RH top, as well as the effects of radion-Higgs mixing, which imply mixing between the KK-radion and a KK-Higgs (both being KK-parity odd). The non-thermal scenario, with a high radion decay constant, can also lead to a viable scenario provided the reheat temperature and the radion decay constant take appropriate values, although the reheat temperature should not be much higher than the TeV scale. Direct detection is found to be feasible if the DM has a small (KK-parity odd) Higgs admixture. Indirect detection via a photon signal from the galactic center is an interesting possibility, while the positron and neutrino fluxes from KK-radion annihilations are expected to be rather small. Colliders can probe characteristic aspects of the DM sector of warped scenarios with KK-parity, such as the degeneracy between the radion and the KK-radion (DM) modes.Comment: 43 pages, 16 figures; added reference

The Relative Importance of Clinical, Economic, Patient Values and Feasibility Criteria in Cancer Drug Reimbursement in Canada:A Revealed Preferences Analysis of Recommendations of the Pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review 2011–2017

Background: Most Canadian provinces and territories rely on the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) to provide recommendations regarding public reimbursement of cancer drugs. The pCODR review process considers four dimensions of value—clinical benefit, economic evaluation, patient-based values and adoption feasibility—but they do not define weights for individual decision criteria or an acceptable threshold for any of the criteria. Given this implicit review process, it is of interest to understand which factors appear to carry the most weight in pCODR recommendations using a revealed preferences approach. Methods: Using publicly available decision summaries (n = 91) describing submissions and resulting recommendations 2011–2017, we extracted ten attributes that characterized each submission. Using logistic regression, we identified statistically significant attributes and estimated their relative impact in final recommendations. Results: Clinical aspects appear to carry the greatest weight in the decision to reject or not reject, along with aspects of patient value (treatments with no alternatives were less likely to be rejected). Cost effectiveness does not appear to play a role in the initial decision to reject or not reject but is critical in full versus conditional approvals. There is evidence of a maximum acceptable threshold of around $Can140,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Conclusion: A set of factors driving pCODR recommendations is identifiable, supporting the consistency of the review process. However, the implicit nature of the review process and the difficulty of extracting and interpreting some of the attribute levels used in the analysis suggests that the process may still lack full transparency

Endoscopic diagnosis of acute intestinal GVHD following allogeneic hematopoietic SCT: a retrospective analysis in 175 patients

Diagnosis of acute intestinal GVHD (aGVHD) following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is based on clinical symptoms and histological lesions. This retrospective analysis aimed to validate the ‘Freiburg Criteria' for the endoscopic grading of intestinal aGVHD. Grade 1: no clear-cut criteria; grade 2: spotted erythema; grade 3: aphthous lesions; and grade 4: confluent defects, ulcers, denudation of the mucosa. Having excluded patients with infectious diarrhea, we evaluated 175 consecutive patients between January 2001 and June 2009. Setting a cutoff between grade 1 (no change in therapy) and grade 2 (intensification of immunosuppression), macroscopy had a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 80.4–94.9%), a specificity of 79.4% (95% CI: 69.6–87.1%), a positive-predictive value of 79.6% (95% CI: 70.0–87.2%) and a negative-predictive value of 89.0% (95% CI: 80.2–94.9%). In all, 20% of patients with aGVHD in the lower gastrointestinal tract (GIT) had lesions only in the terminal ileum. In all patients with aGVHD ⩾2 of the upper GIT, typical lesions were also found in the lower GIT. Ileo-colonoscopy showed the highest diagnostic yield for aGVHD. In conclusion, the ‘Freiburg Criteria' for macroscopic diagnosis of intestinal aGVHD provide high accuracy for identifying aGVHD ⩾2

Low-Energy Probes of a Warped Extra Dimension

We investigate a natural realization of a light Abelian hidden sector in an extended Randall-Sundrum (RS) model. In addition to the usual RS bulk we consider a second warped space containing a bulk U(1)_x gauge theory with a characteristic IR scale of order a GeV. This Abelian hidden sector can couple to the standard model via gauge kinetic mixing on a common UV brane. We show that if such a coupling induces significant mixing between the lightest U(1)_x gauge mode and the standard model photon and Z, it can also induce significant mixing with the heavier U(1)_x Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes. As a result it might be possible to probe several KK modes in upcoming fixed-target experiments and meson factories, thereby offering a new way to investigate the structure of an extra spacetime dimension.Comment: 26 pages, 1 figure, added references, corrected minor typos, same as journal versio

Functional Group and Substructure Searching as a Tool in Metabolomics

BACKGROUND: A direct link between the names and structures of compounds and the functional groups contained within them is important, not only because biochemists frequently rely on literature that uses a free-text format to describe functional groups, but also because metabolic models depend upon the connections between enzymes and substrates being known and appropriately stored in databases. METHODOLOGY: We have developed a database named "Biochemical Substructure Search Catalogue" (BiSSCat), which contains 489 functional groups, >200,000 compounds and >1,000,000 different computationally constructed substructures, to allow identification of chemical compounds of biological interest. CONCLUSIONS: This database and its associated web-based search program (http://bisscat.org/) can be used to find compounds containing selected combinations of substructures and functional groups. It can be used to determine possible additional substrates for known enzymes and for putative enzymes found in genome projects. Its applications to enzyme inhibitor design are also discussed