Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface

Summary findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH4). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane.The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term

Social norms towards smoking and electronic cigarettes among adult smokers in seven European Countries: Findings from the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys

Introduction: This study explores whether current smokers' social norms towards smoking and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) vary across seven European countries alongside smoking and e-cigarette prevalence rates. At the time of surveying, England had the lowest current smoking prevalence and Greece the highest. Hungary, Romania and Spain had the lowest prevalence of any e-cigarette use and England the highest. Methods: Respondents were adult (≥18 years) current smokers from the 2016 EUREST-PLUS ITC (Romania, Spain, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Germany) and ITC 4CV England Surveys (N=7779). Using logistic regression, associations between country and (a) smoking norms and (b) e-cigarette norms were assessed, adjusting for age, sex, income, education, smoking status, heaviness of smoking, and e-cigarette status. Results: Compared with England, smoking norms were higher in all countries: reporting that at least three of five closest friends smoke (19% vs 65-84% [AOR=6.9-24.0; Hungary-Greece]), perceiving that people important to them approve of smoking (8% vs 14-57% [1.9-51.1; Spain-Hungary]), perceiving that the public approves of smoking (5% vs 6-37% [1.7-15.8; Spain-Hungary]), disagreeing that smokers are marginalised (9% vs 16-50% [2.3-12.3; Poland-Greece]) except in Hungary. Compared with England: reporting that at least one of five closest friends uses e-cigarettes was higher in Poland (28% vs 36% [2.7]) but lower in Spain and Romania (28% vs 6-14% [0.3-0.6]), perceiving that the public approves of e-cigarettes was higher in Poland, Hungary and Greece (32% vs 36-40% [1.5-1.6]) but lower in Spain and Romania in unadjusted analyses only (32% vs 24-26%), reporting seeing e-cigarette use in public at least some days was lower in all countries (81% vs 12.55% [0.1-0.4]; Spain-Greece). Conclusions: Smokers from England had the least pro-smoking norms. Smokers from Spain had the least pro-e-cigarette norms. Friend smoking and disagreeing that smokers are marginalised broadly aligned with country-level current smoking rates. Seeing e-cigarette use in public broadly aligned with countrylevel any e-cigarette use. Generally, no other norms aligned with product prevalence. © 2019 East KA

Fear appeals in anti-smoking advertising : how important is self-efficacy?

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Marketing Management on 11 October 2012, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0267257X.2012.715092Fear appeals are frequently used in anti-smoking advertising. The evidence on the effectiveness of fear appeals is mixed, and in some studies strong fear appeals have been found to reinforce the undesirable behaviour. Individual self-efficacy may play a role in moderating the effects of fear appeals. In advertising contexts where the intention was to encourage socially desirable behaviours, it has been shown that greater self-efficacy is associated with a more positive response to fear appeals. Similarly, in such contexts, the perceived ethicality of a fear-appeal advertisement appears to be positively related to self-efficacy. The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between self-efficacy, perceived ethicality, and the impact of advertising on behavioural intentions in a context where the aim is to discourage undesirable behaviour, namely anti-smoking advertising. Questionnaire data were gathered from 434 respondents in London, England. Respondents with higher reported self-efficacy were found to have more favourable views of the ethicality of fear-appeal advertising, more positive attitudes towards the advertising, and stronger intentions to quit smoking. It is recommended that when using fear appeals in advertising to discourage undesirable behaviour, advertisers should incorporate messages designed to enhance self-efficacy.Peer reviewe