Evaluating Arctic clouds modelled with the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System

By synthesising remote-sensing measurements made in the central Arctic into a model-gridded Cloudnet cloud product, we evaluate how well the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) capture Arctic clouds and their associated interactions with the surface energy balance and the thermodynamic structure of the lower troposphere. This evaluation was conducted using a 4-week observation period from the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition, where the transition from sea ice melting to freezing conditions was measured. Three different cloud schemes were tested within a nested limited-area model (LAM) configuration of the UM – two regionally operational single-moment schemes (UM_RA2M and UM_RA2T) and one novel double-moment scheme (UM_CASIM-100) – while one global simulation was conducted with the IFS, utilising its default cloud scheme (ECMWF_IFS). Consistent weaknesses were identified across both models, with both the UM and IFS overestimating cloud occurrence below 3 km. This overestimation was also consistent across the three cloud configurations used within the UM framework, with >90 % mean cloud occurrence simulated between 0.15 and 1 km in all the model simulations. However, the cloud microphysical structure, on average, was modelled reasonably well in each simulation, with the cloud liquid water content (LWC) and ice water content (IWC) comparing well with observations over much of the vertical profile. The key microphysical discrepancy between the models and observations was in the LWC between 1 and 3 km, where most simulations (all except UM_RA2T) overestimated the observed LWC. Despite this reasonable performance in cloud physical structure, both models failed to adequately capture cloud-free episodes: this consistency in cloud cover likely contributes to the ever-present near-surface temperature bias in every simulation. Both models also consistently exhibited temperature and moisture biases below 3 km, with particularly strong cold biases coinciding with the overabundant modelled cloud layers. These biases are likely due to too much cloud-top radiative cooling from these persistent modelled cloud layers and were consistent across the three UM configurations tested, despite differences in their parameterisations of cloud on a sub-grid scale. Alarmingly, our findings suggest that these biases in the regional model were inherited from the global model, driving a cause–effect relationship between the excessive low-altitude cloudiness and the coincident cold bias. Using representative cloud condensation nuclei concentrations in our double-moment UM configuration while improving cloud microphysical structure does little to alleviate these biases; therefore, no matter how comprehensive we make the cloud physics in the nested LAM configuration used here, its cloud and thermodynamic structure will continue to be overwhelmingly biased by the meteorological conditions of its driving model

Prevention of delirium (POD) for older people in hospital: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: Delirium is the most frequent complication among older people following hospitalisation. Delirium may be prevented in about one-third of patients using a multicomponent intervention. However, in the United Kingdom, the National Health Service has no routine delirium prevention care systems. We have developed the Prevention of Delirium Programme, a multicomponent delirium prevention intervention and implementation process. We have successfully carried out a pilot study to test the feasibility and acceptability of implementation of the programme. We are now undertaking preliminary testing of the programme. Methods/Design: The Prevention of Delirium Study is a multicentre, cluster randomised feasibility study designed to explore the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Prevention of Delirium Programme. Sixteen elderly care medicine and orthopaedic/trauma wards in eight National Health Service acute hospitals will be randomised to receive the Prevention of Delirium Programme or usual care. Patients will be eligible for the trial if they have been admitted to a participating ward and are aged 65 years or over. The primary objectives of the study are to provide a preliminary estimate of the effectiveness of the Prevention of Delirium Programme as measured by the incidence of new onset delirium, assess the variability of the incidence of new-onset delirium, estimate the intracluster correlation coefficient and likely cluster size, assess barriers to the delivery of the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care, assess compliance with the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care, estimate recruitment and follow-up rates, assess the degree of contamination due to between-ward staff movements, and investigate differences in financial costs and benefits between the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care and standard practice. Secondary objectives are to investigate differences in the number, severity and length of delirium episodes (including persistent delirium); length of stay in hospital; inhospital mortality; destination at discharge; health-related quality of life and health resource use; physical and social independence; anxiety and depression; and patient experience. Discussion: This feasibility study will be used to gather data to inform the design of a future definitive randomised controlled trial. Trial registration: ISRCTN01187372. Registered 13 March 2014

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional

Furthering Understanding of Aerosol–Cloud–Precipitation Interactions in the Arctic

International audienceSecond QuIESCENT (Quantifying the Indirect Effect: From Sources to ClimateEffects of Natural and Transported Aerosol in the Arctic) WorkshopWhat: Atmospheric scientists shared and discussed recent work to understand the complexinteractions between aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, and dynamics at northernhigh latitudes, as well as recent and upcoming field campaigns to improve thatunderstanding.When: 30 March–1 April 2022Where: Tromsø, Norwa

Furthering Understanding of Aerosol–Cloud–Precipitation Interactions in the Arctic

International audienceSecond QuIESCENT (Quantifying the Indirect Effect: From Sources to ClimateEffects of Natural and Transported Aerosol in the Arctic) WorkshopWhat: Atmospheric scientists shared and discussed recent work to understand the complexinteractions between aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, and dynamics at northernhigh latitudes, as well as recent and upcoming field campaigns to improve thatunderstanding.When: 30 March–1 April 2022Where: Tromsø, Norwa

Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny

Affiliations des auteurs : cf page 216 de l'articleInternational audienceComparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species

Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny

Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species