Extracting more wisdom from the crowd

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, 2018.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (pages 129-140).In many situations, from economists predicting unemployment rates to chemists estimating fuel safety, individuals have differing opinions or predictions. We consider the wisdom-of-the-crowd problem of aggregating the judgments of multiple individuals on a single question, when no outside information about their competence is available. Many standard methods select the most popular answer, after correcting for variations in confidence. Using a formal model, we prove that any such method can fail even if based on perfect Bayesian estimates of individual confidence, or, more generally, on Bayesian posterior probabilities. Our model suggests a new method for aggregating opinions: select the answer that is more popular than people predict. We derive theoretical conditions under which this new method is guaranteed to work, and generalize it to questions with more than two possible answers. We conduct empirical tests in which respondents are asked for both their own answer to some question and their prediction about the distribution of answers given by other people, and show that our new method outperforms majority and confidence-weighted voting in a range of domains including geography and trivia questions, laypeople and professionals judging art prices, and dermatologists evaluating skin lesions. We develop and evaluate a probabilistic generative model for crowd wisdom, including applying it across questions to determine individual respondent expertise and comparing it to various Bayesian hierarchical models. We extend our new crowd wisdom method to operate on domains where the answer space is unknown in advance, by having respondents predict the most common answers given by others, and discuss performance on a cognitive reflection test as a case study of this extension.by John Patrick McCoy.Ph. D

The diffusion of simple penetrants in tangent site polymer melts

The diffusive behavior of penetrants in simple polymer melts was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. For the case where the polymer melt consisted of pearl-necklace chains, the diffusive behavior of the loose pearl penetrants was seen to be qualitatively different than would be expected in realistic models of polymer melts. In particular, there was little or no ''non-Fickiano'' region; the variation of the diffusion coefficient with the penetrant diameter was what one would expect for diffusion through small molecular liquids; and, finally, the long time tail of the velocity auto correlation displayed a ''-3/2'' power law form, also as in the small molecular liquid case. When the chains' backbone motion was further constrained by the introduction of a bond angle potential, the qualitative nature of the penetrant diffusion became more ''polymer-like''. A non-Fickian region developed; the diffusion coefficient varied more rapidly with penetrant diameter; and the velocity autocorrelation function developed a ''-5/2'' power law tail as would be expected for the diffusion of particles with a wide distribution of trapping times

Discovery and Identification of Dimethylsilanediol as a Contaminant in ISS Potable Water

In September 2010, analysis of ISS potable water samples was undertaken to determine the contaminant(s) responsible for a rise of total organic carbon (TOC) in the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) product water. As analysis of the routine target list of organic compounds did not reveal the contaminant, efforts to look for unknown compounds were initiated, resulting in discovery of an unknown peak in the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis for glycols. A mass spectrum of the contaminant was then generated by concentrating one of the samples and analyzing it by GC/MS in full-scan mode. Although a computer match of the compound identity could not be obtained with the instrument database, a search with a more up-to-date mass spectral library yielded a good match with dimethylsilanediol (DMSD). Inductively coupled plasma/mass spectrometry (ICP/MS) analyses showed abnormally high silicon levels in the samples, confirming that the unknown compound(s) contained silicon. DMSD was then synthesized to confirm the identification and provide a standard to develop a calibration curve. Further confirmation was provided by external direct analysis in real time time of flight (DART TOF) mass spectrometry. To routinely test for DMSD in the future, a quantitative method was needed. A preliminary GC/MS method was developed and archived samples from various locations on ISS were analyzed to determine the extent of the contamination and provide data for troubleshooting. This paper describes these events in more detail as well as problems encountered in routine GC/MS analyses and the subsequent development of high performance liquid chromatography and LC/MS/MS methods for measuring DMSD

Discovery and Identification of Dimethylsilanediol as a Contaminant in ISS Potable Water

In September of 2010, analysis of ISS potable water samples was undertaken to determine the contaminant responsible for a rise in total organic carbon (TOC). As analysis of the routine target list of organic compounds did not reveal the contaminant, efforts to look for unknown compounds was initiated, resulting in an unknown peak being discovered in the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis for glycols. A mass spectrum of the contaminant was then generated by concentrating one of the samples by evaporation and analyzing by GC/MS in full-scan mode. Although a computer match of the compound s identity could not be obtained with the instrument s database, a search with a more up to date mass spectral library yielded a good match with dimethylsilanediol (DMSD). Inductively Coupled Plasma/Mass Spectrometry (ICP/MS) analyses showed abnormally high silicon levels in the samples, confirming that the unknown contained silicon. DMSD was then synthesized to confirm the identification and provide a standard to develop a calibration curve. Further confirmation was provided by external Direct Analysis in Real Time (DART) GC/MS analysis. A preliminary GC/MS method was then developed and archived samples from various locations on ISS were analyzed to determine the extent of the contamination and provide data for troubleshooting. This paper describes these events in more detail as well as problems encountered in routine GC/MS analyses and the subsequent development of high performance liquid chromatography and LC/MS/MS methods for quantitation of DMSD

Major-Element Abundances on the Surface of Mercury: Results from the MESSENGER Gamma-Ray Spectrometer

Orbital gamma-ray measurements obtained by the MESSENGER spacecraft have been analyzed to determine the abundances of the major elements Al, Ca, S, Fe, and Na on the surface of Mercury. The Si abundance was determined and used to normalize those of the other reported elements. The Na analysis provides the first abundance estimate of 2.9 plus or minus 0.1 wt% for this element on Mercury's surface. The other elemental results (S/Si = 0.092 plus or minus 0.015, Ca/Si = 0.24 plus or minus 0.05, and Fe/Si = 0.077 plus or minus 0.013) are consistent with those previously obtained by the MESSENGER X-Ray Spectrometer, including the high sulfur and low iron abundances. Because of different sampling depths for the two techniques, this agreement indicates that Mercury's regolith is, on average, homogenous to a depth of tens of centimeters. The elemental results from gamma-ray and X-ray spectrometry are most consistent with petrologic models suggesting that Mercury's surface is dominated by Mg-rich silicates. We also compare the results with those obtained during the MESSENGER flybys and with ground-based observations of Mercury's surface and exosphere

Genomic Profiling of Childhood Tumor Patient-Derived Xenograft Models to Enable Rational Clinical Trial Design.

Accelerating cures for children with cancer remains an immediate challenge as a result of extensive oncogenic heterogeneity between and within histologies, distinct molecular mechanisms evolving between diagnosis and relapsed disease, and limited therapeutic options. To systematically prioritize and rationally test novel agents in preclinical murine models, researchers within the Pediatric Preclinical Testing Consortium are continuously developing patient-derived xenografts (PDXs)-many of which are refractory to current standard-of-care treatments-from high-risk childhood cancers. Here, we genomically characterize 261 PDX models from 37 unique pediatric cancers; demonstrate faithful recapitulation of histologies and subtypes; and refine our understanding of relapsed disease. In addition, we use expression signatures to classify tumors for TP53 and NF1 pathway inactivation. We anticipate that these data will serve as a resource for pediatric oncology drug development and will guide rational clinical trial design for children with cancer

Structural and functional insight into the mechanism of an alkaline exonuclease from Laribacter hongkongensis

Alkaline exonuclease and single-strand DNA (ssDNA) annealing proteins (SSAPs) are key components of DNA recombination and repair systems within many prokaryotes, bacteriophages and virus-like genetic elements. The recently sequenced β-proteobacterium Laribacter hongkongensis (strain HLHK9) encodes putative homologs of alkaline exonuclease (LHK-Exo) and SSAP (LHK-Bet) proteins on its 3.17 Mb genome. Here, we report the biophysical, biochemical and structural characterization of recombinant LHK-Exo protein. LHK-Exo digests linear double-stranded DNA molecules from their 5′-termini in a highly processive manner. Exonuclease activities are optimum at pH 8.2 and essentially require Mg2+ or Mn2+ ions. 5′-phosphorylated DNA substrates are preferred over dephosphorylated ones. The crystal structure of LHK-Exo was resolved to 1.9 Å, revealing a ‘doughnut-shaped’ toroidal trimeric arrangement with a central tapered channel, analogous to that of λ-exonuclease (Exo) from bacteriophage-λ. Active sites containing two bound Mg2+ ions on each of the three monomers were located in clefts exposed to this central channel. Crystal structures of LHK-Exo in complex with dAMP and ssDNA were determined to elucidate the structural basis for substrate recognition and binding. Through structure-guided mutational analysis, we discuss the roles played by various active site residues. A conserved two metal ion catalytic mechanism is proposed for this class of alkaline exonucleases

City of Hitchcock Comprehensive Plan 2020-2040

Hitchcock is a small town located in Galveston County (Figure 1.1), nestled up on the Texas Gulf Coast. It lies about 40 miles south-east of Houston. The boundaries of the city encloses an area of land of 60.46 sq. miles, an area of water of 31.64 sq. miles at an elevation just 16 feet above sea level. Hitchcock has more undeveloped land (~90% of total area) than the county combined. Its strategic location gives it a driving force of opportunities in the Houston-Galveston Region.The guiding principles for this planning process were Hitchcock’s vision statement and its corresponding goals, which were crafted by the task force. The goals focus on factors of growth and development including public participation, development considerations, transportation, community facilities, economic development, parks, and housing and social vulnerabilityTexas Target Communitie

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure