A circumpolar perspective on fluvial sediment flux to the Arctic ocean

Quantification of sediment fluxes from rivers is fundamental to understanding land‐ocean linkages in the Arctic. Numerous publications have focused on this subject over the past century, yet assessments of temporal trends are scarce and consensus on contemporary fluxes is lacking. Published estimates vary widely, but often provide little accessory information needed to interpret the differences. We present a pan‐arctic synthesis of sediment flux from 19 arctic rivers, primarily focusing on contributions from the eight largest ones. For this synthesis, historical records and recent unpublished data were compiled from Russian, Canadian, and United States sources. Evaluation of these data revealed no long‐term trends in sediment flux, but did show stepwise changes in the historical records of two of the rivers. In some cases, old values that do not reflect contemporary fluxes are still being reported, while in other cases, typographical errors have been propagated into the recent literature. Most of the discrepancy among published estimates, however, can be explained by differences in years of records examined and gauging stations used. Variations in sediment flux from year to year in arctic rivers are large, so estimates based on relatively few years can differ substantially. To determine best contemporary estimates of sediment flux for the eight largest arctic rivers, we used a combination of newly available data, historical records, and literature values. These estimates contribute to our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and contaminant transport to the Arctic Ocean and provide a baseline for detecting future anthropogenic or natural change in the Arctic

Recent changes in nitrate and dissolved organic carbon export from the upper Kuparuk River, North Slope, Alaska

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): G04S60, doi:10.1029/2006JG000371.Export of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the upper Kuparuk River between the late 1970s and early 2000s was evaluated using long-term ecological research (LTER) data in combination with solute flux and catchment hydrology models. The USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) was used to calculate June–August export from 1978 forward. LOADEST was then coupled with a catchment-based land surface model (CLSM) to estimate total annual export from 1991 to 2001. Simulations using the LOADEST/CLSM combination indicate that annual nitrate export from the upper Kuparuk River increased by ~5 fold and annual DOC export decreased by about one half from 1991 to 2001. The decrease in DOC export was focused in May and was primarily attributed to a decrease in river discharge. In contrast, increased nitrate export was evident from May to September and was primarily attributed to increased nitrate concentrations. Increased nitrate concentrations are evident across a wide range of discharge conditions, indicating that higher values do not simply reflect lower discharge in recent years but a significant shift to higher concentration per unit discharge. Nitrate concentrations remained elevated after 2001. However, extraordinarily low discharge during June 2004 and June–August 2005 outweighed the influence of higher concentrations in determining export during these years. The mechanism responsible for the recent increase in nitrate concentrations is uncertain but may relate to changes in soils and vegetation associated with regional warming. While changes in nitrate and DOC export from arctic rivers reflect changes in terrestrial ecosystems, they also have significant implications for Arctic Ocean ecosystems.This work was supported by the Arctic System Science Program of the National Science Foundation (OPP- 0436118) and by NSF funding for the Arctic LTER through a series of grants from 1987 to present

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

Background Net Reclassification Indices (NRI) have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. Methods In this review, we examine the various types of NRI statistics and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the NRI approach. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate NRI to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for NRI statistics and evaluate the merits of NRI-based hypothesis testing. Conclusions Investigators using NRI statistics should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the NRI components are the same as the changes in the true and false positive rates. We advocate use of true and false positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against NRI statistics because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in movements among risk categories. The category-free NRI is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. The category-free NRI suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free NRI can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the NRI. If investigators want to use NRI measures, their confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap methods rather than published variance formulas. The preferred single-number summary of the prediction increment is the improvement in the Net Benefit

Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and Subarctic freshwater cycle

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of American Association for the Advancement of Science for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science 313 (2006): 1061-1066, doi:10.1126/science.1122593.Manifold changes in the freshwater cycle of high-latitude lands and oceans have been reported in the past few years. A synthesis of these changes in sources of freshwater and in ocean freshwater storage illustrates the complementary and synoptic temporal pattern and magnitude of these changes over the past 50 years. Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net precipitation on the ocean contributed ~20,000 km3 of fresh water to the Arctic and high latitude North Atlantic oceans from lows in the 1960s to highs in the 1990s. Sea ice attrition provided another ~15,000 km3, and glacial melt added ~2000 km3. The sum of anomalous inputs from these freshwater sources matched the amount and rate at which fresh water accumulated in the North Atlantic during much of the period from 1965 through 1995. The changes in freshwater inputs and ocean storage occurred in conjunction with the amplifying North Atlantic Oscillation and rising air temperatures. Fresh water may now be accumulating in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be exported southward if and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters into a new high phase.Funding was provided by NSF (grants OPP-0229302, OPP- 0436118, OPP-0327664, OPP-0352754, OPP-0519840, OCE- 0326778), ONR (grant N00014-02-1-0305) and NASA (grant IDS-03-0000-0145)

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 23 (2013): 1817-1836, doi:10.1890/11-1050.1.Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.This study was supported, in part, by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants ARC-0531047, ARC-0531082, ARC-0531119, ARC-0554811, and ARC- 0652838; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grant R833261; the U.S. Department of Energy under grant DE-FG02-08ER64597; and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX09A126G

River export of nutrients and organic matter from the North Slope of Alaska to the Beaufort Sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 50 (2014): 1823–1839, doi:10.1002/2013WR014722.While river-borne materials are recognized as important resources supporting coastal ecosystems around the world, estimates of river export from the North Slope of Alaska have been limited by a scarcity of water chemistry and river discharge data. This paper quantifies water, nutrient, and organic matter export from the three largest rivers (Sagavanirktok, Kuparuk, and Colville) that drain Alaska's North Slope and discusses the potential importance of river inputs for biological production in coastal waters of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Together these rivers export ∼297,000 metric tons of organic carbon and ∼18,000 metric tons of organic nitrogen each year. Annual fluxes of nitrate-N, ammonium-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus are approximately 1750, 200, and 140 metric tons per year, respectively. Constituent export from Alaska's North Slope is dominated by the Colville River. This is in part due to its larger size, but also because constituent yields are greater in the Colville watershed. River-supplied nitrogen may be more important to productivity along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast than previously thought. However, given the dominance of organic nitrogen export, the potential role of river-supplied nitrogen in support of primary production depends strongly on remineralization mechanisms. Although rivers draining the North Slope of Alaska make only a small contribution to overall river export from the pan-arctic watershed, comparisons with major arctic rivers reveal unique regional characteristics as well as remarkable similarities among different regions and scales. Such information is crucial for development of robust river export models that represent the arctic system as a whole.Funding for this project was provided by a grant from the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (NSF-OPP-0436118) as part of the Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Study of the Northern Alaska Coastal System (SNACS) effort.2014-08-2

Understanding person acquisition using an interactive activation and competition network

Face perception is one of the most developed visual skills that humans display, and recent work has attempted to examine the mechanisms involved in face perception through noting how neural networks achieve the same performance. The purpose of the present paper is to extend this approach to look not just at human face recognition, but also at human face acquisition. Experiment 1 presents empirical data to describe the acquisition over time of appropriate representations for newly encountered faces. These results are compared with those of Simulation 1, in which a modified IAC network capable of modelling the acquisition process is generated. Experiment 2 and Simulation 2 explore the mechanisms of learning further, and it is demonstrated that the acquisition of a set of associated new facts is easier than the acquisition of individual facts in isolation of one another. This is explained in terms of the advantage gained from additional inputs and mutual reinforcement of developing links within an interactive neural network system. <br/

A pan-arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L06715, doi:10.1029/2006GL025753.Several recent publications have documented changes in river discharge from arctic and subarctic watersheds. Comparison of these findings, however, has been hampered by differences in time periods and methods of analysis. Here we compare changes in discharge from different regions of the pan-arctic watershed using identical time periods and analytical methods. Discharge to the Arctic Ocean increased by 5.6 km3/y/y during 1964-2000, the net result of a large increase from Eurasia moderated by a small decrease from North America. In contrast, discharge to Hudson/James/Ungava Bays decreased by 2.5 km3/y/y during 1964-2000. While this evaluation identifies an overall increase in discharge (~120 km3/y greater discharge at the end of the time period as compared to the beginning for Hudson/James/Unvaga Bays and the Arctic Ocean combined), the contrasting regional trends also highlight the need to understand the consequences of adding/removing freshwater from particular regions of the arctic and subarctic oceans.This work was supported by the Arctic System Science Program of the National Science Foundation (NSF-OPP-0229302, NSF-OPP-0230211, NSF-OPP-0519840) and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA17RJ2612)

Coating Thin Mirror Segments for Lightweight X-ray Optics

Next generations lightweight, high resolution, high throughput optics for x-ray astronomy requires integration of very thin mirror segments into a lightweight telescope housing without distortion. Thin glass substrates with linear dimension of 200 mm and thickness as small as 0.4 mm can now be fabricated to a precision of a few arc-seconds for grazing incidence optics. Subsequent implementation requires a distortion-free deposition of metals such as iridium or platinum. These depositions, however, generally have high coating stresses that cause mirror distortion. In this paper, we discuss the coating stress on these thin glass mirrors and the effort to eliminate their induced distortion. It is shown that balancing the coating distortion either by coating films with tensile and compressive stresses, or on both sides of the mirrors is not sufficient. Heating the mirror in a moderately high temperature turns out to relax the coated films reasonably well to a precision of about a second of arc and therefore provide a practical solution to the coating problem