Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Mathematics, Thermodynamics, and Modeling to Address Ten Common Misconceptions about Protein Structure, Folding, and Stability

To fully understand the roles proteins play in cellular processes, students need to grasp complex ideas about protein structure, folding, and stability. Our current understanding of these topics is based on mathematical models and experimental data. However, protein structure, folding, and stability are often introduced as descriptive, qualitative phenomena in undergraduate classes. In the process of learning about these topics, students often form incorrect ideas. For example, by learning about protein folding in the context of protein synthesis, students may come to an incorrect conclusion that once synthesized on the ribosome, a protein spends its entire cellular life time in its fully folded native confirmation. This is clearly not true; proteins are dynamic structures that undergo both local fluctuations and global unfolding events. To prevent and address such misconceptions, basic concepts of protein science can be introduced in the context of simple mathematical models and hands-on explorations of publicly available data sets. Ten common misconceptions about proteins are presented, along with suggestions for using equations, models, sequence, structure, and thermodynamic data to help students gain a deeper understanding of basic concepts relating to protein structure, folding, and stability

An exploration of parents’ preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment

Background: An increased awareness of patients’ and parents’ care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents’ preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).<p></p> Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents’ monetary valuation of health and service improvements.<p></p> Results: Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents’ preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents’ estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05.<p></p> Conclusions: In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents’ preferences.<p></p&gt

Complementary therapy use by patients and parents of children with asthma and the implications for NHS care: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Patients are increasingly using complementary therapies, often for chronic conditions. Asthma is the most common chronic condition in the UK. Previous research indicates that some asthma patients experience gaps in their NHS care. However, little attention has been given to how and why patients and parents of children with asthma use complementary therapies and the implications for NHS care. METHODS: Qualitative study, comprising 50 semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of 22 adults and 28 children with asthma (plus a parent), recruited from a range of NHS and non-NHS settings in Bristol, England. Data analysis was thematic, drawing on the principles of constant comparison. RESULTS: A range of complementary therapies were being used for asthma, most commonly Buteyko breathing and homeopathy. Most use took place outside of the NHS, comprising either self-treatment or consultation with private complementary therapists. Complementary therapies were usually used alongside not instead of conventional asthma treatment. A spectrum of complementary therapy users emerged, including "committed", "pragmatic" and "last resort" users. Motivating factors for complementary therapy use included concerns about conventional NHS care ("push factors") and attractive aspects of complementary therapies ("pull factors"). While participants were often uncertain whether therapies had directly helped their asthma, breathing techniques such as the Buteyko Method were most notably reported to enhance symptom control and enable reduction in medication. Across the range of therapies, the process of seeking and using complementary therapies seemed to help patients in two broad ways: it empowered them to take greater personal control over their condition rather than feel dependant on medication, and enabled exploration of a broader range of possible causes of their asthma than commonly discussed within NHS settings. CONCLUSION: Complementary therapy use reflects patients' and parents' underlying desire for greater self-care and need of opportunities to address some of their concerns regarding NHS asthma care. Self-management of chronic conditions is increasingly promoted within the NHS but with little attention to complementary therapy use as one strategy being used by patients and parents. With their desire for self-help, complementary therapy users are in many ways adopting the healthcare personas that current policies aim to encourage

Prescribing patterns in dementia: a multicentre observational study in a German network of CAM physicians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dementia is a major and increasing health problem worldwide. This study aims to investigate dementia treatment strategies among physicians specialised in complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) by analysing prescribing patterns and comparing them to current treatment guidelines in Germany.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-two primary care physicians in Germany participated in this prospective, multicentre observational study. Prescriptions and diagnoses were reported for each consecutive patient. Data were included if patients had at least one diagnosis of dementia according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases during the study period. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with a prescription of any anti-dementia drug including <it>Ginkgo biloba</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the 5-year study period (2004-2008), 577 patients with dementia were included (median age: 81 years (IQR: 74-87); 69% female). Dementia was classified as unspecified dementia (57.2%), vascular dementia (25.1%), dementia in Alzheimer's disease (10.4%), and dementia in Parkinson's disease (7.3%). The prevalence of anti-dementia drugs was 25.6%. The phytopharmaceutical <it>Ginkgo biloba </it>was the most frequently prescribed anti-dementia drug overall (67.6% of all) followed by cholinesterase inhibitors (17.6%). The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for receiving any anti-dementia drug was greater than 1 for neurologists (AOR = 2.34; CI: 1.59-3.47), the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AOR = 3.28; CI: 1.96-5.50), neuroleptic therapy (AOR = 1.87; CI: 1.22-2.88), co-morbidities hypertension (AOR = 2.03; CI: 1.41-2.90), and heart failure (AOR = 4.85; CI: 3.42-6.88). The chance for a prescription of any anti-dementia drug decreased with the diagnosis of vascular dementia (AOR = 0.64; CI: 0.43-0.95) and diabetes mellitus (AOR = 0.55; CI: 0.36-0.86). The prescription of <it>Ginkgo biloba </it>was associated with sex (female: AOR = 0.41; CI: 0.19-0.89), patient age (AOR = 1.06; CI: 1.02-1.10), treatment by a neurologist (AOR = 0.09; CI: 0.03-0.23), and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AOR = 0.07; CI: 0.04-0.16).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides a comprehensive analysis of everyday practice for treatment of dementia in primary care in physicians with a focus on CAM. The prescribing frequency for anti-dementia drugs is equivalent to those found in other German studies, while the administration of <it>Ginkgo biloba </it>is significantly higher.</p

Can Simply Answering Research Questions Change Behaviour? Systematic Review and Meta Analyses of Brief Alcohol Intervention Trials

BACKGROUND: Participant reports of their own behaviour are critical for the provision and evaluation of behavioural interventions. Recent developments in brief alcohol intervention trials provide an opportunity to evaluate longstanding concerns that answering questions on behaviour as part of research assessments may inadvertently influence it and produce bias. The study objective was to evaluate the size and nature of effects observed in randomized manipulations of the effects of answering questions on drinking behaviour in brief intervention trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Multiple methods were used to identify primary studies. Between-group differences in total weekly alcohol consumption, quantity per drinking day and AUDIT scores were evaluated in random effects meta-analyses. Ten trials were included in this review, of which two did not provide findings for quantitative study, in which three outcomes were evaluated. Between-group differences were of the magnitude of 13.7 (-0.17 to 27.6) grams of alcohol per week (approximately 1.5 U.K. units or 1 standard U.S. drink) and 1 point (0.1 to 1.9) in AUDIT score. There was no difference in quantity per drinking day. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Answering questions on drinking in brief intervention trials appears to alter subsequent self-reported behaviour. This potentially generates bias by exposing non-intervention control groups to an integral component of the intervention. The effects of brief alcohol interventions may thus have been consistently under-estimated. These findings are relevant to evaluations of any interventions to alter behaviours which involve participant self-report

Does trust in health care influence the use of complementary and alternative medicine by chronically ill people?

BACKGROUND: People's trust in health care and health care professionals is essential for the effectiveness of health care, especially for chronically ill people, since chronic diseases are by definition (partly) incurable. Therefore, it may be understandable that chronically ill people turn to complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), often in addition to regular care. Chronically ill people use CAM two to five times more often than non-chronically ill people. The trust of chronically ill people in health care and health care professionals and the relationship of this with CAM use have not been reported until now. In this study, we examine the influence of chronically ill people's trust in health care and health care professionals on CAM use. METHODS: The present sample comprises respondents of the 'Panel of Patients with Chronic Diseases' (PPCD). Patients (≥25 years) were selected by GPs. A total of 1,625 chronically ill people were included. Trust and CAM use was measured by a written questionnaire. Statistical analyses were t tests for independent samples, Chi-square and one-way analysis of variance, and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Chronically ill people have a relatively low level of trust in future health care. They trust certified alternative practitioners less than regular health care professionals, and non-certified alternative practitioners less still. The less trust patients have in future health care, the more they will be inclined to use CAM, when controlling for socio-demographic and disease characteristics. CONCLUSION: Trust in future health care is a significant predictor of CAM use. Chronically ill people's use of CAM may increase in the near future. Health policy makers should, therefore, be alert to the quality of practising alternative practitioners, for example by insisting on professional certification. Equally, good quality may increase people's trust in public health care

Evaluation of a community pharmacy-based intervention for improving patient adherence to antihypertensives: a randomised controlled trial

BackgroundThe majority of patients using antihypertensive medications fail to achieve their recommended target blood pressure. Poor daily adherence with medication regimens and a lack of persistence with medication use are two of the major reasons for failure to reach target blood pressure. There is no single intervention to improve adherence with antihypertensives that is consistently effective. Community pharmacists are in an ideal position to promote adherence to chronic medications. This study aims to test a specific intervention package that could be integrated into the community pharmacy workflow to enable pharmacists to improve patient adherence and/or persistence with antihypertensive medications - Hypertension Adherence Program in Pharmacy (HAPPY).Methods/DesignThe HAPPY trial is a multi-centre prospective randomised controlled trial. Fifty-six pharmacies have been recruited from three Australian states. To identify potential patients, a software application (MedeMine CVD) extracted data from a community pharmacy dispensing software system (FRED Dispense&reg;). The pharmacies have been randomised to either \u27Pharmacist Care Group\u27 (PCG) or \u27Usual Care Group\u27 (UCG). To check for \u27Hawthorne effect\u27 in the UCG, a third group of patients \u27Hidden Control Group\u27 (HCG) will be identified in the UCG pharmacies, which will be made known to the pharmacists at the end of six months. Each study group requires 182 patients. Data will be collected at baseline, three and six months in the PCG and at baseline and six months in the UCG. Changes in patient adherence and persistence at the end of six months will be measured using the self-reported Morisky score, the Tool for Adherence Behaviour Screening and medication refill data.DiscussionTo our knowledge, this is the first research testing a comprehensive package of evidence-based interventions that could be integrated into the community pharmacy workflow to enable pharmacists to improve patient adherence and/or persistence with antihypertensive medications. The unique features of the HAPPY trial include the use of MedeMine CVD to identify patients who could potentially benefit from the service, control for the \u27Hawthorne effect\u27 in the UCG and the offer of the intervention package at the end of six months to patients in the UCG, a strategy that is expected to improve retention.Trial RegistrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12609000705280<br /

Marxism Lost and Found: Alasdair MacIntyre and the Contemporary Debate

This paper examines the changing nature of debates that focus on the philosophy of Alasdair MacIntyre. Whilst outlining the history of MacIntyre’s engagement with Marxism and some of his key ideas, it argues that it is only recently that such debates have begun to rightfully recognise the continued relevance of Marxism to such discussions. I note that crucial aspects of MacIntyre’s politics and philosophy, particularly his opposition to capitalism, are now integral to the contemporary debate which helps in generating a shared vision of radical politics. Nevertheless, I point out that key disagreements still remain as to the role of Marxism within such debates, the validity of MacIntyre’s critique of Marxism, as well as the potentially problematic post-Marxist practice that MacIntyre advocates in After Virtue and beyond