The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Evaluating the Influence of Epidemiological Parameters and Host Ecology on the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus through Populations of Harbour Seals

Catriona Harris was supported by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collections and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers. Conclusions: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Identifying the Age Cohort Responsible for Transmission in a Natural Outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica

Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica – a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans – within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings – as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts – as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control

Antibody-Mediated Growth Inhibition of Plasmodium falciparum: Relationship to Age and Protection from Parasitemia in Kenyan Children and Adults

BACKGROUND: Antibodies that impair Plasmodium falciparum merozoite invasion and intraerythrocytic development are one of several mechanisms that mediate naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Attempts to correlate anti-malaria antibodies with risk of infection and morbidity have yielded inconsistent results. Growth inhibition assays (GIA) offer a convenient method to quantify functional antibody activity against blood stage malaria. METHODS: A treatment-time-to-infection study was conducted over 12-weeks in a malaria holoendemic area of Kenya. Plasma collected from healthy individuals (98 children and 99 adults) before artemether-lumefantrine treatment was tested by GIA in three separate laboratories. RESULTS: Median GIA levels varied with P. falciparum line (D10, 8.8%; 3D7, 34.9%; FVO, 51.4% inhibition). The magnitude of growth inhibition decreased with age in all P. falciparum lines tested with the highest median levels among children \u3c4 years compared to adults (e.g. 3D7, 45.4% vs. 30.0% respectively, p = 0.0003). Time-to-infection measured by weekly blood smears was significantly associated with level of GIA controlling for age. Upper quartile inhibition activity was associated with less risk of infection compared to individuals with lower levels (e.g. 3D7, hazard ratio = 1.535, 95% CI = 1.012-2.329; p = 0.0438). Various GIA methodologies had little effect on measured parasite growth inhibition. CONCLUSION: Plasma antibody-mediated growth inhibition of blood stage P. falciparum decreases with age in residents of a malaria holoendemic area. Growth inhibition assay may be a useful surrogate of protection against infection when outcome is controlled for age

Introduction: new research in monetary history - A map

This handbook aims to provide a comprehensive (though obviously not exhaustive) picture of state-of-the-art international scholarship on the history of money and currency. The chapters of this handbook cover a wide selection of research topics. They span chronologically from antiquity to nowadays and are geographically stretched from Latin America to Asia, although most of them focus on Western Europe and the USA, as a large part of the existing research does. The authors of these chapters constitute, we hope, a balanced sample of various generations of scholars who contributed to what Barry Eichengreen defined as "the new monetary and financial history" – an approach that combines the analysis of monetary aggregates and policies with the structure and dynamics of the banking sector and financial markets. We have structured this handbook in ten broad thematic parts: the historical origins of money; money, coinage, and the state; trade, money markets, and international currencies; money and metals; monetary experiments; Asian monetary systems; exchange rate regimes; monetary integration; central banking and monetary policy; and aggregate price shocks. In this introduction, we offer for each part some historical context, a few key insights from the literature, and a brief analytical summary of each chapter. Our aim is to draw a map that hopefully will help readers to organize their journey through this very wide and diverse research area

Assessing sticky price models using the Burns and Mitchell approach

This article evaluates sticky-price models using the methods proposed by Burns and Mitchell, focusing on the monetary aspects of the business cycle. Recent research has emphasized the responses of models to shocks at the expense of its systematic component. Whereas sticky-price models have been successful at replicating impulse response functions from vector autoregressions, this article highlights that they are unable to mimic the data for nominal variables. Moreover, the results are robust to the specification of the Phillips curve, including its backward-looking variant, calibrated values and the inclusion of fiscal policy shocks. Since being able to mimic the data is the lowest hurdle a Model must pass, these results pose a challenge for sticky price models.