Evolutionary instability of selfish learning in repeated games

Across many domains of interaction, both natural and artificial, individuals use past experience to shape future behaviors. The results of such learning processes depend on what individuals wish to maximize. A natural objective is one’s own success. However, when two such “selfish” learners interact with each other, the outcome can be detrimental to both, especially when there are conflicts of interest. Here, we explore how a learner can align incentives with a selfish opponent. Moreover, we consider the dynamics that arise when learning rules themselves are subject to evolutionary pressure. By combining extensive simulations and analytical techniques, we demonstrate that selfish learning is unstable in most classical two-player repeated games. If evolution operates on the level of long-run payoffs, selection instead favors learning rules that incorporate social (other-regarding) preferences. To further corroborate these results, we analyze data from a repeated prisoner’s dilemma experiment. We find that selfish learning is insufficient to explain human behavior when there is a trade-off between payoff maximization and fairness

Trust and Risk Relationship Analysis on a Workflow Basis: A Use Case

Trust and risk are often seen in proportion to each other; as such, high trust may induce low risk and vice versa. However, recent research argues that trust and risk relationship is implicit rather than proportional. Considering that trust and risk are implicit, this paper proposes for the first time a novel approach to view trust and risk on a basis of a W3C PROV provenance data model applied in a healthcare domain. We argue that high trust in healthcare domain can be placed in data despite of its high risk, and low trust data can have low risk depending on data quality attributes and its provenance. This is demonstrated by our trust and risk models applied to the BII case study data. The proposed theoretical approach first calculates risk values at each workflow step considering PROV concepts and second, aggregates the final risk score for the whole provenance chain. Different from risk model, trust of a workflow is derived by applying DS/AHP method. The results prove our assumption that trust and risk relationship is implicit

The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background This study aimed to assess the relationship between cold temperature and daily mortality in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), and to explore any differences in the population responses between the two jurisdictions. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to examine this relationship in two adult national populations, between 1984 and 2007. Daily mortality risk was examined in association with exposure to daily maximum temperatures on the same day and up to 6 weeks preceding death, during the winter (December-February) and cold period (October-March), using distributed lag models. Model stratification by age and gender assessed for modification of the cold weather-mortality relationship. Results In the ROI, the impact of cold weather in winter persisted up to 35 days, with a cumulative mortality increase for all-causes of 6.4% (95%CI=4.8%-7.9%) in relation to every 1oC drop in daily maximum temperature, similar increases for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke, and twice as much for respiratory causes. In NI, these associations were less pronounced for CVD causes, and overall extended up to 28 days. Effects of cold weather on mortality increased with age in both jurisdictions, and some suggestive gender differences were observed. Conclusions The study findings indicated strong cold weather-mortality associations in the island of Ireland; these effects were less persistent, and for CVD mortality, smaller in NI than in the ROI. Together with suggestive differences in associations by age and gender between the two Irish jurisdictions, the findings suggest potential contribution of underlying societal differences, and require further exploration. The evidence provided here will hope to contribute to the current efforts to modify fuel policy and reduce winter mortality in Ireland

Blueprint for an intestinal villus: Species‐specific assembly required

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144650/1/wdev317_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144650/2/wdev317.pd

A WS-Agreement Based SLA Implementation for the CMAC Platform

The emerging transformation from a product oriented economy to a service oriented economy based on Cloud environments envisions new scenarios where actual QoS (Quality of Service) mechanisms need to be redesigned. In such scenarios new models to negotiate and manage Service Level Agreements (SLAs) are necessary. An SLA is a formal contract which defines acceptable service levels to be provided by the Service Provider to its customers in measurable terms. SLAs are an essential component in building Cloud systems where commitments and assurances are specified, implemented, monitored and possibly negotiable. This is meant to guarantee that consumers’ service quality expectations can be achieved. In fact, the level of customer satisfaction is crucial in Cloud environments, making SLAs one of the most important and active research topics. This paper presents an SLA implementation for negotiation, monitoring and renegotiation of agreements for Cloud services based on the CMAC (Condition Monitoring on A Cloud) platform. CMAC offers condition monitoring services in cloud computing environments to detect events on assets as well as data storage services

An evidence based clinical aid for cardiovascular disease

Copyright to Australian Family Physician. Reproduced with permission. Permission to reproduce must be sought from the publisher, The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners.Cardiovascular disease is the commonest cause of mortality in Australia, accounting for more than 30% of deaths. Hypertension, diabetes and lipid disorders account for 15.6% of the total problems encountered in general practice. Therefore all doctors should be familiar with well known risk factors for cardiovascular disease, as well as the benefits of interventions with them.Brian R McAvoy; Greg R Fulcher; John V Amerena; Greg W Conner; John F Beltrame; Graeme J Hankey; Anthony C Keech; Brian L Lloyd; Michael L Neale; Carol A Pollock; Krishna Sudhir; Robert D Waltham; Malcolm J Wes

Effect of paper quality on the response rate to a postal survey: A randomised controlled trial. [ISRCTN32032031]

BACKGROUND: Response rates to surveys are declining and this threatens the validity and generalisability of their findings. We wanted to determine whether paper quality influences the response rate to postal surveys METHODS: A postal questionnaire was sent to all members of the British Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (BSGE). Recipients were randomised to receiving the questionnaire printed on standard quality paper or high quality paper. RESULTS: The response rate for the recipients of high quality paper was 43/195 (22%) and 57/194 (29%) for standard quality paper (relative rate of response 0.75, 95% CI 0.33–1.05, p = 0.1 CONCLUSION: The use of high quality paper did not increase response rates to a questionnaire survey of gynaecologists affiliated to an endoscopic society

Public attitudes to inequality in water distribution: Insights from preferences for water reallocation from irrigators to Aboriginal Australians

Water allocation regimes that adjudicate between competing uses are in many countries under pressure to adapt to increasing demands, climate‐driven shortages, expectations for equity of access, as well as societal changes in values and priorities. International authorities expound standards for national allocation regimes that include robust processes for addressing the needs of ‘new entrants' and for varying existing entitlements within sustainable limits. The claims of Indigenous peoples to water represents a newly recognised set of rights and interests that will test the ability of allocation regimes to address the global water governance goal of equity. No study has sought to identify public attitudes or willingness to pay for a fairer allocation of water rights between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous people. We surveyed households from the jurisdictions of Australia's Murray‐Darling Basin, a region undergoing a historic government‐led recovery of water, and found that 69.2% of respondents support the principle of reallocating a small amount of water from irrigators to Aboriginal people via the water market. Using contingent valuation, we estimated households are willing to pay A$21.78 in a one‐off levy. The aggregate value calculated for households in the basin's jurisdictions was A$74.5 million, which is almost double a recent government commitment to fund the acquisition of entitlements for Aboriginal nations of this basin. Results varied by state of residency and affinity with environmental groups. An information treatment that presented narrative accounts from Aboriginal people influenced the results. Insights from this study can inform water reallocation processes

CE13015

In the southwest of Ireland and the Celtic Sea (ICES Divisions VIIaS, g & j),herring acoustic surveys have been carried out since 1989. This survey was undertaken in early October. The geographical confines of the annual 21 day survey program have been modified in recent years to include areas to the south of the main winter spawning grounds in an effort to identify the whereabouts of winter spawning fish before the annual inshore spawning migration. Spatial resolution of acoustic transects has been increased over the entire south coast survey area. The acoustic component of the survey has been further complimented since 2004 by detailed hydrographic and marine mammal and seabird surveys.Funder: Marine Institut