Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis

The effects of changes to the built environment on the mental health and well-being of adults: Systematic review

© 2018 The Authors There is increasing interest in the influence of place on health, and the need to distinguish between environmental and individual level factors. For environmental-level factors, current evidence tends to show associations through cross-sectional and uncontrolled longitudinal analyses rather than through more robust study designs that can provide stronger causal evidence. We restricted this systematic review to randomised (or cluster) randomised controlled trials and controlled before-and-after studies of changes to the built environment. Date of search was December 2016. We identified 14 studies. No evidence was found of an effect on mental health from ‘urban regeneration’ and ‘improving green infrastructure’ studies. Beneficial effects on quality-of-life outcomes from ‘improving green infrastructure’ were found in two studies. One ‘improving green infrastructure’ study reported an improvement in social isolation. Risk-of-bias assessment indicated robust data from only four studies. Overall, evidence for the impact of built environment interventions on mental health and quality-of-life is weak. Future research requires more robust study designs and interdisciplinary research involving public health, planning and urban design experts

Diagnostic test accuracy and cost‐effectiveness of tests for codeletion of chromosomal arms 1p and 19q in people with glioma

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Diagnostic test accuracy). The objectives are as follows: To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of each technique for determining 1p/19q codeletion status in glioma, with a view to determining the most sensitive and specific technique(s)

Does testosterone mediate the relationship between vitamin D and prostate cancer progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE: Observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown an association between vitamin D levels and prostate cancer progression. However, evidence of direct causality is sparse and studies have not examined biological mechanisms, which can provide information on plausibility and strengthen the evidence for causality. METHODS: We used the World Cancer Research Fund International/University of Bristol two-stage framework for mechanistic systematic reviews. In stage one, both text mining of published literature and expert opinion identified testosterone as a plausible biological mechanism. In stage two, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the evidence from both human and animal studies examining the effect of vitamin D on testosterone, and testosterone on advanced prostate cancer (diagnostic Gleason score of ≥ 8, development of metastasis) or prostate cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: A meta-analysis of ten human RCTs showed evidence of an effect of vitamin D on total testosterone (standardised mean difference (SMD) = 0.133, 95% CI =  − 0.003–0.269, I(2) = 0.0%, p = 0.056). Five human RCTs showed evidence of an effect of vitamin D on free testosterone (SMD = 0.173, 95% CI =  − 0.104–0.450, I(2) = 52.4%, p = 0.220). Three human cohort studies of testosterone on advanced prostate cancer or prostate cancer-specific mortality provided inconsistent results. In one study, higher levels of calculated free testosterone were positively associated with advanced prostate cancer or prostate cancer-specific mortality. In contrast, higher levels of dihydrotestosterone were associated with lowering prostate cancer-specific mortality in another study. No animal studies met the study eligibility criteria. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that vitamin D increases levels of total and free testosterone, although the effect of testosterone levels within the normal range on prostate cancer progression is unclear. The role of testosterone as a mechanism between vitamin D and prostate cancer progression remains inconclusive. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10552-022-01591-w

Lack of Evidence for Ribavirin Treatment of Lassa Fever in Systematic Review of Published and Unpublished Studies

Ribavirin has been used widely to treat Lassa fever in West Africa since the 1980s. However, few studies have systematically appraised the evidence for its use. We conducted a systematic review of published and unpublished literature retrieved from electronic databases and gray literature from inception to March 8, 2022. We identified 13 studies of the comparative effectiveness of ribavirin versus no ribavirin treatment on mortality outcomes, including unpublished data from a study in Sierra Leone provided through a US Freedom of Information Act request. Although ribavirin was associated with decreased mortality rates, results of these studies were at critical or serious risk for bias when appraised using the ROBINS-I tool. Important risks for bias related to lack of control for confounders, immortal time bias, and missing outcome data. Robust evidence supporting the use of ribavirin in Lassa fever is lacking. Well-conducted clinical trials to elucidate the effectiveness of ribavirin for Lassa fever are needed

Climatological Study of the Short-Term Variation of the 0 C, -10 C, and -20 C Altitude Levels over the Florida Spaceport

For evaluation of the potential of cloud electrification, it is necessary to know the altitude of the 0, -10 and -20 degree Celsius levels. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station has recorded balloon launch data back to 1989. In support of rocket launches, often multiple balloons are launched within minutes of each other in the 4-6 hours leading up to launch. In the past, temperature data from sondes was typically available every hour or so through the launch countdown, allowing for frequent updates of these critical temperature thresholds. Recently, launch customers are relying on Jimsphere and wind profiler data that do not have a thermodynamic component in the latter 4-6 hours of a countdown. This study compares the altitude differences of the 0, -10 and -20 degree Celsius levels from consecutive balloon pairs not to exceed 6 hours apart. The analysis uses 9685 soundings from 1989 to 2013. Approximately 5 of the time the altitude of the temperature level in question (0, -10, -20 degrees C), varies by more than 500 feet (operationally significant threshold) within 6 hours. This study analyzes the altitude variability as a function of several meteorological parameters, such as change in sonde type, dew point depression, and solar zenith angle. Additionally, the study concludes with impacts to launch operations

MGMT promoter methylation testing to predict overall survival in people with glioblastoma treated with temozolomide: a comprehensive meta-analysis based on a Cochrane Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: The DNA repair protein O6 methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) causes resistance of tumour cells to alkylating agents. It is a predictive biomarker in high grade gliomas treated with temozolomide, however there is no consensus on which test method, methylation sites, and cut-off values to use. METHODS: We performed a Cochrane Review to examine studies using different techniques to measure MGMT and predict survival in glioblastoma patients treated with temozolomide. Eligible longitudinal studies included adults with glioblastoma treated with temozolomide with or without radiotherapy, or surgery; where MGMT status was determined in tumour tissue, and assessed by one or more technique; and where overall survival was an outcome parameter, with sufficient information to estimate hazard ratios. Two or more methods were compared in 32 independent cohorts with 3474 patients. RESULTS: Methylation-specific PCR (MSP) and pyrosequencing (PSQ) techniques were more prognostic than immunohistochemistry for MGMT protein, and PSQ is a slightly better predictor than MSP. CONCLUSIONS: We cannot draw strong conclusions about use of frozen tissue versus formalin-fixed paraffin embedded in MSP and PSQ. Also, our meta-analysis does not provide strong evidence about the best CpG sites or threshold. MSP has been studied mainly for CpG sites 76-80 and 84-87 and Pyrosequencing at CpG sites ranging from 72 to 95. A cut-off threshold of 9% for CpG sites 74-78 performed better than higher thresholds of 28% or 29% in two of three good-quality studies. 190 studies were identified presenting hazard ratios from survival analysis in patients in which MGMT methylation was measured by one technique only

Treatment interventions to maintain abstinence from alcohol in primary care:Systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the most effective interventions in recently detoxified, alcohol dependent patients for implementation in primary care. DESIGN: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. STUDY SELECTION: Randomised controlled trials comparing two or more interventions that could be used in primary care. The population was patients with alcohol dependency diagnosed by standardised clinical tools and who became detoxified within four weeks. DATA EXTRACTION: Outcomes of interest were continuous abstinence from alcohol (effectiveness) and all cause dropouts (as a proxy for acceptability) at least 12 weeks after start of intervention. RESULTS: 64 trials (43 interventions) were included. The median probability of abstinence across placebo arms was 25%. Compared with placebo, the only intervention associated with increased probability of abstinence and moderate certainty evidence was acamprosate (odds ratio 1.86, 95% confidence interval 1.49 to 2.33, corresponding to an absolute probability of 38%). Of the 62 included trials that reported all cause dropouts, interventions associated with a reduced number of dropouts compared with placebo (probability 50%) and moderate certainty of evidence were acamprosate (0.73, 0.62 to 0.86; 42%), naltrexone (0.70, 0.50 to 0.98; 41%), and acamprosate-naltrexone (0.30, 0.13 to 0.67; 17%). Acamprosate was the only intervention associated with moderate confidence in the evidence of effectiveness and acceptability up to 12 months. It is uncertain whether other interventions can help maintain abstinence and reduce dropouts because of low confidence in the evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is lacking for benefit from interventions that could be implemented in primary care settings for alcohol abstinence, other than for acamprosate. More evidence from high quality randomised controlled trials is needed, as are strategies using combined interventions (combinations of drug interventions or drug and psychosocial interventions) to improve treatment of alcohol dependency in primary care. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016049779