Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Whrer Do / Should They Meet in 2011 (and Beyond)?

philosophy of science, philosophy of statistics, decision theory, likelihood, subjective probability, Bayesianism, Bayes theorem, Fisher, Neyman and Pearson, Jeffreys, induction, frequentism, reliability, informativeness

Statistical Scientist Meets a Philosopher of Science: A Conversation

philosophy of science, philosophy of statistics, decision theory, likelihood, subjective probability, Bayesianism, Bayes theorem, Fisher, Neyman and Pearson, Jeffreys, induction, frequentism, reliability, informativeness

Frequentist statistics as a theory of inductive inference

After some general remarks about the interrelation between philosophical and statistical thinking, the discussion centres largely on significance tests. These are defined as the calculation of $p$-values rather than as formal procedures for ``acceptance'' and ``rejection.'' A number of types of null hypothesis are described and a principle for evidential interpretation set out governing the implications of $p$-values in the specific circumstances of each application, as contrasted with a long-run interpretation. A variety of more complicated situations are discussed in which modification of the simple $p$-value may be essential.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000400 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Statistical Significance and its Critics: Practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice?

While the common procedure of statistical significance testing and its accompanying concept of p-values have long been surrounded by controversy, renewed concern has been triggered by the replication crisis in science. Many blame statistical significance tests themselves, and some regard them as sufficiently damaging to scientific practice as to warrant being abandoned. We take a contrary position, arguing that the central criticisms arise from misunderstanding and misusing the statistical tools, and that in fact the purported remedies themselves risk damaging science. We argue that banning the use of p-value thresholds in interpreting data does not diminish but rather exacerbates data-dredging and biasing selection effects. If an account cannot specify outcomes that will not be allowed to count as evidence for a claim—if all thresholds are abandoned—then there is no test of that claim. The contributions of this paper are: • To explain the rival statistical philosophies underlying the ongoing controversy; • To elucidate and reinterpret statistical significance tests, and explain how this reinterpretation ameliorates common misuses and misinterpretations; • To argue why recent recommendations to replace, abandon, or retire statistical significance undermine a central function of statistics in science: to test whether observed patterns in the data are genuine or due to background variability

Traumatic abdominal wall hernias in children: A case for early exploration

Purpose Traumatic abdominal wall hernia (TAWH) is a rare consequence of blunt abdominal trauma (BAT). We examined a series of patients suffering TAWH to evaluate its frequency, rate of associated concurrent intraabdominal injuries (CAI) and correlation with CT, management and outcomes. Methods A Level 1 pediatric trauma center trauma registry was queried for children less than 18 years old suffering TAWH from BAT between 2009 and 2019. Results 9370 patients were admitted after BAT. TAWH was observed in 11 children, at incidence 0.1%. Eight children (73%) were male, at mean age 10 years, and mean ISS of 16. Six cases (55%) were because of MVC, three (27%) impaled by a handlebar or pole, and two (18%) dragged under large machinery. Seven (64%) had a CAI requiring operative or interventional management. Patients with CAI were similar to those without other injury, with 20% and 50% CT scan sensitivity and specificity for detection of associated injury, respectively. Five patients had immediate hernia repair with laparotomy for repair of intraabdominal injury, three had delayed repair, two have asymptomatic unrepaired TAWH, and one resolved spontaneously. Conclusions Children with TAWH have high rates of CAI requiring operative repair. CT scans have low sensitivity and specificity for detecting associated injuries. A high suspicion of injury and low threshold for exploration must be maintained in TAWH cases

Comparative genomics of Burkholderia singularis sp. nov., a low G+C content, free-living bacterium that defies taxonomic dissection of the genus Burkholderia

Four Burkholderia pseudomallei-like isolates of human clinical origin were examined by a polyphasic taxonomic approach that included comparative whole genome analyses. The results demonstrated that these isolates represent a rare and unusual, novel Burkholderia species for which we propose the name B. singularis. The type strain is LMG 28154(T) (=CCUG 65685(T)). Its genome sequence has an average mol% G+C content of 64.34%, which is considerably lower than that of other Burkholderia species. The reduced G+C content of strain LMG 28154(T) was characterized by a genome wide AT bias that was not due to reduced GC-biased gene conversion or reductive genome evolution, but might have been caused by an altered DNA base excision repair pathway. B. singularis can be differentiated from other Burkholderia species by multilocus sequence analysis, MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and a distinctive biochemical profile that includes the absence of nitrate reduction, a mucoid appearance on Columbia sheep blood agar, and a slowly positive oxidase reaction. Comparisons with publicly available whole genome sequences demonstrated that strain TSV85, an Australian water isolate, also represents the same species and therefore, to date, B. singularis has been recovered from human or environmental samples on three continents

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: A manifesto

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide in the 'post-normal' regime

Statistical inference and the replication crisis

The replication crisis has prompted many to call for statistical reform within the psychological sciences. Here we examine issues within Frequentist statistics that may have led to the replication crisis, and we examine the alternative—Bayesian statistics—that many have suggested as a replacement. The Frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach offer radically different perspectives on evidence and inference with the Frequentist approach prioritising error control and the Bayesian approach offering a formal method for quantifying the relative strength of evidence for hypotheses. We suggest that rather than mere statistical reform, what is needed is a better understanding of the different modes of statistical inference and a better understanding of how statistical inference relates to scientific inference