High-order volterra model predictive control and its application to a nonlinear polymerisation process

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently found wide acceptance in the process industry, but the existing design and implementation methods are restricted to linear process models. A chemical process involves, however, severe nonlinearity which cannot be ignored in practice. This paper aims to solve this nonlinear control problem by extending MPC to nonlinear models. It develops an analytical framework for nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC), and also offers a third-order Volterra series based nonparametric nonlinear modelling technique for NMPC design which relieves practising engineers from the need for first deriving a physical-principles based model. An on-line realisation technique for implementing the NMPC is also developed. The NMPC is then applied to a Mitsubishi Chemicals polymerisation reaction process. The results show that this nonlinear MPC technique is feasible and very effective. It considerably outperforms linear and low-order Volterra model based methods. The advantages of the approach developed lie not only in control performance superior to existing NMPC methods, but also in relieving practising engineers from the need for deriving an analytical model and then converting it to a Volterra model through which the model can only be obtained up to the second order

A comparison of GC-FID and PTR-MS toluene measurements in ambient air under conditions of enhanced monoterpene loading

Toluene was measured using both a gas chromatographic system (GC), with a flame ionization detector (FID), and a proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) at the AIRMAP atmospheric monitoring station Thompson Farm (THF) in rural Durham, NH during the summer of 2004. Simultaneous measurements of monoterpenes, including alpha- and beta-pinene, camphene, Delta(3)-carene, and d-limonene, by GC-FID demonstrated large enhancements in monoterpene mixing ratios relative to toluene, with median and maximum enhancement ratios of similar to 2 and similar to 30, respectively. A detailed comparison between the GC-FID and PTR-MS toluene measurements was conducted to test the specificity of PTR-MS for atmospheric toluene measurements under conditions often dominated by biogenic emissions. We derived quantitative estimates of potential interferences in the PTR-MS toluene measurements related to sampling and analysis of monoterpenes, including fragmentation of the monoterpenes and some of their primary carbonyl oxidation products via reactions with H(3)O(+), O(2)(+) and NO(+) in the PTR-MS drift tube. The PTR-MS and GC-FID toluene measurements were in good quantitative agreement and the two systems tracked one another well from the instrumental limits of detection to maximum mixing ratios of similar to 0.5 ppbv. A correlation plot of the PTR-MS versus GC-FID toluene measurements was described by the least squares regression equation y=(1.13 +/- 0.02)x-(0.008 +/- 0.003) ppbv, suggesting a small similar to 13% positive bias in the PTR-MS measurements. The bias corresponded with a similar to 0.055 ppbv difference at the highest measured toluene level. The two systems agreed quantitatively within the combined 1 sigma measurement precisions for 60% of the measurements. Discrepancies in the measured mixing ratios were not well correlated with enhancements in the monoterpenes. Better quantitative agreement between the two systems was obtained by correcting the PTR-MS measurements for contributions from monoterpene fragmentation in the PTR-MS drift tube; however, the improvement was minor (\u3c10%). Interferences in the PTRMS measurements from fragmentation of the monoterpene oxidation products pinonaldehyde, caronaldehyde and alpha-pinene oxide were also likely negligible. A relatively large and variable toluene background in the PTR-MS instrument likely drove the measurement bias; however, the precise contribution was difficult to accurately quantify and thus was not corrected for in this analysis. The results from THF suggest that toluene can be reliably quantified by PTR-MS using our operating conditions (drift tube pressure, temperature and voltage of 2.0 mbar, 45 degrees C and 600V, respectively) under the ambient compositions probed. This work extends the range of field conditions under which PTR-MS validation studies have been conducted

The Impact of Phase Equilibrium Cloud Models on GCM Simulations of GJ~1214b

We investigate the impact of clouds on the atmosphere of GJ~1214b using the radiatively-coupled, phase-equilibrium cloud model {\sc EddySed} coupled to the {\sc Unified Model} general circulation model. We find that, consistent with previous investigations, high metallicity ($100\times$ solar) and clouds with large vertical extents (a sedimentation factor of $f_\mathrm{sed} = 0.1$) are required to best match the observations, although metallicities even higher than those investigated here may be required to improve agreement further. We additionally find that in our case which best matches the observations ($f_\mathrm{sed}=0.1$), the velocity structures change relative to the clear sky case with the formation of a superrotating jet being suppressed, although further investigation is required to understand the cause of the suppression. The increase in cloud extent with $f_\mathrm{sed}$ results in a cooler planet due to a higher albedo, causing the atmosphere to contract. This also results in a reduced day-night contrast seen in the phase curves, although the introduction of cloud still results in a reduction of the phase offset. We additionally investigate the impact the the {\sc Unified Model}'s pseudo-spherical irradiation scheme on the calculation of heating rates, finding that the introduction of nightside shortwave heating results in slower mid-latitude jets compared to the plane parallel irradiation scheme used in previous works. We also consider the impact of a gamma distribution, as opposed to a log-normal distribution, for the distribution of cloud particle radii and find the impact to be relatively minor.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

Injuries in Quidditch:A Prospective Study from a Complete UK Season

Background : Quidditch is a mixed-gender, full-contact sport founded in the USA in 2005, played worldwide by an estimated 25,000 players. It is one of the few mixed-gender full-contact sports, yet there remain few published studies regarding injury rates and patterns. A previous study suggested that the overall rate of injury in quidditch is in line with other contact sports, however raised concerns that female players were sustaining a higher rate of concussion when compared to male players. Purpose : To examine injury rates and injury patterns in UK quidditch athletes over the course of a single season. Study design: Prospective epidemiological study. Methods : Data were prospectively collected by professional first aid staff for the 2017-18 season spanning all major UK tournaments, involving 699 athletes. Anonymized player demographics were collected by an online survey. Time loss injury rates were measured per 1000 athletic exposures (AEs) and hours of play. Results: The overall time loss injury rate was 20.5 per 1000 hours or 8.0 per 1000 AEs. The combined rate of concussion was 7.3 per 1000 hours or 2.8 per 1000 AEs. There was no statistical difference between time loss injuries in males (20.9/1000 hours and 8.1/1000 AEs) and females (13.9/1000 hours and 5.4/1000 AEs) (p=0.30) and no statistical difference between concussion rates in males (n=7) and females (n=4) (p=0.60). Conclusions : Total time loss injury rates in quidditch appear to be comparable with other full-contact sports such as football. The rate of concussions for both males and females appear higher when compared to other contact sports. Level of evidence : 3Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Performance of Sensitivity based NMPC Updates in Automotive Applications

In this work we consider a half car model which is subject to unknown but measurable disturbances. To control this system, we impose a combination of model predictive control without stabilizing terminal constraints or cost to generate a nominal solution and sensitivity updates to handle the disturbances. For this approach, stability of the resulting closed loop can be guaranteed using a relaxed Lyapunov argument on the nominal system and Lipschitz conditions on the open loop change of the optimal value function and the stage costs. For the considered example, the proposed approach is realtime applicable and corresponding results show significant performance improvements of the updated solution with respect to comfort and handling properties.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure

Nonparametric nonlinear model predictive control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently found wide acceptance in industrial applications, but its potential has been much impeded by linear models due to the lack of a similarly accepted nonlinear modeling or databased technique. Aimed at solving this problem, the paper addresses three issues: (i) extending second-order Volterra nonlinear MPC (NMPC) to higher-order for improved prediction and control; (ii) formulating NMPC directly with plant data without needing for parametric modeling, which has hindered the progress of NMPC; and (iii) incorporating an error estimator directly in the formulation and hence eliminating the need for a nonlinear state observer. Following analysis of NMPC objectives and existing solutions, nonparametric NMPC is derived in discrete-time using multidimensional convolution between plant data and Volterra kernel measurements. This approach is validated against the benchmark van de Vusse nonlinear process control problem and is applied to an industrial polymerization process by using Volterra kernels of up to the third order. Results show that the nonparametric approach is very efficient and effective and considerably outperforms existing methods, while retaining the original data-based spirit and characteristics of linear MPC

Human immunodeficiency virus infection in Northern Ireland 1980-1989.

To 31st December 1989, 71 persons are known to have attended medical practitioners in Northern Ireland with a diagnosis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. Twenty-one of these persons have had the diagnosis of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and 11 have died. The distribution of reports in the "at risk" categories of homosexual/bisexual males, injecting drug users, heterosexual males and females was significantly different (p less than 0.001) from those reported in the United Kingdom as a whole. Of tests for HIV infection carried out in patients attending the genitourinary medicine department of the Royal Victoria Hospital between 1987-1989, 0.16% have been positive. The prognostic value of the T4 lymphocyte count at presentation for the subsequent development of AIDS was significant (p = 0.0011). The commonest AIDS indicator disease diagnosed was Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia which was seen in seven of the 21 patients (33%)

Sentinel seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Gauteng Province, South Africa, August - October 2020

Background. Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) for tracking the COVID-19 epidemic are lacking for most African countries.Objectives. To determine the prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in a sentinel cohort of patient samples received for routine testing at tertiary laboratories in Johannesburg, South Africa.Methods. This sentinel study was conducted using remnant serum samples received at three National Health Laboratory Service laboratories in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) district. Collection was from 1 August to 31 October 2020. We extracted accompanying laboratory results for glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), creatinine, HIV, viral load and CD4 T-cell count. An anti-SARS-CoV-2 targeting the nucleocapsid (N) protein of the coronavirus with higher affinity for IgM and IgG antibodies was used. We reported crude as well as population-weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalence. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether age, sex, HIV and diabetic status were associated with increased risk for seropositivity.Results. A total of 6 477 samples were analysed, the majority (n=5 290) from the CoJ region. After excluding samples with no age or sex stated, the model population-weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalence for the CoJ (n=4 393) was 27.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.4 - 28.6). Seroprevalence was highest in those aged 45 - 49 years (29.8%; 95% CI 25.5 - 35.0) and in those from the most densely populated areas of the CoJ. Risk for seropositivity was highest in those aged 18 - 49 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.52; 95% CI 1.13 - 2.13; p=0.0005) and in samples from diabetics (aOR 1.36; 95% CI 1.13 - 1.63; p=0.001).Conclusions. Our study conducted between the first and second waves of the pandemic shows high levels of current infection among patients attending public health facilities in Gauteng Province