A virtuous combination of structural and skill analysis to defeat organized crime

The paper proposes the implementation of new and more effective policies to contrast organized crime. In particular, it develops a simple algorithm to estimate the resilience of criminal networks and to compare the effects of different attack strategies used by police forces. Obtained results show the high resilience ability of criminal organizations, suggesting a virtuous combination of structural and skill analysis. Moreover, the paper suggests public policies and legal instruments to discourage and fight all kinds of mafia contiguity currently pursued with toothless weapons

Type I interferon/IRF7 axis instigates chemotherapy-induced immunological dormancy in breast cancer

Neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapies provide survival benefits to breast cancer patients, in particular in estrogen receptor negative (ER-) cancers, by reducing rates of recurrences. It is assumed that the benefits of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy are due to the killing of disseminated, residual cancer cells, however, there is no formal evidence for it. Here, we provide experimental evidence that ER- breast cancer cells that survived high-dose Doxorubicin and Methotrexate based chemotherapies elicit a state of immunological dormancy. Hallmark of this dormant phenotype is the sustained activation of the IRF7/IFN-beta/IFNAR axis subsisting beyond chemotherapy treatment. Upregulation of IRF7 in treated cancer cells promoted resistance to chemotherapy, reduced cell growth and induced switching of the response from a myeloid derived suppressor cell-dominated immune response to a CD4(+)/CD8(+) T cell-dependent anti-tumor response. IRF7 silencing in tumor cells or systemic blocking of IFNAR reversed the state of dormancy, while spontaneous escape from dormancy was associated with loss of IFN-beta production. Presence of IFN-beta in the circulation of ER- breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant Epirubicin chemotherapy correlated with a significantly longer distant metastasis-free survival. These findings establish chemotherapy-induced immunological dormancy in ER- breast cancer as a novel concept for (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy activity, and implicate sustained activation of the IRF7/IFN-beta/IFNAR pathway in this effect. Further, IFN-beta emerges as a potential predictive biomarker and therapeutic molecule to improve outcome of ER- breast cancer patients treated with (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy.Peer reviewe

Trasversalità e resilienza delle reti criminali. Verso l'elaborazione di nuove politiche di prevenzione e repressione della contiguità mafiosa

Il lavoro analizza la pervasiva commistione tra sfera legale e illegale generata da intrecci e sovrapposizione di interessi da parte della politica nazionale, locale e delle organizzazioni criminali nell’ambito dell’erogazione dei servizi di welfare. In particolare il lavoro analizza la struttura di un reticolo criminale costruito per la produzione di servizi alla persona e operante all’interno di alcuni ambiti territoriali sociali della provincia di Caserta. L’analisi dopo aver delineato le caratteristiche del network, si concentra sui fattori di resilienza e propone politiche di contrasto volte a generarne la disarticolazione con l’uso efficiente di risorse economiche ed umane. I dati utilizzati per l’analisi delle caratteristiche del network criminale provengono dalle ordinanze di custodia cautelare emesse dal Tribunale di Napoli ed evidenziano la capacità di networking dell’organizzazione criminale nel creare relazioni e connivenze con il mondo della politica (a livello locale e nazionale) e dell’imprenditoria sociale. L’uso della social network analysis evidenzia una elevata capacità di resistenza alle indagini da parte delle forze di polizia, risultando resiliente alle attività di contrasto tradizionali basate esclusivamente su strumenti repressivi volti a disarticolare la rete con l’arresto dei capiclan. L’analisi suggerisce l’adozione di nuove e diversificate strategie di contrasto che fanno ricorso ai concetti del capitale sociale e soprattutto del capitale umano

Mercati, attività e impiego di capitale umano del clan dei Casalesi

Criminal networks build their strength on trusted relationships between members who determine the production of services such as protection (Skaperdas 2001) or privileged access to strategic resources, social (Sciarrone 2009) and economic (Arlacchi 1983). These activities are often conducted through the intermediation of subjects who offer their competencies and services in an “opaque” or irregular way. Such relationships are strategic for the purposes of criminal organizations and cannot be considered as simple networks of interpersonal relations between agents that operate in the “shadow” or in a criminal context (Ozgul-Erdem 2015). These are relationships that have peculiar characteristics that can not be underestimated or ignored when effective measures or policies of prevention and contraction need to be implemented. All this is closely related to peculiar resistance and adaptation capabilities, the “resilience”, that is the elasticity and adaptability of bodies, passions, systems, and even territories (Ferrara-Villani 2015). Criminal organisations are, in fact, considered to be their topological feature, an extreme and very interesting case for failure resilient networks, such as the so-called “cascading failures”. The paper analyses how criminal organisations belonging to the Casalesi clan use the violence in a “gentle” way for the creation of criminal networks to pursue illicit purposes through the direct or indirect management of economic activities aimed at maximizing their profits. In fact, while in other territories the internal contrast of the camorra clans is quite strong and durable causing many dead, in the Casalesi reign it seems dominating a quiet and the clan is often perceived as job-maker. The true strength of these organizations seems to be the strategic use of highly qualified human capital and the penetration in the economy and politics. This strategy weakens traditional contrast policies based on the repression of mafia phenomena. The paper aims to deepen the potential, operational advantages and limits of social network analysis and complex network analysis to identifying more effective and efficient public policies for combating the mafia phenomenon. In particular, it will try to verify if and to what extent the contrast strategies using human capital (i.e. the level of mutual trust and the precious wealth of knowledge, skills and technical skills of consultants and service providers, but often also only services to criminal organizations) could be used in conjunction with those based on social capital to reduce or neutralise the capacity for resistance and adaptation of criminal organisations. The study of these factors is crucial to the development of a valid index of resilience of criminal networks, but above all to designing new and more effective and efficient crime policies

CAPITALE SOCIALE E NUDGE PER MIGLIORARE FUNZIONAMENTO E PERFORMANCE DELLE AMMINISTRAZIONI DI PUBBLICA SICUREZZA

In questo scritto si intende mostrare come l’integrazione del capitale sociale nei programmi e nelle strategie d’intervento delle amministrazioni pubbliche possa migliorarne il rendimento. Ad oggi esiste una comprensione limitata delle potenzialità del capitale sociale e di come le diverse politiche pubbliche potrebbero interagire con esso. Per tale ragione nessun governo ha mai adottato in modo sistematico una simile strategia d’intervento. Eppure, le possibilità applicative di questo approccio sarebbero molteplici e non riguardano esclusivamente le politiche sociali. Questo, ovviamente, non vuol dire che il capitale sociale sia la cura miracolosa per tutti i problemi che affliggono le società contemporanee. Bisogna essere consapevoli del fatto che i social network non funzionano nel vuoto e, quindi, non sono sempre l’unica variabile da cui dipende la soluzione di un particolare problema. Essi molto spesso funzionano in combinazione con altre risorse e, nel caso delle politiche pubbliche, proprio l’interazione fra tali risorse ed il capitale sociale potrebbe essere decisiva. A volte, inoltre, il capitale sociale può essere un fattore influente solo se supera determinati valori-soglia e se agisce in combinazione con specifiche variabili. L’originalità di questo scritto sta nel chiarire ulteriormente come dovrebbe funzionare in concreto un social capital approach to public policies. In particolare, l’intento del lavoro è quello di valutarne le possibilità applicative nell’ambito della programmazione e valutazione delle politiche pubbliche di sicurezza

How the Resilience Analysis of Criminal Networks May Help to Improve the Effectiveness of Public Policies to Contrast Organized Crime

This paper aims to show in which way the joint use of analysis techniques of the complex networks and the economic theory of human capital might lead to the implementation of new and more effective policies to contrast organized crime. For this purpose, it employs an interdisciplinary approach and utilises the techniques and concepts of Social Network Analysis to identify the essential properties differentiating criminal networks from other social networks and develop a reliable indicator of their robustness and resilience to law enforcement activities. This theoretical premise will serve, therefore, to set up the empirical analysis of the structure of existing interpersonal relationships inside two criminal networks engaged respectively in international drug trafficking and in the local providing of social welfare services to the person. The study of the above mentioned networks is based on the analysis of judicial acts issued in the context of two recent police operations successfully completed. The results highlight the remarkable ability of networking and the resilience to law enforcement activities of the examined criminal organizations, suggesting the adoption of new and diversified repressive policies based on the analysis of human capital which these organizations can use for their own purposes

Analisi di resilienza delle reti complesse ed efficacia delle politiche pubbliche di contrasto alla criminalità organizzata

Questo scritto intende mostrare in che modo l’utilizzo combinato delle tecniche di analisi delle reti complesse e dell’economia del capitale umano potrebbe condurre alla realizzazione di nuove e più efficaci politiche di contrasto al crimine organizzato. A questo scopo, il lavoro utilizza un approccio interdisciplinare e studia, avvalendosi delle tecniche e dei concetti della Social Network Analysis, la struttura delle relazioni interpersonali esistenti all’interno di due network criminali, impegnati rispettivamente nel traffico internazionale di stupefacenti e nella fornitura locale di servizi socio-assistenziali alla persona. Lo studio dei predetti reticoli si basa sull’analisi dei provvedimenti emessi dall’autorità giudiziaria nell’ambito di due recenti operazioni di polizia ultimate con successo. I risultati ottenuti evidenziano la notevole capacità di networking e la resilienza alle attività di contrasto delle organizzazioni criminali prese in esame, suggerendo l’adozione di nuove e diversificate politiche di repressione, basate sull’analisi del capitale umano di cui queste organizzazioni possono disporre

The Gentl Use of Violence and the Human Capital Recruitment Strategies of the Casalesi Clan

Criminal networks build their strength on relationships of trust between members, which allow for the production of services such as protection or access to strategic resources, whether social or economic. Their activities are often carried out thanks to the role played by individuals who offer their skills and services in an “opaque” or irregular way. Such relationships are strategic and cannot be considered in terms of mere networks of interpersonal relations between agents that operate in the shadows or the criminal arena, nor can they be underestimated or ignored when effective prevention measures and policies are to be implemented. This paper analyses how criminal groups belonging to the Casalesi clan - a criminal organisation that has imposed the yoke of its power across a large territory in the area of Caserta, but is also active at a wider level - use violence in a gentle way, as confirmed by the low levels of violence currently recorded in the area, in order to pursue illicit goals through a direct or indirect management of economic activities aimed at maximising their profits. The true strength of this clan seems to be its strategic use of highly qualified human capital and its penetration into the economy and politics. This strategy weakens traditional law enforcement policies and stresses the need to develop more effective ones

Economia del crimine organizzato e politiche di contrasto

Il volume, scritto mentre l’Italia ed il mondo intero affrontavano la più grande emergenza sanitaria mai vissuta dal secondo dopoguerra ad oggi e paragonabile - per gli effetti che probabilmente avrà - solo alla grande crisi economica del ꞌ29, analizza il fenomeno del crimine organizzato, le sue cause e i suoi metodi operativi. La scelta razionale di compiere attività illegali è studiata attraverso il ricorso all’analisi socio-economica e di rete allo scopo di comprendere i meccanismi che consentono alle mafie di espandersi e di propagarsi all’interno della società civile e dell’economia soggiogandole e devitalizzandole come un virus mortale. Con l’ausilio della Social Network Analysis e la ricostruzione di alcuni reticoli criminali generati da organizzazioni criminali camorristiche, il volume mostra che è possibile progettare politiche di contrasto più efficaci ed efficienti di quelle finora attuate, ma soprattutto più adeguate alla natura del fenomeno da debellare. E’ convinzione degli autori, infatti, che la pericolosità delle organizzazioni criminali è determinata dalla loro capacità pervasiva e diffusiva, che li rende molto somiglianti ai virus e alle malattie infettive e richiede, pertanto, come in questi casi, un approccio proattivo e di rete

Public Policies to Strike the Resilience of Criminal Organizations

The techniques offered by the analysis of social networks have rapidly increased in the last years in the study of criminal networks and their results influence the construction of policies to defeat them. In this way, the concept of social network was applied to the study of crime and to the several forms in which it operates and organizes its activities, but above all to the analysis of transnational crime and terrorist networks. As it is well known criminal organizations covert social networks to pursue illegal purposes concealing their shady businesses and maximizing their utility function. The members of criminal networks trust one another and look for protection or for a privileged access to certain social as well as economic resources, often through the mediation of individuals who offer their services in a “non-transparent” or irregular way. Therefore, they cannot be considered as simple networks of interpersonal relationships among individuals operating “in the shadow”, or anyway in a criminal contest. In fact, criminal networks have peculiar characteristics which cannot be underestimated or ignored in trying to develop effective preventive and contrast measures and tools to combat them. Several studies highlighted how criminal and terrorist organizations carry out their activities in dynamic contexts, in which the competitive pressure and repressive intervention by the governments constantly test their existence. This is the reason why, in order to survive and keep on growing up, they had to develop a high resistance ability as well as a high adaptability to the changing conditions of the environment they operate in. The nature and source of such abilities of criminal and terrorist organizations have been deeply analysed in several researches. In fact, such organizations, due to their topological characteristics, are considered as an extreme and very interesting case of failure resilient networks, i.e. networks which are resilient towards the so-called “cascade failures”. This paper will focus on this topic analysing the structure and resilience ability of three criminal networks, the first one set up for international drug and psychotropic substance trafficking, the second one operating in the field of the provision of public services (Healthcare) and the third composed for the aggression of public contracts for the restoration of public monuments of architectural value. The analysis is carried out using an interdisciplinary approach as well as the typical techniques and concepts of the Social Network Analysis in order to develop a reliable indicator of Criminal Network Resilience. Obviously, the use of this indicator requires an adaptation of Criminal Investigation Knowledge Systems or Criminal Investigation Expert Systems where they already exist, or their ex novo introduction in the countries where they are missing