New heuristics for the stochastic tactical railway maintenance problem

Efficient methods have been proposed in the literature for the management of a set of railway maintenance operations. However, these methods consider maintenance operations as deterministic and known a priori. In the stochastic tactical railway maintenance problem (STRMP), maintenance operations are not known in advance. In fact, since future track conditions can only be predicted, maintenance operations become stochastic. STRMP is based on a rolling horizon. For each month of the rolling horizon, an adaptive plan must be addressed. Each adaptive plan becomes deterministic, since it consists of a particular subproblem of the whole STRMP. Nevertheless, an exact resolution of each plan along the rolling horizon would be too time-consuming. Therefore, a heuristic approach that can provide efficient solutions within a reasonable computational time is required. Although STRMP has already been introduced in the literature, little work has been done in terms of solution methods and computational results. The main contributions of this paper include new methodology developments, a linear model for the deterministic subproblem, three efficient heuristics for the fast and effective resolution of each deterministic subproblem, and extensive computational results

The k-statistics approach to epidemiology

A great variety of complex physical, natural and artificial systems are governed by statistical distributions, which often follow a standard exponential function in the bulk, while their tail obeys the Pareto power law. The recently introduced $\kappa$-statistics framework predicts distribution functions with this feature. A growing number of applications in different fields of investigation are beginning to prove the relevance and effectiveness of $\kappa$-statistics in fitting empirical data. In this paper, we use $\kappa$-statistics to formulate a statistical approach for epidemiological analysis. We validate the theoretical results by fitting the derived $\kappa$-Weibull distributions with data from the plague pandemic of 1417 in Florence as well as data from the COVID-19 pandemic in China over the entire cycle that concludes in April 16, 2020. As further validation of the proposed approach we present a more systematic analysis of COVID-19 data from countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom, obtaining very good agreement between theoretical predictions and empirical observations. For these countries we also study the entire first cycle of the pandemic which extends until the end of July 2020. The fact that both the data of the Florence plague and those of the Covid-19 pandemic are successfully described by the same theoretical model, even though the two events are caused by different diseases and they are separated by more than 600 years, is evidence that the $\kappa$-Weibull model has universal features.Comment: 15 pages, 1 table, 5 figure

Serum IgG against Simian Virus 40 antigens are hampered by high levels of sHLA-G in patients affected by inflammatory neurological diseases, as multiple sclerosis

Background: Many investigators detected the simian polyomavirus SV40 footprints in human brain tumors and neurologic diseases and recently it has been indicated that SV40 seems to be associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) disease. Interestingly, SV40 interacts with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules for cell entry. HLA class I antigens, in particular non-classical HLA-G molecules, characterized by an immune-regulatory function, are involved in MS disease, and the levels of these molecules are modified according with the disease status. Objective: We investigated in serum samples, from Italian patients affected by MS, other inflammatory diseases (OIND), non-inflammatory neurological diseases (NIND) and healthy subjects (HS), SV40-antibody and soluble sHLA-G and the association between SV40-prevalence and sHLA-G levels. Methods: ELISA tests were used for SV40-antibodies detection and sHLA-G quantitation in serum samples. Results: The presence of SV40 antibodies was observed in 6 % of patients affected by MS (N = 4/63), 10 % of OIND (N = 8/77) and 15 % of NIND (N = 9/59), which is suggestive of a lower prevalence in respect to HS (22 %, N = 18/83). MS patients are characterized by higher sHLA-G serum levels (13.9 \ub1 0.9 ng/ml; mean \ub1 St. Error) in comparison with OIND (6.7 \ub1 0.8 ng/ml), NIND (2.9 \ub1 0.4 ng/ml) and HS (2.6 \ub1 0.7 ng/ml) subjects. Interestingly, we observed an inverse correlation between SV40 antibody prevalence and sHLA-G serum levels in MS patients. Conclusion: The data obtained showed a low prevalence of SV40 antibodies in MS patients. These results seems to be due to a generalized status of inability to counteract SV40 infection via antibody production. In particular, we hypothesize that SV40 immune-inhibitory direct effect and the presence of high levels of the immune-inhibitory HLA-G molecules could co-operate in impairing B lymphocyte activation towards SV40 specific peptides

Association of kidney disease measures with risk of renal function worsening in patients with type 1 diabetes

Background: Albuminuria has been classically considered a marker of kidney damage progression in diabetic patients and it is routinely assessed to monitor kidney function. However, the role of a mild GFR reduction on the development of stage 653 CKD has been less explored in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. Aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic role of kidney disease measures, namely albuminuria and reduced GFR, on the development of stage 653 CKD in a large cohort of patients affected by T1DM. Methods: A total of 4284 patients affected by T1DM followed-up at 76 diabetes centers participating to the Italian Association of Clinical Diabetologists (Associazione Medici Diabetologi, AMD) initiative constitutes the study population. Urinary albumin excretion (ACR) and estimated GFR (eGFR) were retrieved and analyzed. The incidence of stage 653 CKD (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) or eGFR reduction > 30% from baseline was evaluated. Results: The mean estimated GFR was 98 \ub1 17 mL/min/1.73m2 and the proportion of patients with albuminuria was 15.3% (n = 654) at baseline. About 8% (n = 337) of patients developed one of the two renal endpoints during the 4-year follow-up period. Age, albuminuria (micro or macro) and baseline eGFR < 90 ml/min/m2 were independent risk factors for stage 653 CKD and renal function worsening. When compared to patients with eGFR > 90 ml/min/1.73m2 and normoalbuminuria, those with albuminuria at baseline had a 1.69 greater risk of reaching stage 3 CKD, while patients with mild eGFR reduction (i.e. eGFR between 90 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) show a 3.81 greater risk that rose to 8.24 for those patients with albuminuria and mild eGFR reduction at baseline. Conclusions: Albuminuria and eGFR reduction represent independent risk factors for incident stage 653 CKD in T1DM patients. The simultaneous occurrence of reduced eGFR and albuminuria have a synergistic effect on renal function worsening

Insight from an Italian Delphi Consensus on EVAR feasibility outside the instruction for use: the SAFE EVAR Study

BACKGROUND: The SAfety and FEasibility of standard EVAR outside the instruction for use (SAFE-EVAR) Study was designed to define the attitude of Italian vascular surgeons towards the use of standard endovascular repair (EVAR) for infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) outside the instruction for use (IFU) through a Delphi consensus endorsed by the Italian Society of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery (Societa Italiana di Chirurgia Vascolare ed Endovascolare - SICVE). METHODS: A questionnaire consisting of 26 statements was developed, validated by an 18 -member Advisory Board, and then sent to 600 Italian vascular surgeons. The Delphi process was structured in three subsequent rounds which took place between April and June 2023. In the first two rounds, respondents could indicate one of the following five degrees of agreement: 1) strongly agree; 2) partially agree; 3) neither agree nor disagree; 4) partially disagree; 5) strongly disagree; while in the third round only three different choices were proposed: 1) agree; 2) neither agree nor disagree; 3) disagree. We considered the consensus reached when >70% of respondents agreed on one of the options. After the conclusion of each round, a report describing the percentage distribution of the answers was sent to all the participants. RESULTS: Two -hundred -forty-four (40.6%) Italian Vascular Surgeons agreed to participate the first round of the Delphi Consensus; the second and the third rounds of the Delphi collected 230 responders (94.3% of the first -round responders). Four statements (15.4%) reached a consensus in the first rounds. Among the 22 remaining statements, one more consensus (3.8%) was achieved in the second round. Finally, seven more statements (26.9%) reached a consensus in the simplified last round. Globally, a consensus was reached for almost half of the proposed statements (46.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The relatively low consensus rate obtained in this Delphi seems to confirm the discrepancy between Guideline recommendations and daily clinical practice. The data collected could represent the source for a possible guidelines' revision and the proposal of specific Good Practice Points in all those aspects with only little evidence available

Comparative effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K antagonists for atrial fibrillation in clinical practice: GLORIA-AF Registry

Background and purpose: Prospectively collected data comparing the safety and effectiveness of individual non-vitamin K antagonists (NOACs) are lacking. Our objective was to directly compare the effectiveness and safety of NOACs in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: In GLORIA-AF, a large, prospective, global registry program, consecutive patients with newly diagnosed AF were followed for 3 years. The comparative analyses for (1) dabigatran vs rivaroxaban or apixaban and (2) rivaroxaban vs apixaban were performed on propensity score (PS)-matched patient sets. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes of interest. Results: The GLORIA-AF Phase III registry enrolled 21,300 patients between January 2014 and December 2016. Of these, 3839 were prescribed dabigatran, 4015 rivaroxaban and 4505 apixaban, with median ages of 71.0, 71.0, and 73.0 years, respectively. In the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for dabigatran vs rivaroxaban were, for stroke: 1.27 (0.79–2.03), major bleeding 0.59 (0.40–0.88), myocardial infarction 0.68 (0.40–1.16), and all-cause death 0.86 (0.67–1.10). For the comparison of dabigatran vs apixaban, in the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs were, for stroke 1.16 (0.76–1.78), myocardial infarction 0.84 (0.48–1.46), major bleeding 0.98 (0.63–1.52) and all-cause death 1.01 (0.79–1.29). For the comparison of rivaroxaban vs apixaban, in the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs were, for stroke 0.78 (0.52–1.19), myocardial infarction 0.96 (0.63–1.45), major bleeding 1.54 (1.14–2.08), and all-cause death 0.97 (0.80–1.19). Conclusions: Patients treated with dabigatran had a 41% lower risk of major bleeding compared with rivaroxaban, but similar risks of stroke, MI, and death. Relative to apixaban, patients treated with dabigatran had similar risks of stroke, major bleeding, MI, and death. Rivaroxaban relative to apixaban had increased risk for major bleeding, but similar risks for stroke, MI, and death. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01468701, NCT01671007. Date of registration: September 2013

Anticoagulant selection in relation to the SAMe-TT2R2 score in patients with atrial fibrillation. the GLORIA-AF registry

Aim: The SAMe-TT2R2 score helps identify patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) likely to have poor anticoagulation control during anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and those with scores >2 might be better managed with a target-specific oral anticoagulant (NOAC). We hypothesized that in clinical practice, VKAs may be prescribed less frequently to patients with AF and SAMe-TT2R2 scores >2 than to patients with lower scores. Methods and results: We analyzed the Phase III dataset of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF), a large, global, prospective global registry of patients with newly diagnosed AF and ≥1 stroke risk factor. We compared baseline clinical characteristics and antithrombotic prescriptions to determine the probability of the VKA prescription among anticoagulated patients with the baseline SAMe-TT2R2 score >2 and ≤ 2. Among 17,465 anticoagulated patients with AF, 4,828 (27.6%) patients were prescribed VKA and 12,637 (72.4%) patients an NOAC: 11,884 (68.0%) patients had SAMe-TT2R2 scores 0-2 and 5,581 (32.0%) patients had scores >2. The proportion of patients prescribed VKA was 28.0% among patients with SAMe-TT2R2 scores >2 and 27.5% in those with scores ≤2. Conclusions: The lack of a clear association between the SAMe-TT2R2 score and anticoagulant selection may be attributed to the relative efficacy and safety profiles between NOACs and VKAs as well as to the absence of trial evidence that an SAMe-TT2R2-guided strategy for the selection of the type of anticoagulation in NVAF patients has an impact on clinical outcomes of efficacy and safety. The latter hypothesis is currently being tested in a randomized controlled trial. Clinical trial registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov//Unique identifier: NCT01937377, NCT01468701, and NCT01671007

The risk of stroke recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation and reduced ejection fraction

Abstract Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and congestive heart failure often coexist due to their shared risk factors leading to potential worse outcome, particularly cerebrovascular events. The aims of this study were to calculate the rates of ischemic and severe bleeding events in ischemic stroke patients having both AF and reduced ejection fraction (rEF) (⩽40%), compared to ischemic stroke patients with AF but without rEF. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis that drew data from prospective studies. The primary outcome was the composite of either ischemic (stroke or systemic embolism), or hemorrhagic events (symptomatic intracranial bleeding and severe extracranial bleeding). Results: The cohort for this analysis comprised 3477 patients with ischemic stroke and AF, of which, 643 (18.3%) had also rEF. After a mean follow-up of 7.5 ± 9.1 months, 375 (10.8%) patients had 382 recorded outcome events, for an annual rate of 18.0%. While the number of primary outcome events in patients with rEF was 86 (13.4%), compared to 289 (10.2%) for the patients without rEF; on multivariable analysis rEF was not associated with the primary outcome (OR 1.25; 95% CI 0.84–1.88). At the end of follow-up, 321 (49.9%) patients with rEF were deceased or disabled (mRS ⩾3), compared with 1145 (40.4%) of those without rEF; on multivariable analysis, rEF was correlated with mortality or disability (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.03–1.77). Conclusions: In patients with ischemic stroke and AF, the presence of rEF was not associated with the composite outcome of ischemic or hemorrhagic events over short-term follow-up but was associated with increased mortality or disability

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients