The unexpected consequences of forced migration

Matti Sarvimäki looks at the long-term economic outcomes for Finns displaced by the 1939 Soviet invasion.

Assimilating Immigrants: The Impact of an Integration Program

Immigration policy design is an important and controversial topic in most developed countries. We inform this debate by evaluating the effects of an integration program for immigrants to Finland. The program consists of an individualized sequence of training and subsidized employment. Non-compliance is sanctioned by reductions in welfare benefits. Our empirical strategy exploits a discontinuity that made participation obligatory in May 1999 only for those who had entered the population register after May 1997. The results suggest that the program strongly increased the employment and earnings of immigrants and reduced their dependency on social benefits.Immigrants, assimilation, integration programs, regression-discontinuity

Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration

We study the long-term effects of human displacement using individual-level panel data on forced migrants and comparable non-migrants. After World War II, Finland ceded a tenth of its territory to the Soviet Union and resettled the entire population living in these areas in the remaining parts of the country. We find that displacement increased the long-term income of men, but had no effect on that of women. We attribute a large part of the effect to faster transition from traditional (rural) to modern (urban) occupations among the displaced.regional labor markets, displaced persons, migration

Agglomeration in the Periphery

i. This discussion paper is a completely revised version of SERCDP0047, published April 2010. This paper argues that agglomeration externalities are important even in the rural periphery. The analysis focuses on the forced relocation of more than a tenth of the Finnish population after World War II. Using the details of the resettlement policy to construct instrumental variables for wartime population growth rate, I find that an exogenous increase in municipality's population had a positive effect on later population growth, industrialization and real wages. These findings are consistent with the presence of agglomeration externalities and inconsistent with other popular explanations for the spatial distribution of economic activity

Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science

We review and interpret research on the economic and political effects of receiving asylum seekers and refugees in developed countries, with a particular focus on the 2015 European refugee protection crisis and its aftermath. In the first part of the paper, we examine the consequences of receiving asylum seekers and refugees and identify two main findings. First, the reception of refugees is unlikely to generate large direct economic effects. Both labor market and fiscal consequences for host countries are likely to be relatively modest. Second, however, the broader political processes accompanying the reception and integration of refugees may give rise to indirect yet larger economic effects. Specifically, a growing body of work suggests that the arrival of asylum seekers and refugees can fuel the rise of anti-immigrant populist parties, which may lead to the adoption of economically and politically isolationist policies. Yet, these political effects are not inevitable and occur only under certain conditions. In the second part of the paper, we discuss the conditions under which these effects are less likely to occur. We argue that refugees’ effective integration along relevant linguistic, economic, and legal dimensions, an allocation of asylum seekers that is perceived as ‘fair’ by the host society, and meaningful contact between locals and newly arrived refugees have the potential to mitigate the political and indirect economic risks

Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science

We review and interpret research on the economic and political effects of receiving asylum seekers and refugees in developed countries, with a particular focus on the 2015 European refugee protection crisis and its aftermath. In the first part of the paper, we examine the consequences of receiving asylum seekers and refugees and identify two main findings. First, the reception of refugees is unlikely to generate large direct economic effects. Both labor market and fiscal consequences for host countries are likely to be relatively modest. Second, however, the broader political processes accompanying the reception and integration of refugees may give rise to indirect yet larger economic effects. Specifically, a growing body of work suggests that the arrival of asylum seekers and refugees can fuel the rise of anti-immigrant populist parties, which may lead to the adoption of economically and politically isolationist policies. Yet, these political effects are not inevitable and occur only under certain conditions. In the second part of the paper, we discuss the conditions under which these effects are less likely to occur. We argue that refugees’ effective integration along relevant linguistic, economic, and legal dimensions, an allocation of asylum seekers that is perceived as ‘fair’ by the host society, and meaningful contact between locals and newly arrived refugees have the potential to mitigate the political and indirect economic risks

The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: evidence from UK’s single regeneration budget

Many governments aim to improve the labour market outcomes of people living in deprived areas through "place-making" initiatives. Economists are often sceptical about the effectiveness of such policies, but empirical evidence on their impacts remains limited. We examine the impact of building subsidised business floor space in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. Our estimates suggest that while the £8.2bn investment into these projects increased the number of jobs located in the targeted neighbourhoods, it did little to improve the employment of local residents

The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: evidence from UK’s Single Regeneration Budget

We study the local economic impacts of a major regeneration programme aimed at enhancing the quality of life of local people in deprived neighbourhoods in the UK. The analysis is based on a panel of firm and area level data available at small spatial scales. Our identification strategies involve: a) exploiting the fine spatial scale of our data to study how effects vary with distance to the intervention area; and b) comparing places close to treatment in early rounds of the programme with places close to treatment in future rounds. We consider the long run impact of schemes funded between 1995 and 1997 on outcomes up to 2009. Our estimates suggest that the programme increased workplace employment in the intervention area but this had no impact on the employment rates of local residents

Post-secondary education and information on labor market prospects : A randomized field experiment

We examine the impact of an information intervention offered to 97 randomly chosen high schools on post-secondary education applications and enrollment in Finland. Graduating students in treatment schools were surveyed and given information on the labor market prospects associated with detailed post-secondary programs. We find that students who were the most likely to update their beliefs due to the intervention started to apply to programs associated with higher earnings. However, this subgroup is too small to give rise to a statistically or economically significant impact on the overall application or enrollment patterns.Peer reviewe