Thermally induced convective circulation and precipitation over an isolated volcano

Intense rainfall over active volcanoes is known to trigger dangerous volcanic hazards, from remobilizing loose volcanic surface material into lahars or mudflows to initiating explosive activity including pyroclastic flows at certain dome-forming volcanoes. However, the effect of the heated volcanic surface on the atmospheric circulation, including any feedback with precipitation, is unknown. This is investigated here, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The recent activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, is a well-documented case of such rainfall–volcano interaction and is used as a template for these experiments. The volcano is represented in the model by an idealized Gaussian mountain, with an imposed realistic surface temperature anomaly on the volcano summit. A robust increase in precipitation over the volcano is simulated for surface temperature anomalies above approximately 40°C, an area-average value that is exceeded at the SHV. For wind speeds less than 4 m s−1 and a range of realistic atmospheric conditions, the precipitation increase is well above the threshold required to trigger volcanic hazards (5–10 mm h−1). Hence, the thermal atmospheric forcing due to an active, but nonerupting, volcano appears to be an important factor in rainfall–volcano interactions and should be taken account of in future hazard studies

The Survivors: A Young Adult Novel

This project is an exploration of the writing and editing process for a young adult novel. It contains the original rough draft and the final draft (the fourth of four) of the first section of a young adult novel entitled The Survivors. It also includes the author\u27s research into what makes Young Adult literature Young Adult, and his reflections on the writing and editing process in terms both general and specific to The Survivors. Since the main thrust of the capstone project is the manuscript itself, the manuscript drafts form the bulk of this document

The Survivors: A Young Adult Novel

This project is an exploration of the writing and editing process for a young adult novel. It contains the original rough draft and the final draft (the fourth of four) of the first section of a young adult novel entitled The Survivors. It also includes the author\u27s research into what makes Young Adult literature Young Adult, and his reflections on the writing and editing process in terms both general and specific to The Survivors. Since the main thrust of the capstone project is the manuscript itself, the manuscript drafts form the bulk of this document

The microstratigraphy of middens: capturing daily routine in rubbish at Neolithic Çatalhöyük, Turkey

Microstratigraphy — the sequencing of detailed biological signals on site — is an important new approach being developed in the Çatalhöyük project. Here the authors show how microscopic recording of the strata and content of widespread middens on the tell are revealing daily activities and the selective employment of plants in houses and as fuel. Here we continue to witness a major advance in the practice of archaeological investigation.</jats:p

A compact to revitalise large-scale irrigation systems using a leadership-partnership-ownership ‘theory of change’

In countries with transitional economies such as those found in South Asia, large-scale irrigation systems (LSIS) with a history of public ownership account for about 115 million ha (Mha) or approximately 45% of their total area under irrigation. In terms of the global area of irrigation (320 Mha) for all countries, LSIS are estimated at 130 Mha or 40% of irrigated land. These systems can potentially deliver significant local, regional and global benefits in terms of food, water and energy security, employment, economic growth and ecosystem services. For example, primary crop production is conservatively valued at about US$355 billion. However, efforts to enhance these benefits and reform the sector have been costly and outcomes have been underwhelming and short-lived. We propose the application of a 'theory of change' (ToC) as a foundation for promoting transformational change in large-scale irrigation centred upon a 'global irrigation compact' that promotes new forms of leadership, partnership and ownership (LPO). The compact argues that LSIS can change by switching away from the current channelling of aid finances controlled by government irrigation agencies. Instead it is for irrigators, closely partnered by private, public and NGO advisory and regulatory services, to develop strong leadership models and to find new compensatory partnerships with cities and other river basin neighbours. The paper summarises key assumptions for change in the LSIS sector including the need to initially test this change via a handful of volunteer systems. Our other key purpose is to demonstrate a ToC template by which large-scale irrigation policy can be better elaborated and discussed

Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitors and Risk of Malignant Melanoma: Matched Cohort Study Using Primary Care Data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory evidence suggests that reduced phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) expression increases the invasiveness of melanoma cells; hence, pharmacological inhibition of PDE5 could affect melanoma risk. Two major epidemiological studies have investigated this and come to differing conclusions. We therefore aimed to investigate whether PDE5 inhibitor use is associated with an increased risk of malignant melanoma, and whether any increase in risk is likely to represent a causal relationship. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a matched cohort study using primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All men initiating a PDE5 inhibitor and with no prior cancer diagnosis were identified and matched on age, diabetes status, and general practice to up to four unexposed controls. Ever use of a PDE5 inhibitor and time-updated cumulative number of PDE5 inhibitor prescriptions were investigated as exposures, and the primary outcome was malignant melanoma. Basal cell carcinoma, solar keratosis, and colorectal cancer were investigated as negative control outcomes to exclude bias. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox models stratified by matched set and adjusted for potential confounders. 145,104 men with ≥1 PDE5 inhibitor prescription, and 560,933 unexposed matched controls were included. In total, 1,315 incident malignant melanoma diagnoses were observed during 3.44 million person-years of follow-up (mean 4.9 y per person). After adjusting for potential confounders, there was weak evidence of a small positive association between PDE5 inhibitor use and melanoma risk (HR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.29, p = 0.04). A similar increase in risk was seen for the two negative control outcomes related to sun exposure (HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.19, p < 0.001, for basal cell carcinoma; HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.17-1.25, p < 0.001, for solar keratosis), but there was no increased risk for colorectal cancer (HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.98, p = 0.01). There was no evidence that risk increased with number of prescriptions received (p-trend = 0.83). In a post hoc analysis, there was strong evidence that solar keratosis was associated with future PDE5 inhibitor use (odds ratio = 1.28, 95% CI 1.23-1.34, p < 0.001), suggesting that men with higher sun exposure were more likely to become PDE5 inhibitor users. However, a limitation of our study was that we did not have individual-level data on sun exposure, so we could not directly control for this in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were not consistent with PDE5 inhibitors being causally associated with melanoma risk, and strongly suggest that observed risk increases are driven by greater sun exposure among patients exposed to a PDE5 inhibitor