A Heat-Jarrow-Morton framework for energy markets: a pragmatic approach

In this article we discuss the application of the Heat-Jarrow-Morton framework Heath et al. [26] to energy markets. The goal of the article is to give a detailed overview of the topic, focusing on practical aspects rather than on theory, which has been widely studied in literature. This work aims to be a guide for practitioners and for all those who deal with the practical issues of this approach to energy market. In particular, we focus on the markets' structure, model calibration by dimension reduction with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Monte Carlo simulations and derivatives pricing. As application, we focus on European power and gas markets: we calibrate the model on historical futures quotations, we perform futures and spot simulations and we analyze the results.Comment: 41 pages, 24 figures, 2 table

Secure rendezvous and static containment in multi-agent systems with adversarial intruders

In this paper we propose a novel distributed local interaction protocol for networks of multi-agent systems (MASs) in a multi-dimensional space under directed time-varying graph with the objective to achieve secure rendezvous or static containment within the convex hull of a set of leader agents. We consider the scenario where a set of anonymous adversarial agents may intrude the network (or may be hijacked by a cyber-attack) and show that the proposed strategy guarantees the achievement of the global objective despite the continued influence of the adversaries which cannot be detected nor identified by the collaborative agents. We characterize the convergence properties of the proposed protocol in terms of the characteristics of the underlying network topology of the multi-agent system. Numerical simulations and examples corroborate the theoretical results

Development of a versatile tool for the simultaneous differential detection of Pseudomonas savastanoi pathovars by End Point and Real-Time PCR

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Pseudomonas savastanoi </it>pv. <it>savastanoi </it>is the causal agent of olive knot disease. The strains isolated from oleander and ash belong to the pathovars <it>nerii </it>and <it>fraxini</it>, respectively. When artificially inoculated, pv. <it>savastanoi </it>causes disease also on ash, and pv. <it>nerii </it>attacks also olive and ash. Surprisingly nothing is known yet about their distribution in nature on these hosts and if spontaneous cross-infections occur. On the other hand sanitary certification programs for olive plants, also including <it>P. savastanoi</it>, were launched in many countries. The aim of this work was to develop several PCR-based tools for the rapid, simultaneous, differential and quantitative detection of these <it>P. savastanoi </it>pathovars, in multiplex and <it>in planta</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Specific PCR primers and probes for the pathovars <it>savastanoi</it>, <it>nerii </it>and <it>fraxini </it>of <it>P. savastanoi </it>were designed to be used in End Point and Real-Time PCR, both with SYBR^®Green or TaqMan^®chemistries. The specificity of all these assays was 100%, as assessed by testing forty-four <it>P. savastanoi </it>strains, belonging to the three pathovars and having different geographical origins. For comparison strains from the pathovars <it>phaseolicola </it>and <it>glycinea </it>of <it>P. savastanoi </it>and bacterial epiphytes from <it>P. savastanoi </it>host plants were also assayed, and all of them tested always negative. The analytical detection limits were about 5 - 0.5 pg of pure genomic DNA and about 10²genome equivalents per reaction. Similar analytical thresholds were achieved in Multiplex Real-Time PCR experiments, even on artificially inoculated olive plants.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Here for the first time a complex of PCR-based assays were developed for the simultaneous discrimination and detection of <it>P. savastanoi </it>pv. <it>savastanoi</it>, pv. <it>nerii </it>and pv. <it>fraxini</it>. These tests were shown to be highly reliable, pathovar-specific, sensitive, rapid and able to quantify these pathogens, both in multiplex reactions and <it>in vivo</it>. Compared with the other methods already available for <it>P. savastanoi</it>, the identification procedures here reported provide a versatile tool both for epidemiological and ecological studies on these pathovars, and for diagnostic procedures monitoring the asymptomatic presence of <it>P. savastanoi </it>on olive and oleander propagation materials.</p

Cancer mortality trend in central Italy. focus on a “low rate of land use” area from 1982 to 2011

The aim of the present study was to estimate total cancer mortality trends from 1982 to 2011 in a “low rate of land use” province of the Latium region (Rieti, central Italy) characterized by a low degree of urbanization, a high prevalence of elderly, and a low number of births. Mortality data of the studied period, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were used for calculating standardized cancer mortality rates. Trends in mortality were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results showed that total standardized cancer mortality rates decreased in the monitored area over the study period. A comparison with other provinces of the same region evidenced that the studied province presented the lowest cancer mortality. The three systems/apparatuses affected by cancer that mainly influenced cancer mortality in the monitored province were the trachea-bronchus-lung, colorectal-anus, and stomach. These findings could be attributed to the implement of preventive initiatives performed in the early 2000s, to healthier environmental scenario, and to lower levels of carcinogenic pollutants in air, water, and soil matrices. Thus, our results indicate that the studied area could be considered a “healthy” benchmark for studies in oncological diseases

Virological and immunological features of SARS-CoV-2-infected children who develop neutralizing antibodies

As the global COVID-19 pandemic progresses, it is paramount to gain knowledge on adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in children to define immune correlates of protection upon immunization or infection. We analyzed anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and their neutralizing activity (PRNT) in 66 COVID-19-infected children at 7 (\ub12) days after symptom onset. Individuals with specific humoral responses presented faster virus clearance and lower viral load associated with a reduced in&nbsp;vitro infectivity. We demonstrated that the frequencies of SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+CD40L+ T&nbsp;cells and Spike-specific B cells were associated with the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and the magnitude of neutralizing activity. The plasma proteome confirmed the association between cellular and humoral SARS-CoV-2 immunity, and PRNT+ patients show higher viral signal transduction molecules (SLAMF1, CD244, CLEC4G). This work sheds lights on cellular and humoral anti-SARS-CoV-2 responses in children, which may drive future vaccination trial endpoints and quarantine measures policies

Baseline Ultrasound Assessment Improves the Response to Apremilast in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis: Results from a Multicentre Study

ound: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) phenotypes show different responses to the many available drugs. For a tailored medicine, it is important to choose the most effective treatment according to patients’ characteristics. Apremilast is recommended in PsA with moderate activity. In clinical practice, the most suitable PsA patients for apremilast are those affected by the peripheral oligoarticular arthritis. However, it is not so straightforward to definitely identify this phenotype. Musculoskeletal ultrasound (MUS) is a good tool for detecting the joints actually involved by PsA. The aim of this study is to verify if MUS assessment is useful in selecting the best PsA responders to apremilast. Methods: The following data of all consecutive PsA patients from 15 centres were recorded: anamnestic data, disease activity, PsA phenotype, apremilast treatment duration and reason of suspension. MUS assessment before apremilast treatment was the criteria which clustered patients in two groups. Apremilast retention rate estimate the drug’s effectiveness. The Cox analysis revealed the risk factors associated with treatment persistence. Mann-Whitney U and Chi-squared tests assessed the intergroup differences. Results: Only 40% of 356 patients (M:F: 152/204; median age 60 yrs) received MUS examination. In MUS group the moderate disease (median DAPSA 22.9 vs 26.9; p=0.0006) and the oligo-articular phenotype (63.6% vs 36.1%, p&lt;0.0001) were more common. The retention rate was higher in MUS group (HR 0.55 IC95% 0.32-0.94; p=0.03). Conclusion: In apremilast treated PsA patients, baseline MUS assessment is related to an increased retention rate. MUS may identify patients’ characteristics favourable to apremilast response

Predictors of DAPSA Response in Psoriatic Arthritis Patients Treated with Apremilast in a Retrospective Observational Multi-Centric Study (2023-02-07)

Background: To date, only a few real-world-setting studies evaluated apremilast effectiveness in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The aims of this retrospective observational study are to report long-term Disease Activity Index for Psoriatic Arthritis (DAPSA) response of apremilast in PsA patients and to analyze the predictors of clinical response. Methods: All PsA consecutive patients treated with apremilast in fifteen Italian rheumatological referral centers were enrolled. Anamnestic data, treatment history, and PsA disease activity (DAPSA) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months were recorded. The Mann–Whitney test and chi-squared tests assessed the differences between independent groups, whereas the Wilcoxon matched pairs signed-rank test assessed the differences between dependent samples. Logistic regressions verified if there were factors associated with achievement of DAPSA low disease activity or remission at 6 and 12 months. Results: DAPSA low disease activity or remission rates at 6 and 12 months were observed, respectively, in 42.7% (n = 125) and 54.9% (n = 161) patients. Baseline DAPSA was inversely associated with the odds of achieving low disease activity or remission at 6 months (odds ratio (OR) 0.841, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.804–0.879; p &lt; 0.01) and at 12 months (OR 0.911, 95% CI 0.883–0.939; p &lt; 0.01). Conclusions: Almost half of the PsA patients receiving apremilast achieved DAPSA low disease activity or remission at 6 and 12 months. The only factor associated with achievement of low disease activity or remission at both 6 and 12 months was baseline DAPSA

Influence of safety warnings on the prescribing attitude of JAK 2inhibitors for rheumatoid arthritis in Italy

The Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) tofacitinib (TOFA), baricitinib (BARI), upadacitinib (UPA) and 74 filgotinib (FILGO) are effective drugs for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. However, the US 75 Food &amp; Administration (FDA) raised concerns on the safety of TOFA after its approval. This 76 prompted the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to issue two safety warnings for limiting TOFA 77 use then extended in a third warning to all Jaki in patients at high risk of developing serious adverse 78 events (SAE). These included thrombosis, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and cancer. Thepurpose of this work was to analyze how the first two safety warnings from EMA affected the pre- 80 scribing of Jaki by rheumatologists in Italy. All patients with rheumatoid arthritis who had been 81 prescribed JAKi for the first time in a 36-month period from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022 were con- 82 sidered. Data were obtained from the medical records of 29 Italian tertiary referral rheumatology 83 centers. Patients were divided into three groups of 4 months each, depending on whether the JAKi 84 prescription had occurred before the EMA's first safety alert (July 1-October 31, 2019, Group 1), 85 between the first and second alerts (November 1, 2019-February 29, 2020, Group 2), or between the 86 second and third alerts (March 1, 2021-June 30, 2021, Group 3). Percentage and absolute changes in 87 patients prescribed the individual JAKi were analyzed. Differences among the three Groups of pa- 88 tients in demographic and clinical characteristics were also assessed. A total of 864 patients were 89 prescribed a JAKi during the entire period considered. Of these, 343 were identified in Group 1, 233 90 in Group 2 and 288 in Group 3. An absolute reduction of 32% was observed in the number of patients 91 prescribed a JAKi between Group 1 and Group 2 and 16% between Group 1 and Group 3. In contrast, 92 there was a 19% increase in the prescription of a JAKi in patients between Group 2 and Group 3. In 93 the first Group, BARI was the most prescribed drug (227 prescriptions, 66.2% of the total), followed 94 by TOFA (115, 33.5%) and UPA (1, 0.3%). In the second Group, the most prescribed JAKi was BARI 95 (147, 63.1%), followed by TOFA (65, 27.9%) and UPA (33, 11.5%). In the third Group, BARI was still 96 the most prescribed JAKi (104 prescriptions, 36.1%), followed by UPA (89, 30.9%), FILGO (89, 21.5%) 97 and TOFA (33, 11.5%). The number of patients prescribed TOFA decreased significantly between 98 Group 1 and Group 2 and between Group 2 and Group 3 (p ˂ 0.01). Patients who were prescribed 99 BARI decreased significantly between Group 1 and Group 2 and between Group 2 and Group 3 (p 100 ˂ 0.01). In contrast, patients prescribed UPA increased between Group 2 and Group 3 (p ˂ 0.01). 101 These data suggest that the warnings issued for TOFA were followed by a reduction in total JAKi 102 prescriptions. However, the more selective JAKi (UPA and FILGO) were perceived by prescribers 103 as favorable in terms of risk/benefit ratio and their use gradually increased at the expense of the 104 other molecules

Serum Albumin Is Inversely Associated With Portal Vein Thrombosis in Cirrhosis

We analyzed whether serum albumin is independently associated with portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in liver cirrhosis (LC) and if a biologic plausibility exists. This study was divided into three parts. In part 1 (retrospective analysis), 753 consecutive patients with LC with ultrasound-detected PVT were retrospectively analyzed. In part 2, 112 patients with LC and 56 matched controls were entered in the cross-sectional study. In part 3, 5 patients with cirrhosis were entered in the in vivo study and 4 healthy subjects (HSs) were entered in the in vitro study to explore if albumin may affect platelet activation by modulating oxidative stress. In the 753 patients with LC, the prevalence of PVT was 16.7%; logistic analysis showed that only age (odds ratio [OR], 1.024; P = 0.012) and serum albumin (OR, -0.422; P = 0.0001) significantly predicted patients with PVT. Analyzing the 112 patients with LC and controls, soluble clusters of differentiation (CD)40-ligand (P = 0.0238), soluble Nox2-derived peptide (sNox2-dp; P &lt; 0.0001), and urinary excretion of isoprostanes (P = 0.0078) were higher in patients with LC. In LC, albumin was correlated with sCD4OL (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient [r(s)], -0.33; P &lt; 0.001), sNox2-dp (r(s), -0.57; P &lt; 0.0001), and urinary excretion of isoprostanes (r(s), -0.48; P &lt; 0.0001) levels. The in vivo study showed a progressive decrease in platelet aggregation, sNox2-dp, and urinary 8-iso prostaglandin F2 alpha-III formation 2 hours and 3 days after albumin infusion. Finally, platelet aggregation, sNox2-dp, and isoprostane formation significantly decreased in platelets from HSs incubated with scalar concentrations of albumin. Conclusion: Low serum albumin in LC is associated with PVT, suggesting that albumin could be a modulator of the hemostatic system through interference with mechanisms regulating platelet activation