The Shift of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Scale: A Simple Physical Picture

A shift of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale to smaller values than predicted by linear theory was observed in simulations. In this paper, we try to provide an intuitive physical understanding of why this shift occurs, explaining in more pedagogical detail earlier perturbation theory calculations. We find that the shift is mainly due to the following physical effect. A measurement of the BAO scale is more sensitive to regions with long wavelength overdensities than underdensities, because (due to non-linear growth and bias) these overdense regions contain larger fluctuations and more tracers and hence contribute more to the total correlation function. In overdense regions the BAO scale shrinks because such regions locally behave as positively curved closed universes, and hence a smaller scale than predicted by linear theory is measured in the total correlation function. Other effects which also contribute to the shift are briefly discussed. We provide approximate analytic expressions for the non-linear shift including a brief discussion of biased tracers and explain why reconstruction should entirely reverse the shift. Our expressions and findings are in agreement with simulation results, and confirm that non-linear shifts should not be problematic for next-generation BAO measurements.Comment: 10 pages, replaced with version accepted by Phys. Rev.

Bootstrap-Based Inference for Cube Root Asymptotics

This paper proposes a valid bootstrap-based distributional approximation for M-estimators exhibiting a Chernoff (1964)-type limiting distribution. For estimators of this kind, the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent. The method proposed herein is based on the nonparametric bootstrap, but restores consistency by altering the shape of the criterion function defining the estimator whose distribution we seek to approximate. This modification leads to a generic and easy-to-implement resampling method for inference that is conceptually distinct from other available distributional approximations. We illustrate the applicability of our results with four examples in econometrics and machine learning

Inference in Linear Regression Models with Many Covariates and Heteroskedasticity

The linear regression model is widely used in empirical work in Economics, Statistics, and many other disciplines. Researchers often include many covariates in their linear model specification in an attempt to control for confounders. We give inference methods that allow for many covariates and heteroskedasticity. Our results are obtained using high-dimensional approximations, where the number of included covariates are allowed to grow as fast as the sample size. We find that all of the usual versions of Eicker-White heteroskedasticity consistent standard error estimators for linear models are inconsistent under this asymptotics. We then propose a new heteroskedasticity consistent standard error formula that is fully automatic and robust to both (conditional)\ heteroskedasticity of unknown form and the inclusion of possibly many covariates. We apply our findings to three settings: parametric linear models with many covariates, linear panel models with many fixed effects, and semiparametric semi-linear models with many technical regressors. Simulation evidence consistent with our theoretical results is also provided. The proposed methods are also illustrated with an empirical application

Dynamic allometry in coastal overwash morphology

Allometry refers to a physical principle in which geometric (and/or metabolic) characteristics of an object or organism are correlated to its size. Allometric scaling relationships typically manifest as power laws. In geomorphic contexts, scaling relationships are a quantitative signature of organization, structure, or regularity in a landscape, even if the mechanistic processes responsible for creating such a pattern are unclear. Despite the ubiquity and variety of scaling relationships in physical landscapes, the emergence and development of these relationships tend to be difficult to observe - either because the spatial and/or temporal scales over which they evolve are so great or because the conditions that drive them are so dangerous (e.g. an extreme hazard event). Here, we use a physical experiment to examine dynamic allometry in overwash morphology along a model coastal barrier. We document the emergence of a canonical scaling law for length versus area in overwash deposits (washover). Comparing the experimental features, formed during a single forcing event, to 5 decades of change in real washover morphology from the Ria Formosa barrier system, in southern Portugal, we find differences between patterns of morphometric change at the event scale versus longer timescales. Our results may help inform and test process-based coastal morphodynamic models, which typically use statistical distributions and scaling laws to underpin empirical or semi-empirical parameters at fundamental levels of model architecture. More broadly, this work dovetails with theory for landscape evolution more commonly associated with fluvial and alluvial terrain, offering new evidence from a coastal setting that a landscape may reflect characteristics associated with an equilibrium or steady-state condition even when features within that landscape do not.Funding Agency NERC Natural Environment Research Council NE/N015665/2 Leverhulme Trust RPG-2018-282info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Optimal Bandwidth Choice for Robust Bias Corrected Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Modern empirical work in Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often employs local polynomial estimation and inference with a mean square error (MSE) optimal bandwidth choice. This bandwidth yields an MSE-optimal RD treatment effect estimator, but is by construction invalid for inference. Robust bias corrected (RBC) inference methods are valid when using the MSE-optimal bandwidth, but we show they yield suboptimal confidence intervals in terms of coverage error. We establish valid coverage error expansions for RBC confidence interval estimators and use these results to propose new inference-optimal bandwidth choices for forming these intervals. We find that the standard MSE-optimal bandwidth for the RD point estimator is too large when the goal is to construct RBC confidence intervals with the smallest coverage error. We further optimize the constant terms behind the coverage error to derive new optimal choices for the auxiliary bandwidth required for RBC inference. Our expansions also establish that RBC inference yields higher-order refinements (relative to traditional undersmoothing) in the context of RD designs. Our main results cover sharp and sharp kink RD designs under conditional heteroskedasticity, and we discuss extensions to fuzzy and other RD designs, clustered sampling, and pre-intervention covariates adjustments. The theoretical findings are illustrated with a Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical application, and the main methodological results are available in \texttt{R} and \texttt{Stata} packages

On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference

Nonparametric methods play a central role in modern empirical work. While they provide inference procedures that are more robust to parametric misspecification bias, they may be quite sensitive to tuning parameter choices. We study the effects of bias correction on confidence interval coverage in the context of kernel density and local polynomial regression estimation, and prove that bias correction can be preferred to undersmoothing for minimizing coverage error and increasing robustness to tuning parameter choice. This is achieved using a novel, yet simple, Studentization, which leads to a new way of constructing kernel-based bias-corrected confidence intervals. In addition, for practical cases, we derive coverage error optimal bandwidths and discuss easy-to-implement bandwidth selectors. For interior points, we show that the MSE-optimal bandwidth for the original point estimator (before bias correction) delivers the fastest coverage error decay rate after bias correction when second-order (equivalent) kernels are employed, but is otherwise suboptimal because it is too "large". Finally, for odd-degree local polynomial regression, we show that, as with point estimation, coverage error adapts to boundary points automatically when appropriate Studentization is used; however, the MSE-optimal bandwidth for the original point estimator is suboptimal. All the results are established using valid Edgeworth expansions and illustrated with simulated data. Our findings have important consequences for empirical work as they indicate that bias-corrected confidence intervals, coupled with appropriate standard errors, have smaller coverage error and are less sensitive to tuning parameter choices in practically relevant cases where additional smoothness is available

A Random Attention Model

This paper illustrates how one can deduce preference from observed choices when attention is not only limited but also random. In contrast to earlier approaches, we introduce a Random Attention Model (RAM) where we abstain from any particular attention formation, and instead consider a large class of nonparametric random attention rules. Our model imposes one intuitive condition, termed Monotonic Attention, which captures the idea that each consideration set competes for the decision-maker's attention. We then develop revealed preference theory within RAM and obtain precise testable implications for observable choice probabilities. Based on these theoretical findings, we propose econometric methods for identification, estimation, and inference of the decision maker's preferences. To illustrate the applicability of our results and their concrete empirical content in specific settings, we also develop revealed preference theory and accompanying econometric methods under additional nonparametric assumptions on the consideration set for binary choice problems. Finally, we provide general purpose software implementation of our estimation and inference results, and showcase their performance using simulations