Uranium resources, scenarios, nuclear and energy dynamics

ISBN 978-1-49-51-6286-2International audienceA dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Uranium consuming Thermal Neutron Reactors and future generation, free from the uranium market once started, breeder reactors are only one part of the market and are in a global competition, not limited to the other nuclear generation. In this paper we present a new model of the impact of uranium scarcity on the development of nuclear reactors. Many scenarios rely on the subjective definition of ultimate uranium resources. We suggest that when uranium will mainly be extracted together with other resources, its cost should not be simply a function of cumulated uranium mined but also of mine yearly outputs. We describe the sensitivities of our model to breeder reactor physical performance indicators. Used fuels can be seen as a liability or as a source of usable material and a scarce resource limiting fast reactor startups in fast development in India or China. We present the impact of synergetic strategies where countries with opposite strategies share used fuels

COSI6: A Tool for Nuclear Transition Scenario Studies and Application to SFR Deployment Scenarios with Minor Actinide Transmutation

International audienc

Prospective inventory of radioactive materials and waste produced by the French nuclear fleet according to various options

International audienceIn accordance with the French Act of 28 June 2006 on the sustainable management of radioactive materials andwaste, this paper summarises the technical characterisation of prospective scenarios using different fuel cycleoptions: open cycle, recycling of plutonium and uranium in PWRs (current option for the French nuclear powerfleet), multiple recycling of plutonium in SFRs, and multiple recycling of plutonium in PWRs. This informationhas been submitted by the CEA to the Ministry of Energy within the scope of Article 51 of the Ministerial Orderdated 23 February on the French National Radioactive Materials and Waste Management Plan (PNGMDR).Rather than imagining the large-scale replacement of PWRs by fast reactors within a short period of time (theassumption of some past studies), it was decided to study a scenario involving a more progressive deployment onthe basis of existing materials and facilities. This solution appears to be better suited to the dynamics oftechnical progress in the field, while providing greater flexibility to adapt to societal changes. The path for thisscenario is marked by successive milestones (stages), with each corresponding to an increased deployment offast reactors with their own increasingly ambitious objectives.Phase A corresponds to the current state of the French nuclear reactor fleet wherein plutonium and uranium arerecycled in mixed-oxide (MOX) and enriched reprocessed uranium (ERU) fuels in pressurised water reactors(PWR). Phase B consists in recycling spent MOX fuel from PWRs in a limited number of SFRs. The objective ofthis phase is to stabilise the quantities of spent MOX fuels from light water reactors. Phase C is designed to beable to stabilise the plutonium inventory by deploying a symbiotic fleet comprising UOX-PWRs, MOX-PWRs andSFRs. The objective of phase D is to deploy a fleet of reactors that no longer burns natural uranium. There aretwo possible options for a nuclear fleet that can generally be considered as self-sufficient, i.e. D1, ahomogeneous fleet with 100% SFRs, and D2, a mixed fleet comprising breeder SFRs producing plutonium andPWRs fuelled with 100% MOX to burn this plutonium.However, SFRs may not become economically competitive in the next few decades if uranium resources remainreadily available, and MOX spent fuels may start to pile up at the back-end of the fuel cycle unless alternativeplutonium management solutions in PWRs are found. In this study, advanced fuel batches, called CORAIL andMIX, are applied to enable multiple recycling in standard PWRs.The CORAIL concept involves placing both MOX fuel rods with depleted uranium support structures and UOXfuel rods in the same fuel assembly. A configuration based on 84 MOX fuel rods and 181 UOX fuel rods wasstudied in the early 2000s, which is why it has been chosen for the first scenario in this paper. As the enrichmentof UOX rods is maximised at 5%, the plutonium content is adapted to make up for its loss of fissile quality witheach recycling phase.The MIX concept is based on a fuel assembly containing only MOX fuel rods with enriched uranium supportstructures. The purpose in this case is to limit the plutonium content in the fuel to a level similar to that ofcurrent MOX fuels and to meet any additional needs in fissile nuclei by providing enriched uranium in thesupport. The greater the isotopic degradation of plutonium, the greater the enrichment will be, which will beincreased with each recycling phase to make sure $^{235}$U is stabilised at around 3% to 4%. Three plutoniumcontents have been considered in our study: 8%, 9.54% and 12%.This paper assesses the material flows and inventories for these various options on the basis of two approaches:1) static (or in equilibrium) by supposing that each option is artificially maintained long enough, and 2) dynamic(for transition scenarios).The total disposal surface area required for each of the different options is also discussed on the basis of theAndra disposal concept. The assessment of the resulting waste volumes depending on the option is given inanother paper, also presented at this conference