Bayesian variable selection in generalized extreme value regression: modeling annual maximum temperature

In many applications, interest focuses on assessing relationships between covariates and the extremes of the distribution of a continuous response. For example, in climate studies, a usual approach to assess climate change has been based on the analysis of annual maximum data. Using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, we can model trends in the annual maximum temperature using the high number of available atmospheric covariates. However, there is typically uncertainty in which of the many candidate covariates should be included. Bayesian methods for variable selection are very useful to identify important covariates. However, such methods are currently very limited for moderately high dimensional variable selection in GEV regression. We propose a Bayesian method for variable selection based on a stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) algorithm proposed for posterior computation. The method is applied to the selection of atmospheric covariates in annual maximum temperature series in three Spanish stations

New analysis method for continuous base-flow and availability of water resources based on Parallel Linear Reservoir models

Water flows in the hydrosphere through a tangled and tortuous labyrinth of ways that is the hydrological cycle. Flow separation models are an attempt to group such complexity of paths into a few components of flow and storage so as to reflect the overall behaviour of a basin. A new method of analysis and separation of flow components, based on equations of dynamic relations between Linear Reservoirs connected in Parallel (PLR models), is developed in this article. A synthesis of models based on mathematical filter equations is carried out in order to make comparisons with the proposed model. Reference is also made to the methodology of adjustment and calibration of the PLR models based on the recession curves of the real hydrographs. The models are tested with the continuous register of a basin located in the northeast of Spain. The simulations are carried out with two reservoir models (2R models), three reservoirs (3R models) and with a mathematical filter model to compare the results. With the results of the models, flow duration curves (FDCs) and storage duration curves (SDCs) were elaborated, thus allowing assessment of the origin of the water resources of the basin, a guarantee of their regulation and availability, the dynamic storage in the catchment, residence times and other features

A kinetic and mechanistic study on the thermal decomposition reactions of cis- and trans- fused 1,2,4-trioxanes

The kinetics of the thermal decomposition reactions of artemisinine (1), a cis-fused 1,2,4-trioxane, and trans-3,3dimethyl-1,2,4-trioxane (6) in solutions of benzene, toluene, and methanol in sealed tubes were compared at temperatures between 100.1° and 171.4 °C. Pseudo first-order rate constant values were determined for conversions of both cyclic peroxides up to ca. 60%. The activation parameters and the composition of the reaction products were indicative of homolytic cleavage of their O-O bonds as the rate-determining steps followed by stepwise fragmentation. The free energies of activation (ΔG#) for 1 and 6 reactions in the aromatic solvents were calculated at the middle of each temperature range, giving values of 30.7 and 35.1 kcal/mol, respectively, which are evaluated considering their different molecular configurations. Furthermore, the rates of the thermal decomposition reactions of those trioxanes were sensitive to solvent effects.Laboratorio de Estudio de Compuestos OrgánicosCentro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Ciencias Aplicada

A kinetic and mechanistic study on the thermal decomposition reactions of cis- and trans- fused 1,2,4-trioxanes

The kinetics of the thermal decomposition reactions of artemisinine (1), a cis-fused 1,2,4-trioxane, and trans-3,3dimethyl-1,2,4-trioxane (6) in solutions of benzene, toluene, and methanol in sealed tubes were compared at temperatures between 100.1° and 171.4 °C. Pseudo first-order rate constant values were determined for conversions of both cyclic peroxides up to ca. 60%. The activation parameters and the composition of the reaction products were indicative of homolytic cleavage of their O-O bonds as the rate-determining steps followed by stepwise fragmentation. The free energies of activation (ΔG#) for 1 and 6 reactions in the aromatic solvents were calculated at the middle of each temperature range, giving values of 30.7 and 35.1 kcal/mol, respectively, which are evaluated considering their different molecular configurations. Furthermore, the rates of the thermal decomposition reactions of those trioxanes were sensitive to solvent effects.Laboratorio de Estudio de Compuestos OrgánicosCentro de Investigación y Desarrollo en Ciencias Aplicada

Aplicación de los criterios del reglamento de dominio público hidráulico en la creación de nuevas infraestructuras en España

Se presenta una descriptiva de los criterios que en España se vienen adoptando en la implantación de infraestructuras en el dominio público hidráulico. Estos criterios se contemplan en el Real Decreto 9/2008 y en el Proyecto de RD de 2016 que, en materia de gestión de riesgos de inundación, abordan dos aspectos principales a regular, (1) el aumento o creación de riesgo en el entorn o de la infraestructura cuyo análisis se basa en el concepto de vía de intenso desagüe y (2) el riesgo para los propios usuarios de la infraestructura que se pretende crear, cuyo análisis se basa en el concepto de zona de flujo preferente. En otras palabras, se analizan dos aspectos, los riesgos a terceros y los riesgos propios. El desarrollo de la temática del artículo se ilustra con un ejemplo, l a implantación de un puente de 109 m sobre el río Jalón, que cruza el valle aguas abajo de la localidad de Sabiñán. El apartado principal del análisis consiste en el estudio hidráulico de un tramo de río en situación de crecidas, que se lleva a cabo con el software IBER, en cuya creación han colaborado el CEDEX y las Universidades de La Coruña y Barcelona

Involuntary internment vs. Illegal retention in patients with serious mental disorder

Even though a good attitude towards therapy and adherence are key to an effective treatment, in certain circumstances the use of coercive actions in people with mental disorders is the only way to prevent serious harm to the patient and to others. The choice to use coercive measures, such as involuntary internment, is a challenge for doctors, since not only do they have to deal with the patient and their relatives who are in a highly emotional situation, but there are also complex legal regulations. To defend the rights of patients in these difficult situations, and to avoid legal consequences for clinical staff due to illegal acts, it is essential that staff are familiar with all of the relevant legal rules and procedures. Further studies are warranted to obtain clear conclusions regarding differences between involuntary internment and illegal retention

Definition of the relaxation factor for the distributed management of shallow geothermal resources

A new methodology is proposed based on the thermal impact estimation using a groundwater and heat transport model which, combined with the definition of a relaxation factor, allows the approval of new exploitations in an organized and distributed way. This new methodology will make a step further into a clear legislative framework and a scientifically motivated concession protocol for new shallow geothermal exploitations. This paper presents an example of application of this methodology and the different potential advantages of its implementation are discussed. New indicators of the groundwater quality from a thermal point of view are proposedEn este trabajo se propone una metodología basada en la evaluación de impactos térmicos mediante un modelo numérico de flujo de agua subterránea y transporte de calor, que combinado con la definición de un factor de relajación permite la concesión de nuevas explotaciones de forma ordenada y distribuida en zonas urbanas. Ello contribuye hacia una normativa clara y un protocolo científicamente motivado para la concesión de derechos de explotación y así evitar la “ley del primero en llegar, primero en servirse”. A modo de demostración, se ofrece un ejemplo de la aplicación de la metodología propuesta y se discuten las posibles ventajas de su implementación así como la propuesta de nuevos indicadores para evaluar el estado de calidad del agua subterránea desde un punto de vista energétic

Análisis de la evolución de los niveles de agua en los acuíferos de las Masas de Agua Subterránea 082 (Huerva-Perejiles) y 074 (Sierras Paleozoica de la Virgen y Vicort) y su relación con eventos naturales y antrópicos.

Este trabajo recoge el estudio de los niveles de agua y su evolución futura de los piezómetros de las Masas de Agua Subterránea 082 y 074. <br /

Método PLR para la separación del flujo de base continuo y su aplicación con la serie temporal del río Bergantes

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es presentar modelos basados en depósitos lineales en paralelo (PLR) como método idóneo para la separación del flujo de base a partir de series temporales de descarga total. Se desarrolla un nuevo método de análisis y separación de las componentes de flujo basado en ecuaciones de relaciones dinámicas entre depósitos conectados en paralelo. También se hace referencia a la metodología de ajuste y calibración de los modelos PLR a partir de curvas de recesión de hidrogramas reales. La ecuación de relaciones dinámicas establece una solución única para los parámetros que rigen los modelos PLR, y permite separar las componentes de flujo como una solución matemática óptima. Con estos modelos, para evaluar el recorrido del agua a través de la cuenca, se pueden establecer más de dos componentes de flujo. Con el registro continuo del río Bergantes se hacen simulaciones de modelos de dos depósitos (2R), y de tres depósitos (3R), y se elaboran curvas de probabilidad de excedencia (FDCs), que son idóneas para evaluar el origen del recurso hídrico de la cuenca, su garantía de regulación y su disponibilidad

The propagation of a flood induced recharge through the alluvial urban aquifer of Zaragoza (Spain)

This paper studies the recharge induced by a flood event in the alluvial urban aquifer of Zaragoza from a quantitative point of view. Thanks to the implementation of a groundwater flow numerical model, the propagation of the recharge front through the alluvial aquifer has been simulated. The results obtained have shown a propagation of the recharge front through the aquifer driven by the transmissivity field and the existent river-aquifer regime prior to the flood event. In general, the recharge front has a 35-45 m·h-1 displacement in the first 20 hours. Subsequently, the front decelerates to almost zero velocity at the flood peak. Finally, it is concluded that the recharge front reaches 1,000 m in previous river effluent zones and 2,000- 2,500 m in other zonesEn este artículo se estudia desde un punto de vista cuantitativo la recarga del acuífero aluvial urbano de Zaragoza inducida por una crecida del río Ebro.Mediante la implementación de un modelo numérico de flujo se ha simulado la propagación de la crecida por el acuífero aluvial. Los resultados obtenidos muestran una dinámica de la recarga estrechamente ligada a la anisotropía de la transmisividad y las relaciones río-acuífero previas a la crecida. En general se produce un avance del frente de la recarga rápido, velocidades de 35-45 m·h-1 en las primeras 20 horas. Posteriormente, dicho frente experimenta una importante deceleración con velocidades muy bajas entorno al inicio de la curva de decrecida del río Ebro. El alcance de la recarga es de 1.000 m en zonas fuertemente efluentes previamente a la crecida y de 2.000-2.500 m en otras zona