Multicriteria Risk Ranking of Zoonotic Diseases in a Developing Country: A Case Study of Zambia

The integration of a multicriteria decision analysis approach, including techniques such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), has yielded valuable insights in the realm of zoonotic disease risk assessment. This analytical framework draws from the OIE-supported manual, utilizing impact assessments, transmission pathways, and categorizations as provided by the OIE itself. Moreover, the consideration of specific zoonotic disease scenarios tailored to individual countries enhances the contextual relevance of the analysis. Through this approach, the ranking of zoonotic diseases is systematically established, offering a comprehensive evaluation of their potential impacts and risks. This methodology encompasses pivotal criteria, including prevalence, economic impact, health impact, transmission pathways, and healthcare capacity, collectively offering a holistic perspective that mirrors the intricate nature of zoonotic diseases. The resultant rankings, derived from both ECDC and OIE data, illuminate diseases that harbor significant threats to both human and animal populations. This ranking fosters the identification of diseases with potential for rapid spread and substantial impact, guiding resource allocation towards prevention, control, and mitigation strategies. The alignment between ECDC and OIE rankings underscores the robustness of the applied methodology, with Plague and Zoonotic TB consistently emerging as high-ranking diseases, reinforcing their acknowledged significance. A consolidated ranking, amalgamating data from both sources, provides an insightful overview of potential risks linked to various zoonotic diseases. Plague, Zoonotic TB, Brucellosis, Trypanosomiasis, and Rabies consistently occupy top positions, presenting a valuable instrument for policymakers, public health officials, and stakeholders in prioritizing resource allocation and intervention strategies. The implementation of a multicriteria decision analysis approach, integrating AHP and TOPSIS methodologies, underpins the generation of informed rankings for Zambian zoonotic diseases. The intricate interplay of criteria like prevalence, economic impact, health impact, transmission pathways, and healthcare capacity forms a comprehensive framework for evaluating the potential risks of diverse diseases. The ensuing ranking, led by Plague and succeeded by Anthrax, Rabies, and others, mirrors their collective risk scores calculated via the adopted methodology. This approach empowers strategic decision-making by pinpointing diseases with heightened potential for adverse impacts on both human and animal populations. The rankings serve as invaluable aids in directing resources, devising strategic interventions, and formulating targeted measures for prevention and control. However, acknowledgment of the dynamic disease landscape and the imperative of adaptive strategies underscores the ongoing importance of monitoring and managing zoonotic diseases effectively in Zambia. By amalgamating data from authoritative sources and embracing a systematic, evidence-based approach, this study accentuates the necessity of addressing zoonotic diseases with a holistic lens, fostering proactive perspectives that augment public health and avert future outbreaks

A Comprehensive Study on the Livestock Sub-Sector Analysis and its Role in Fostering Sustainable Development in Zambia: Insights from the 2022 Livestock Survey Report

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of Zambia\u27s dynamic livestock sub-sector as of April 30, 2022, drawing insights from the 2022 Livestock Survey Report. With 1,801,075 households actively engaged in livestock activities, the sub-sector emerges as a vital component of the country\u27s rural livelihoods. Understanding the interplay of household characteristics and livestock populations is pivotal for crafting sustainable development policies that enhance the well-being of the sub-sector\u27s participants. Gender dynamics within the livestock sub-sector underscore the central role of men as household heads and primary decision-makers. This necessitates targeted initiatives to empower women, fostering their active involvement and amplifying contributions that lead to improved household prosperity, expanded economic opportunities, and the preservation of indigenous knowledge. Zambia\u27s diverse livestock population, with a significant presence of 4,698,972 cattle, plays a crucial role in ensuring protein availability, bolstering nutritional security, and contributing to household incomes. Goats, sheep, and pigs also feature prominently, meeting various demands for meat, milk and other essentials. Recognizing the unique contributions of each livestock species allows for tailored strategies to improve their productivity and welfare. Addressing provincial disparities in livestock production and resource utilization is imperative for achieving sustainable development goals. Provincial variations in agro-ecological conditions, market access, and infrastructure necessitate context-specific interventions. Such approaches can harness provincial strengths, optimize resource utilization, and stimulate value chain development. Moreover, this study highlights opportunities in honey production and milk output. Apiculture and beekeeping investment can aid biodiversity conservation through pollination services while fostering high-quality honey production. Tailored capacity-building and infrastructure development can address provincial disparities in milk production, benefiting smallholder dairy farmers and the broader dairy industry. This study underscores the livestock sub-sector\u27s pivotal role in sustainable development, food security, and rural livelihood enhancement in Zambia. By embracing responsible, inclusive strategies and evidence-based insights, policymakers, stakeholders, and development practitioners can optimize the sub-sector\u27s potential. Focusing on household well-being, gender inclusivity, and provincial equity will foster a resilient and thriving livestock sub-sector, benefiting all segments of society and paving the way for a brighter and more sustainable future for Zambia

Epidemiological Tools in Focus: A Comprehensive Assessment of Their Role in Addressing Infectious Disease Challenges in Zambia

In the relentless pursuit of mitigating infectious diseases, this investigative study critically examines the nuanced application and effectiveness of epidemiological tools within the context of Zambia. The study meticulously navigates the landscape of infectious diseases in Zambia, considering its unique ecological and socio-economic features. Employing a rigorous methodology that integrates primary data from epidemiological reports, field observations, and laboratory analyses with insights from diverse scientific literature, the study investigates the types and applications of epidemiological tools such as spatial analysis, case-control studies, molecular epidemiology, and serological assays. Unfolding the challenges posed by resource constraints, data reliability issues, and the dynamic nature of infectious diseases in Zambia, the study offers a comprehensive assessment that extends to the implications of these tools for informed public health decision-making. This scholarly inquiry concludes by affirming the significance of ongoing refinement and adaptation of epidemiological tools, emphasizing their pivotal role in addressing infectious disease challenges within Zambia and advocating for their continued enhancement on the global public health stage

Diagnosis and genotyping of African swine fever viruses from 2015 outbreaks in Zambia

In early 2015, a highly fatal haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs resembling African swine fever (ASF) occurred in North Western, Copperbelt, and Lusaka provinces of Zambia. Molecular diagnosis by polymerase chain reaction targeting specific amplification of p72 (B646L) gene of ASF virus (ASFV) was conducted. Fourteen out of 16 domestic pigs from the affected provinces were found to be positive for ASFV. Phylogenetic analyses based on part of the p72 and the complete p54 (E183L) genes revealed that all the ASFVs detected belonged to genotypes I and Id, respectively. Additionally, epidemiological data suggest that the same ASFV spread from Lusaka to other provinces possibly through uncontrolled and/or illegal pig movements. Although the origin of the ASFV that caused outbreaks in domestic pigs in Zambia could not be ascertained, it appears likely that the virus may have emerged from within the country or region, probably from a sylvatic cycle. It is recommended that surveillance of ASF, strict biosecurity, and quarantine measures be imposed in order to prevent further spread and emergence of new ASF outbreaks in Zambia. Keywords: African swine fever; Asfarviridae; Molecular epidemiology; Zambi

The Epidemiology of African Swine Fever in "Nonendemic" Regions of Zambia (1989-2015) : Implications for Disease Prevention and Control.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and deadly viral hemorrhagic disease of swine. In Zambia, ASF was first reported in 1912 in Eastern Province and is currently believed to be endemic in that province only. Strict quarantine measures implemented at the Luangwa River Bridge, the only surface outlet from Eastern Province, appeared to be successful in restricting the disease. However, in 1989, an outbreak occurred for the first time outside the endemic province. Sporadic outbreaks have since occurred almost throughout the country. These events have brought into acute focus our limited understanding of the epidemiology of ASF in Zambia. Here, we review the epidemiology of the disease in areas considered nonendemic from 1989 to 2015. Comprehensive sequence analysis conducted on genetic data of ASF viruses (ASFVs) detected in domestic pigs revealed that p72 genotypes I, II, VIII and XIV have been involved in causing ASF outbreaks in swine during the study period. With the exception of the 1989 outbreak, we found no concrete evidence of dissemination of ASFVs from Eastern Province to other parts of the country. Our analyses revealed a complex epidemiology of the disease with a possibility of sylvatic cycle involvement. Trade and/or movement of pigs and their products, both within and across international borders, appear to have been the major factor in ASFV dissemination. Since ASFVs with the potential to cause countrywide and possibly regional outbreaks, could emerge from "nonendemic regions", the current ASF control policy in Zambia requires a dramatic shift to ensure a more sustainable pig industry

Advances in Artificial Intelligence for Infectious Disease Surveillance in Livestock in Zambia

The global livestock industry grapples with formidable challenges stemming from the escalation and dissemination of infectious diseases. Zambia, an agricultural cornerstone where livestock is pivotal for economic sustenance and food security, confronts the imperative task of effectually surveilling and managing infectious diseases. This study investigates into the possibilities of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) for infectious disease surveillance in the Zambian livestock sector. The study meticulously scrutinizes the prevailing state of infectious disease surveillance, evaluates the latent capabilities of AI technologies, and critically discusses the intricate landscape of challenges and opportunities entailed in their implementation. In the intricate tapestry of Zambia\u27s economy, livestock farming assumes a central and irreplaceable role, contributing substantially to the well-being and livelihoods of a significant portion of the populace. However, the omnipresent specter of infectious diseases perpetually menaces livestock health, casting a shadow on productivity and economic equilibrium. Conventional methodologies in disease surveillance exhibit inherent shortcomings, characterized by delays in reporting and inherent inaccuracies. This study is an exploration of possibilities of the AI applications designed to fortify infectious disease surveillance within Zambia\u27s livestock domain. The infusion of AI technologies holds the transformative potential to reshape disease monitoring paradigms, enabling early detection and facilitating swift response strategies in the face of emerging threats. The ensuing critical analysis navigates the intricate terrain of the application of AI in the Zambian livestock context, shedding light on its promising prospects, while pragmatically addressing the hurdles that may accompany its incorporation

Evidence for exposure of asymptomatic domestic pigs to African swine fever virus during an inter‐epidemic period in Zambia

African swine fever (ASF) causes persistent outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic regions in Zambia. However, the epidemiology of the disease is poorly understood, particularly during the inter-epidemic periods. We conducted surveillance for ASF in asymptomatic domestic pigs and soft ticks in selected Zambian provinces. While serum samples (n = 1,134) were collected from crossbred pigs from all study sites between 2014 and 2017, whole blood (n = 300) was collected from both crossbred and indigenous pigs in Eastern Province (EP) in 2017. Soft ticks were collected from Mosi-oa-Tunya National Park in Southern Province (SP) in 2019. Sera were screened for antibodies against ASF by ELISA while genome detection in whole blood and soft ticks was conducted by PCR. Ticks were identified morphologically and by phylogenetic analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. Seroprevalence was highest in EP (50.9%, 95% CI [47.0-54.9]) compared to significantly lower rates in SP (2.9%, 95% CI [1.6-5.1]). No antibodies to ASFV were detected in Lusaka Province. In EP, the prevalence of ASFV genome was 11.7% (35/300), significantly higher (OR = 6.2, 95% CI [2.4-16.6]) in indigenous pigs compared to crossbred pigs. The pooled prevalence of ASFV genome in ticks was 11.0%, 95% CI [8.5-13.9]. Free-range husbandry system was the only factor that was significantly associated with seropositive (p < .0001, OR = 39.3) and PCR-positive results (p < .001, OR = 5.7). Phylogenetically, based on the p72 gene, ASFV from Ornithodoros moubata ticks detected in this study belonged to genotype I, but they separated into two distinct clusters. Besides confirming ASF endemicity in EP and the presence of ASFV-infected ticks in SP, these results provide evidence for exposure of domestic pigs to ASFV in non-endemic regions during the inter-epidemic period

Co-Circulation of Multiple Serotypes of Bluetongue Virus in Zambia

Bluetongue (BT) is an arthropod-borne viral disease of ruminants with serious trade and socio-economic implications. Although the disease has been reported in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, there is currently no information on circulating serotypes and disease distribution in Zambia. Following surveillance for BT in domestic and wild ruminants in Zambia, BT virus (BTV) nucleic acid and antibodies were detected in eight of the 10 provinces of the country. About 40% (87/215) of pooled blood samples from cattle and goats were positive for BTV nucleic acid, while one hartebeest pool (1/43) was positive among wildlife samples. Sequence analysis of segment 2 revealed presence of serotypes 3, 5, 7, 12 and 15, with five nucleotypes (B, E, F, G and J) being identified. Segment 10 phylogeny showed Zambian BTV sequences clustering with Western topotype strains from South Africa, intimating likely transboundary spread of BTV in Southern Africa. Interestingly, two Zambian viruses and one isolate from Israel formed a novel clade, which we designated as Western topotype 4. The high seroprevalence (96.2%) in cattle from Lusaka and Central provinces and co-circulation of multiple serotypes showed that BT is widespread, underscoring the need for prevention and control strategies