КИТАЙСКАЯ ИНИЦИАТИВА «ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ПОЯС ВЕЛИКОГО ШЕЛКОВОГО ПУТИ» И ПРОБЛЕМА ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ НА ПРОСТРАНСТВЕ ЕВРАЗИИ

Ensuring global energy security is one of the major systemic challenges facing the global energy sector. The article shows the role of Eurasia in the modern world, analyzes the peculiarities of understanding and interpretation of energy security challenges in its major regions and groups of countries. Shows the role of Russian-Chinese strategic partnership, the problems of implementation of three major projects on the continent - the Eurasian economic Union, Shanghai cooperation organization and the Chinese land of the project "Economic belt of the Great silk road" and their possible impact on energy security as Russia and China and all of Eurasia. Justified the principle of reasonable sufficiency diversification of energy supplies and energy markets.Обеспечение глобальной энергетической безопасности является одним из основных системных вызовов, с которыми столкнулась мировая энергетика. В статье показана роль Евразии в современном мире, анализируются особенности понимания и трактовки проблемы энергетической безопасности в её основных регионах и группах стран. Показана роль российско-китайского стратегического партнёрства, рассмотрены проблемы реализации трёх крупнейших проектов на континенте - Евразийского экономического союза, Шанхайской организации сотрудничества и китайского сухопутного проекта «Экономический пояс Великого Шёлкового пути» и их возможного влияния на обеспечение энергетической безопасности как России и Китая, так и всей Евразии. Обоснован принцип разумной достаточности диверсификации источников энергоснабжения и рынков энергоресурсов

A New Process-Based Soil Methane Scheme:Evaluation Over Arctic Field Sites With the ISBA Land Surface Model

Permafrost soils and arctic wetlands methane emissions represent an important challenge for modeling the future climate. Here we present a process-based model designed to correctly represent the main thermal, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes related to these emissions for general land surface modeling. We propose a new multilayer soil carbon and gas module within the Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) land-surface model (LSM). This module represents carbon pools, vertical carbon dynamics, and both oxic and anoxic organic matter decomposition. It also represents the soil gas processes for CH4, CO2, and O2 through the soil column. We base CH4 production and oxydation on an O2 control instead of the classical water table level strata approach used in state-of-the-art soil CH4 models. We propose a new parametrization of CH4 oxydation using recent field experiments and use an explicit O2 limitation for soil carbon decomposition. Soil gas transport is computed explicitly, using a revisited formulation of plant-mediated transport, a new representation of gas bulk diffusivity in porous media closer to experimental observations, and an innovative advection term for ebullition. We evaluate this advanced model on three climatically distinct sites : two in Greenland (Nuuk and Zackenberg) and one in Siberia (Chokurdakh). The model realistically reproduces methane and carbon dioxide emissions from both permafrosted and nonpermafrosted sites. The evolution and vertical characteristics of the underground processes leading to these fluxes are consistent with current knowledge. Results also show that physics is the main driver of methane fluxes, and the main source of variability appears to be the water table depth

BVOC ecosystem flux measurements at a high latitude wetland site

In this study, we present summertime concentrations and fluxes of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) measured at a sub-arctic wetland in northern Sweden using a disjunct eddy-covariance (DEC) technique based on a proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). The vegetation at the site was dominated by <i>Sphagnum</i>, <i>Carex</i> and extit{Eriophorum} spp. The measurements reported here cover a period of 50 days (1 August to 19 September 2006), approximately one half of the growing season at the site, and allowed to investigate the effect of day-to-day variation in weather as well as of vegetation senescence on daily BVOC fluxes, and on their temperature and light responses. The sensitivity drift of the DEC system was assessed by comparing H<sub>3</sub>O<sup>+</sup>-ion cluster formed with water molecules (H<sub>3</sub>O<sup>+</sup>(H<sub>2</sub>O) at m37) with water vapour concentration measurements made using an adjacent humidity sensor, and the applicability of the DEC method was analysed by a comparison of sensible heat fluxes for high frequency and DEC data obtained from the sonic anemometer. These analyses showed no significant PTR-MS sensor drift over a period of several weeks and only a small flux-loss due to high-frequency spectrum omissions. This loss was within the range expected from other studies and the theoretical considerations. <br><br> Standardised (20 °C and 1000 μmol m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> PAR) summer isoprene emission rates found in this study of 329 μg C m<sup>−2</sup> (ground area) h<sup>−1</sup> were comparable with findings from more southern boreal forests, and fen-like ecosystems. On a diel scale, measured fluxes indicated a stronger temperature dependence than emissions from temperate or (sub)tropical ecosystems. For the first time, to our knowledge, we report ecosystem methanol fluxes from a sub-arctic ecosystem. Maximum daytime emission fluxes were around 270 μg m<sup>−2</sup> h<sup>−1</sup> (ca. 100 μg C m<sup>−2</sup> h<sup>−1</sup>), and during most nights small negative fluxes directed from the atmosphere to the surface were observed

МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ ПО ОСУЩЕСТВЛЕНИЮ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ТЭК С УЧЕТОМ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ ФИНАНСОВО-ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРАКТИКИ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОГО КОМПЛЕКСА)

Purpose: development of methodical recommendations about long and medium-term forecasting of an oil and gas complex. Considering a number of the inexact forecasts made in the last 4–8 years and also high dependence of economy of our country on power, on an oil and gas complex – the contribution of problems of forecasting and assessment of strategic alternatives of development of energy industry to national security is still underestimated and demands improvement of methodology of carrying out technical and economic researches in this area.Methods: of carrying out work: the analysis of regularities of scientific and technological development of the large companies as systems, the analysis of normative documents, the system analysis, models on the basis of game theory, scenario approach, Forsythe's elements.Results: accounting of features of the integrated structure of the company when forecasting prospects of her technological development; modeling of results of adaptation of activity of the vertically integrated oil and oil and gas companies to short-term changes of price dynamics; recommendations about improvement of methodology of creation of corporate scenarios of technological development.Conclusions and relevance: vertically integrated companiesareabrightexampleofhowmining-and-geologicalandinfrastructurerestrictions set to technological progress others, in comparison with predicted, rates of realization of new technologies and the direction them evolution now. "The built-in defects the" of methods applied in the course of Forsythe can be compensated or are even eliminated if in the course of obtaining expert answers, and in processing of results of poll to apply a number of basic regularities of long-term technical and economic development and also modern developments in the field of scenario approach, the system analysis and game theory.Методология проведения работы: Анализ закономерностей научно-технологического развития крупных компаний как систем, анализ нормативных документов, системный анализ, модели на базе теории игр, сценарный подход, элементы Форсайта.Результаты работы: Анализ и учет особенностей интегрированной структуры компании при прогнозировании перспектив ее технологического развития; моделирование результатов адаптации деятельности вертикально-интегрированных нефтяных и нефтегазовых компаний к краткосрочным изменениям ценовой динамики; рекомендации по совершенствованию методологии построения корпоративных сценариев технологического развития.Выводы: Вертикально интегрированные компании являются в настоящее время наглядным примером того, как горно-геологические и инфраструктурные ограничения задают технологическому прогрессу иные, по сравнению с прогнозируемыми, темпы реализации новых технологий и направление их эволюции. «Встроенные дефекты» методов, применяемых в процессе Форсайта, могут быть скомпенсированы или даже устранены, если ив процессе получения экспертных ответов ив процессе обработки результатов исследования анализа применять ряд базовых закономерностей долгосрочного технико-экономического развития, а также современные разработки в области сценарного подхода, системного анализа и теории игр, ориентированных на результат

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season