Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system

Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures

Penerapan Hukum Hot Pursuit terhadap Pelaku Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing di Indonesia

Praktik kejahatan IUU Fishing oleh kapal asing sering ditemukan di wilayah perairan teritorial di ZEE Indonesia. Hot Pursuit diatur dalam Pasal 111 UNCLOS 1982 dan diatur lebih lanjut pada Pasal 66 c huruf (i) Undang-undang No.45 Tahun 2009 tentang Perikanan beserta Standar Operasional dan Prosedur penindakan sebagai instrumen hukum yang digunakan oleh aparatur lembaga seperti Satgas 115 PSDKP. Tujuan utama yakni dalam rangka upaya melakukan tindakan pencegahan bagi pelanggaran hukum di laut termasuk pelaku IUU Fishing yang dilakukan oleh kapal asing. Penelitian hukum ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaturan hukum hot pursuit dalam upaya pencegahan berdasarkan hukum terhadap IUU fishing di wilayah yurisdiksi Indonesia dan untuk menganalisis penerapan hukum terkait kewenangan institusi penegakan hukum terhadap pelaku kejahatan IUU fishing. Metode penelitian yakni melalui pendekatan yuridis normatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaturan hukum hot pursuit di Indonesia perlu ditindaklanjuti dengan upaya pencegahan terhadap pelaku IUU fishing. Upaya tersebut antara lain melalui peningkatan pengawasan dan pengendalian yang dilakukan secara efektif dan efisien sesuai dengan prinsip-prinsip hukum internasional di wilayah perairan Indonesia. Penerapan hukum terkait kewenangan institusi penegakan hukum ditegaskan melalui sekumpulan peraturan perundang-undangan yang antara lain memberikan kewenangan penegakan hukum pemberantasan kejahatan IUU Fishing kepada Satgas KKP

Heritable Variation in Garter Snake Color Patterns in Postglacial Populations

Global climate change is expected to trigger northward shifts in the ranges of natural populations of plants and animals, with subsequent effects on intraspecific genetic diversity. Investigating how genetic diversity is patterned among populations that arose following the last Ice Age is a promising method for understanding the potential future effects of climate change. Theoretical and empirical work has suggested that overall genetic diversity can decrease in colonial populations following rapid expansion into postglacial landscapes, with potential negative effects on the ability of populations to adapt to new environmental regimes. The crucial measure of this genetic variation and a population's overall adaptability is the heritable variation in phenotypic traits, as it is this variation that mediates the rate and direction of a population's multigenerational response to selection. Using two large full-sib quantitative genetic studies (NManitoba = 144; NSouth Dakota = 653) and a smaller phenotypic analysis from Kansas (NKansas = 44), we compared mean levels of pigmentation, genetic variation and heritability in three pigmentation traits among populations of the common garter snake, Thamnophis sirtalis, along a north-south gradient, including a postglacial northern population and a putative southern refuge population. Counter to our expectations, we found that genetic variance and heritability for the three pigmentation traits were the same or higher in the postglacial population than in the southern population

Absence of system xc⁻ on immune cells invading the central nervous system alleviates experimental autoimmune encephalitis

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease that affects the central nervous system (CNS), leading to neurodegeneration and chronic disability. Accumulating evidence points to a key role for neuroinflammation, oxidative stress, and excitotoxicity in this degenerative process. System x(c)- or the cystine/glutamate antiporter could tie these pathological mechanisms together: its activity is enhanced by reactive oxygen species and inflammatory stimuli, and its enhancement might lead to the release of toxic amounts of glutamate, thereby triggering excitotoxicity and neurodegeneration. Methods: Semi-quantitative Western blotting served to study protein expression of xCT, the specific subunit of system x(c)-, as well as of regulators of xCT transcription, in the normal appearing white matter (NAWM) of MS patients and in the CNS and spleen of mice exposed to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an accepted mouse model of MS. We next compared the clinical course of the EAE disease, the extent of demyelination, the infiltration of immune cells and microglial activation in xCT-knockout (xCT(-/-)) mice and irradiated mice reconstituted in xCT(-/-) bone marrow (BM), to their proper wild type (xCT(+/+)) controls. Results: xCT protein expression levels were upregulated in the NAWM of MS patients and in the brain, spinal cord, and spleen of EAE mice. The pathways involved in this upregulation in NAWM of MS patients remain unresolved. Compared to xCT(+/+) mice, xCT(-/-) mice were equally susceptible to EAE, whereas mice transplanted with xCT(-/-) BM, and as such only exhibiting loss of xCT in their immune cells, were less susceptible to EAE. In none of the above-described conditions, demyelination, microglial activation, or infiltration of immune cells were affected. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate enhancement of xCT protein expression in MS pathology and suggest that system x(c)- on immune cells invading the CNS participates to EAE. Since a total loss of system x(c)- had no net beneficial effects, these results have important implications for targeting system x(c)- for treatment of MS

Irbesartan in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction

Background: Approximately 50% of patients with heart failure have a left ventricular ejection fraction of at least 45%, but no therapies have been shown to improve the outcome of these patients. Therefore, we studied the effects of irbesartan in patients with this syndrome. Methods: We enrolled 4128 patients who were at least 60 years of age and had New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV heart failure and an ejection fraction of at least 45% and randomly assigned them to receive 300 mg of irbesartan or placebo per day. The primary composite outcome was death from any cause or hospitalization for a cardiovascular cause (heart failure, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, arrhythmia, or stroke). Secondary outcomes included death from heart failure or hospitalization for heart failure, death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, and quality of life. Results: During a mean follow-up of 49.5 months, the primary outcome occurred in 742 patients in the irbesartan group and 763 in the placebo group. Primary event rates in the irbesartan and placebo groups were 100.4 and 105.4 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 1.05; P=0.35). Overall rates of death were 52.6 and 52.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.14; P=0.98). Rates of hospitalization for cardiovascular causes that contributed to the primary outcome were 70.6 and 74.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.08; P=0.44). There were no significant differences in the other prespecified outcomes. Conclusions: Irbesartan did not improve the outcomes of patients with heart failure and a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00095238.)

Subcoronary versus supracoronary aortic stenosis. an experimental evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Valvular aortic stenosis is the most common cause of left ventricular hypertrophy due to gradually increasing pressure work. As the stenosis develop the left ventricular hypertrophy may lead to congestive heart failure, increased risk of perioperative complications and also increased risk of sudden death. A functional porcine model imitating the pathophysiological nature of valvular aortic stenosis is very much sought after in order to study the geometrical and pathophysiological changes of the left ventricle, timing of surgery and also pharmacological therapy in this patient group.</p> <p>Earlier we developed a porcine model for aortic stenosis based on supracoronary aortic banding, this model may not completely imitate the pathophysiological changes that occurs when valvular aortic stenosis is present including the coronary blood flow. It would therefore be desirable to optimize this model according to the localization of the stenosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 20 kg pigs subcoronary (n = 8), supracoronary aortic banding (n = 8) or sham operation (n = 4) was preformed via a left lateral thoracotomy. The primary endpoint was left ventricular wall thickness; secondary endpoints were heart/body weight ratio and the systolic/diastolic blood flow ratio in the left anterior descending coronary. Statistical evaluation by oneway anova and unpaired t-test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sub- and supracoronary banding induce an equal degree of left ventricular hypertrophy compared with the control group. The coronary blood flow ratio was slightly but not significantly higher in the supracoronary group (ratio = 0.45) compared with the two other groups (subcoronary ratio = 0.36, control ratio = 0.34).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A human pathophysiologically compatible porcine model for valvular aortic stenosis was developed by performing subcoronary aortic banding. Sub- and supracoronary aortic banding induce an equal degree of left ventricular hypertrophy. This model may be valid for experimental investigations of aortic valve stenosis but studies of left ventricular hypertrophy can be studied equally well by graduated constriction of the ascending aorta.</p

Guidelines for Diagnosis of Cystic Fibrosis in Newborns through Older Adults: Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Consensus Report

Newborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) is increasingly being implemented and is soon likely to be in use throughout the United States, because early detection permits access to specialized medical care and improves outcomes. The diagnosis of CF is not always straightforward, however. The sweat chloride test remains the gold standard for CF diagnosis but does not always give a clear answer. Genotype analysis also does not always provide clarity; more than 1500 mutations have been identified in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene, not all of which result in CF. Harmful mutations in the gene can present as a spectrum of pathology ranging from sinusitis in adulthood to severe lung, pancreatic, or liver disease in infancy. Thus, CF identified postnatally must remain a clinical diagnosis. To provide guidance for the diagnosis of both infants with positive NBS results and older patients presenting with an indistinct clinical picture, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation convened a meeting of experts in the field of CF diagnosis. Their recommendations, presented herein, involve a combination of clinical presentation, laboratory testing, and genetics to confirm a diagnosis of CF