Modelling and evaluation of the diffusion of electric vehicles: existing models, results, and proposal for a new model.

In this paper we review the available methods, models and results about the diffusion of electric vehicles and the evaluation of related policy. We show that existing models often relate to contexts that are not relevant for the design of policies that could take place in Europe. We also find that many models rely on exogenous diffusion assumption and are not intended to simulate the effects of alternative policy packages, which can significantly limit their scope. Moreover we find that only a few of the studies presenting themselves as costs-benefit analysis really perform what they claim. We also draw some conclusions on the features of models that would be needed to derive recommendations relevant in the European policy framework

The welfare effects of freight travel time savings

In this article we investigate the welfare effect of freight travel time savings. The general setup of this article is to suppose that transport operators face a constraint on minimum travel time and to examine what is occurring when this minimum travel time is changed. We briefly examine the current assessment methods and propose a less restrictive approach, in which we analyse how different economic agents trade off between the duration and cost of the different operations that are used in production and transport activities. We analyse how the change in the minimum travel time affects the different economic agents and investigate how these changes should be valued in cost benefit analysis.freight value of time; cost benefit analysis

Benefits of travel time savings for freight transportation : beyond the costs

The purpose of this presentation is to investigate whether current practices in Cost Benefit Analysis do not underestimate the actual benefits accruing to the economy when transport investment reduces transport time. In a first section we define the different time related attributes of transport. We differentiate the various time dimensions of freight transportation services (time, reliability, frequency, responsiveness, etc). We decide to focus our analysis on Travel Time savings. We also investigate the meaning of the expression value of time in the specific context of freight transportation. We also recognise the variability of time perception among freight operators and between circumstances. In a second section we investigate the current practices in various European countries. We find that the overwhelming majority of countries estimate the benefits of improved network through the reduction in transport costs. However there is a strong case that the total benefits may exceed this mere cost reduction. In a third section, we show that shippers exhibit a significant willingness to pay for faster deliveries. This may have different causes like potential reorganisation of the production and distribution process, trading time consuming production technique against transport time, or increasing the time dimension of goods and services. This question should be carefully distinguished from the recurrent question about indirect effects. If direct effects are those that are captured by the supplier and consumer surplus of the market under study, then the potential extra benefit that are scrutinised in the study are part of the direct and not indirect effects. We also demonstrate that a benefit analysis based on traditional definitions of surplus should take into account these additional effects. We try to identify methods to measure these extra benefits. We review results obtained by previous attempts to measure this willingness to pay, based on RP data and SP exercises. We present the benefits and drawbacks of different measurement methods. Eventually, we show the impact of taking into account these extra benefits on projects' evaluation. and test the sensibility of Cost Benefit Ratio on a set of typical road investment projects in the U.K.

Costs and efficiency of highway concessionaires: a survey of Italian operators

Measuring the productivity of highway concessionaires is very relevant, especially when a price cap regulation is applied where tariff increases are based on expected improvements of productivity. Output may be measured in terms of traffic or network length, or a combination of both, while quality of service should ideally be accounted for. To measure productivity we consider only operating costs, as amortization and financial costs depend upon the original highway design and historical costs. A cross section analysis of the Italian concessionaires shows that: 1) operating costs depend on both traffic and capacity; 2) economies of scale are relevant but their estimate is very sensitive to the model specification; 3) there are large differences in efficiency among operators, indicating that there could be significant room for yardstick competition. We subsequently consider the main economic data regarding the major Italian concessionaire (Autostrade spa) over two decades. Revenues increased greatly, even more than traffic, while operating costs remained substantially stable in real terms, as the automation of toll collection allowed the company to reduce the number of collectors by almost half. Finally, a comparison between Italian and French concessionaires shows that the latter have much lower operating costs, which cannot be entirely explained by economies of scale or lower personnel costs.Highway; Regulation; Productivity; Price-cap

How Much Will this Event Benefit Our Economy? A Checklist for Economic Impact Assessments with Application to Milan 2015 Expo

Policy makers, policy advisers and the general public frequently perceive events as beneficial to the economy of the host city. Such belief is supported by numerous Economic Impact studies, often based on Input-Output models, which usually exhibit large positive impacts. However, research has identified potential issues in Economic Impact studies that may result in misguiding policy recommendations. Yet, no systematic presentation of such potential flaws is available to the researcher and the practitioners. To fill in this gap, this article proposes a set of criteria based on 7 categories and 32 criteria and applies them to the latest mega events held in Italy. This application supports the value of our proposed criteria and suggests that the claims based on existing studies are debatle

Costs and efficiency of highway concessionaires: a survey of Italian operators

Measuring the productivity of highway concessionaires is very relevant, especially when a price cap regulation is applied where tariff increases are based on expected improvements of productivity. Output may be measured in terms of traffic or network length, or a combination of both, while quality of service should ideally be accounted for. To measure productivity we consider only operating costs, as amortization and financial costs depend upon the original highway design and historical costs. A cross section analysis of the Italian concessionaires shows that: 1) operating costs depend on both traffic and capacity; 2) economies of scale are relevant but their estimate is very sensitive to the model specification; 3) there are large differences in efficiency among operators, indicating that there could be significant room for yardstick competition. We subsequently consider the main economic data regarding the major Italian concessionaire (Autostrade spa) over two decades. Revenues increased greatly, even more than traffic, while operating costs remained substantially stable in real terms, as the automation of toll collection allowed the company to reduce the number of collectors by almost half. Finally, a comparison between Italian and French concessionaires shows that the latter have much lower operating costs, which cannot be entirely explained by economies of scale or lower personnel costs

The use of Stated Preferences to forecast alternative fuel vehicles market diffusion: Comparisons with other methods and proposal for a Synthetic Utility Function

Stated Preferences are, together with Bass diffusion and, to a lesser extent, Total Cost of Ownership, the most popular methods to forecast the future diffusion of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In this contribution, we compare the merits and limitations of SP relative to other methods. We also review the empirical results provided by SP surveys and assess their validity for modeling market diffusion. We also propose a meta-analysis-based Synthetic Utility Function that consolidates results across various studies and can be used, for simulation purpose, in a Discrete Choice Model context. Such an approach makes the simulation results less dependent of single surveys’idiosyncrasies, and hence is helpful for the formulation of robust policy recommendations