Flexible covariance estimation in graphical Gaussian models

In this paper, we propose a class of Bayes estimators for the covariance matrix of graphical Gaussian models Markov with respect to a decomposable graph $G$. Working with the $W_{P_G}$ family defined by Letac and Massam [Ann. Statist. 35 (2007) 1278--1323] we derive closed-form expressions for Bayes estimators under the entropy and squared-error losses. The $W_{P_G}$ family includes the classical inverse of the hyper inverse Wishart but has many more shape parameters, thus allowing for flexibility in differentially shrinking various parts of the covariance matrix. Moreover, using this family avoids recourse to MCMC, often infeasible in high-dimensional problems. We illustrate the performance of our estimators through a collection of numerical examples where we explore frequentist risk properties and the efficacy of graphs in the estimation of high-dimensional covariance structures.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS619 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Drought cuts back regeneration in logged tropical forests

Logged tropical forests represent a major opportunity for preserving biodiversity and sequestering carbon, playing a large role in meeting global forest restoration targets. Left alone, these ecosystems have been expected to undergo natural regeneration and succession towards old growth forests, but extreme drought events may challenge this process. While old growth forests possess a certain level of resilience, we lack understanding as to how logging may affect forest responses to drought. This study examines the drought–logging interaction in seedling dynamics within a landscape of logged and unlogged forests in Sabah Malaysia, based on 73 plots monitored before and after the 2015-16 El Niño drought. Drought increased seedling mortality in all forests, but the magnitude of this impact was modulated by logging intensity, with forests with lower canopy leaf area index (LAI) and above ground biomass (AGB) experiencing greater drought induced mortality. Moreover, community traits in more heavily logged forests shifted towards being more ruderal after drought, suggesting that the trajectory of forest succession had been reversed. These results indicate that with reoccurring strong droughts under a changing climate, logged forests that have had over half of their biomass removed may suffer permanently arrested succession. Targeted management interventions may therefore be necessary to lift the vulnerable forests above the biomass threshold

Study of single muons with the Large Volume Detector at Gran Sasso Laboratory

The present study is based on the sample of about 3 mln single muons observed by LVD at underground Gran Sasso Laboratory during 36500 live hours from June 1992 to February 1998. We have measured the muon intensity at slant depths from 3 km w.e. to 20 km w.e. Most events are high energy downward muons produced by meson decay in the atmosphere. The analysis of these muons has revealed the power index of pion and kaon spectrum: 2.76 \pm 0.05. The reminders are horizontal muons produced by the neutrino interactions in the rock surrounding LVD. The value of this flux is obtained. The results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations and the world data.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in "Physics of Atomic Nuclei

Upper Limit on the Prompt Muon Flux Derived from the LVD Underground Experiment

We present the analysis of the muon events with all muon multiplicities collected during 21804 hours of operation of the first LVD tower. The measured depth-angular distribution of muon intensities has been used to obtain the normalization factor, A, the power index, gamma, of the primary all-nucleon spectrum and the ratio, R_c, of prompt muon flux to that of pi-mesons - the main parameters which determine the spectrum of cosmic ray muons at the sea level. The value of gamma = 2.77 +/- 0.05 (68% C.L.) and R_c < 2.0 x 10^-3 (95% C.L.) have been obtained. The upper limit to the prompt muon flux favours the models of charm production based on QGSM and the dual parton model.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, RevTex. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Muon `Depth -- Intensity' Relation Measured by LVD Underground Experiment and Cosmic-Ray Muon Spectrum at Sea Level

We present the analysis of the muon events with all muon multiplicities collected during 21804 hours of operation of the first LVD tower. The measured angular distribution of muon intensity has been converted to the `depth -- vertical intensity' relation in the depth range from 3 to 12 km w.e.. The analysis of this relation allowed to derive the power index, $\gamma$, of the primary all-nucleon spectrum: $\gamma=2.78 \pm 0.05$. The `depth -- vertical intensity' relation has been converted to standard rock and the comparison with the data of other experiments has been done. We present also the derived vertical muon spectrum at sea level.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, to be published on Phys. Rev.

Measurement of the diffractive structure function in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

This paper presents an analysis of the inclusive properties of diffractive deep inelastic scattering events produced in $ep$ interactions at HERA. The events are characterised by a rapidity gap between the outgoing proton system and the remaining hadronic system. Inclusive distributions are presented and compared with Monte Carlo models for diffractive processes. The data are consistent with models where the pomeron structure function has a hard and a soft contribution. The diffractive structure function is measured as a function of \xpom, the momentum fraction lost by the proton, of $\beta$, the momentum fraction of the struck quark with respect to \xpom, and of $Q^2$. The \xpom dependence is consistent with the form \xpoma where $a~=~1.30~\pm~0.08~(stat)~^{+~0.08}_{-~0.14}~(sys)$ in all bins of $\beta$ and $Q^2$. In the measured $Q^2$ range, the diffractive structure function approximately scales with $Q^2$ at fixed $\beta$. In an Ingelman-Schlein type model, where commonly used pomeron flux factor normalisations are assumed, it is found that the quarks within the pomeron do not saturate the momentum sum rule.Comment: 36 pages, latex, 11 figures appended as uuencoded fil

Measurement of inclusive D*+- and associated dijet cross sections in photoproduction at HERA

Inclusive photoproduction of D*+- mesons has been measured for photon-proton centre-of-mass energies in the range 130 < W < 280 GeV and a photon virtuality Q^2 < 1 GeV^2. The data sample used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 37 pb^-1. Total and differential cross sections as functions of the D* transverse momentum and pseudorapidity are presented in restricted kinematical regions and the data are compared with next-to-leading order (NLO) perturbative QCD calculations using the "massive charm" and "massless charm" schemes. The measured cross sections are generally above the NLO calculations, in particular in the forward (proton) direction. The large data sample also allows the study of dijet production associated with charm. A significant resolved as well as a direct photon component contribute to the cross section. Leading order QCD Monte Carlo calculations indicate that the resolved contribution arises from a significant charm component in the photon. A massive charm NLO parton level calculation yields lower cross sections compared to the measured results in a kinematic region where the resolved photon contribution is significant.Comment: 32 pages including 6 figure

Measurement of Jet Shapes in Photoproduction at HERA

The shape of jets produced in quasi-real photon-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies in the range $134-277$ GeV has been measured using the hadronic energy flow. The measurement was done with the ZEUS detector at HERA. Jets are identified using a cone algorithm in the $\eta - \phi$ plane with a cone radius of one unit. Measured jet shapes both in inclusive jet and dijet production with transverse energies $E^{jet}_T>14$ GeV are presented. The jet shape broadens as the jet pseudorapidity ($\eta^{jet}$) increases and narrows as $E^{jet}_T$ increases. In dijet photoproduction, the jet shapes have been measured separately for samples dominated by resolved and by direct processes. Leading-logarithm parton-shower Monte Carlo calculations of resolved and direct processes describe well the measured jet shapes except for the inclusive production of jets with high $\eta^{jet}$ and low $E^{jet}_T$. The observed broadening of the jet shape as $\eta^{jet}$ increases is consistent with the predicted increase in the fraction of final state gluon jets.Comment: 29 pages including 9 figure

Leading Proton Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

The semi-inclusive reaction e+p→e+Xp was studied with the ZEUS detector at HERA with an integrated luminosity of 12.8 pb -1. The final-state proton, which was detected with the ZEUS leading proton spectrometer, carried a large fraction of the incoming proton energy, xL \u3e 0.32, and its transverse momentum squared satisfied p 2T \u3c 0.5GeV2; the exchanged photon virtuality, Q2, was greater than 3GeV2 and the range of the masses of the photon-proton system was 45 \u3c W \u3c 225GeV. The leading proton production cross section and rates are presented as a function of xL, p2 T , Q2 and the Bjorken scaling variable, x. © SISSA 2009