Evolución de la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo y del riesgo cardiovascular global en población mayor de 18 años de la provincia de Albacete (1992-94 a 2004-06)

Background: To establish strategies for prevention of cardiovascular disease implies to know its epidemiology and evolution in time. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence of risk factors and cardiovascular risk in two moments during the following of a grownup general population. Methods: Study of cohorts, followed at random selected general population during 12 years (1992-94 to 2204-06). Two transversal studies were made, one at the beginning and the other one at the end of this follow-up. The population in this study was 18 years and older registered in the province of Albacete. Random sampling, stratified and two-stage. The sample size for the first cut was 2121 subjects and for second one 1577. One specific anamnesis was made, physical examination, measurement of blood pressure, electrocardiogram and extraction of venous blood. The studied variables were: age, sex, personal and familiar antecedents, risk factors and global cardiovascular risk. Results: 1322 subjects went to the appointment for the first examination (mean age 48.2 years. 53.6% women) and 997 for the second (mean age 52.8 years. 56.7% women). Has Increased the prevalence of hypertension (32.7% to 41,2%), diabetes (9,8 to 11,4%), obesity (27,8 to 34,3%) and hypercolesterolemia (47,5 to 53,5%), whereas smokers have decreased (32,6 to 23,7%) and have handicapped the average values of arterial pressure (132/81 to 129/73 mmHg), glycaemia (100,8 to 92,8 mg/dl) and LDL-cholesterol (128,7 to 116,7 mg/dl) and also a lowering of cardiovascular risk with Framingham (10,8% to 8,2%) and Score (2,3% to 1,6%). Conclusions: In the last years an increasing prevalence of risk factors has been seen (hypertension, diabetes and hypercolesterolemia), a better control of them, and lower prevalence of smoking and cardiovascular risk in the population has also be seen.Fundamento: Establecer estrategias de prevención de la enfermedad cardiovascular implica conocer su epidemiología y evolución en el tiempo. El objetivo del estudio es conocer las prevalencias de los factores de riesgo y del riesgo cardiovascular en dos momentos de seguimiento de una población general adulta. Métodos: Dentro de un estudio longitudinal y prospectivo con población general seleccionada al azar seguida durante 12 años (1992-94 a 2004-2006) se hacen dos análisis trasversales al inicio y en el último corte de seguimiento. La población objeto de estudio fueron personas mayores de 18 años censadas en la provincia de Albacete. Muestreo aleatorio, estratificado y bietápico. Tamaño muestral 2.121 y 1.577 sujetos en cada uno de los cortes. Se hizo anamnesis, exploración física, medida de presión arterial, electrocardiograma y extracción de sangre venosa. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, sexo, antecedentes personales y familiares, factores de riesgo y riesgo cardiovascular global. Resultados: En el primer examen acudieron a la cita 1.322 sujetos (edad media 48,2 años. 53,6% mujeres) y 997 en el segundo (edad media 52,8 años. 56,7% mujeres). Hubo un aumento en la prevalencia de hipertensión (32,7% a 41,2%) diabetes mellitus (9,8 a 11,4%), obesidad (27,8 a 34,3%) e hipercolesterolemia (47,5 a 53,5%), una disminución de fumadores (32,6 a 23,7%), de valores medios de presión arterial (132/81 a 129/73 mmHg), glucemia (100,8 a 92,8 mg/dl) y col-LDL (128,7 a 116,7 mg/dl) y un descenso del riesgo cardiovascular con Framingham (10,8% a 8,2%) y Score (2,3% a 1,6%). Conclusiones: En los últimos años se observa un aumento en la prevalencia de factores de riesgo (hipertensión, diabetes e hipercolestrerolemia), un mejor control de los mismos, una menor prevalencia de fumadores y menor riesgo cardiovascular en la población

Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.

BackgroundThe question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity.MethodsThe cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated.ResultsThe mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (PConclusionsThe results support the proposal for "reclassification" of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe

Calibration data in risk tertiles.

<p>Mean predicted CVR (%) with the D’Agostino function versus actual events over 10.6 years of follow-up in risk tertiles (3.a women and 3.b men).</p

Area under the ROC curve for women (2.a) and men (2.b).

<p>The calculated cardiovascular risk correctly classified overall 78.9% (95%CI, 71.6-86.3) of the women and 78.0% (95%CI, 71.3-84.7) of the men (P<0.001 both).</p