Strong Gradients in Forest Sensitivity to Climate Change Revealed by Dynamics of Forest Fire Cycles in the Post Little Ice Age Era

The length of the fire cycle is a critical factor affecting the vegetation cover in boreal and temperate regions. However, its responses to climate change remain poorly understood. We reanalyzed data from earlier studies of forest age structures at the landscape level, in order to map the evolution of regional fire cycles across Eastern North American boreal and temperate forests, following the termination of the Little Ice Age (LIA). We demonstrated a well-defined spatial pattern of post-LIA changes in the length of fire cycles toward lower fire activity during the 1800s and 1900s. The western section of Eastern North America (west of 77°W) experienced a decline in fire activity as early as the first half of the 1800s. By contrast, the eastern section showed these declines as late as the early 1900s. During a regionally fire-prone period of the 1910s–1920s, forests in the western section of Eastern boreal North America burned more than forests in the eastern section. The climate appeared to dominate over vegetation composition and human impacts in shaping the geographical pattern of the post-LIA change in fire activity. Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns following the termination of the LIA, specifically changes in Arctic Oscillation and the strengthening of the Continental Polar Trough, were likely drivers of the regional fire dynamics

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth

Three steps towards metrological traceability for ballistics signature measurements.

Abstract The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in collaboration with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has developed the Standard Reference Material (SRM) bullets and casings. NIST and ATF are proposing to establish a National Ballistics Measurement Traceability and Quality System for ballistics signature measurements and correlations using these materials. In this paper, three key steps towards metrological traceability for ballistics signature measurements are discussed that include: 1) Establishing a reference standard; 2) Establishing an unbroken chain of calibrations; and 3) Evaluating measurement uncertainty

Monitoring climate sensitivity shifts in tree-rings of eastern boreal North America using model-data comparison: Shifts in tree growth sensitivity to climate

International audienceThe growth of high-latitude temperature-limited boreal forest ecosystems is projected to become more constrained by soil water availability with continued warming. The purpose of this study was to document ongoing shifts in tree growth sensitivity to the evolving local climate in unmanaged black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) B.S.P.) forests of eastern boreal North America (49°N-52°N, 58°W-82°W) using a comparative study of field and modeled data. We investigated growth relationships to climate (gridded monthly data) from observed (50 site tree-ring width chronologies) and simulated growth data (stand-level forest growth model) over 1908-2013. No clear strengthening of moisture control over tree growth in recent decades was detected. Despite climate warming, photosynthesis (main driver of the forest growth model) and xylem production (main driver of radial growth) have remained temperature-limited. Analyses revealed, however, a weakening of the influence of growing season temperature on growth during the mid- to late-20th century in the observed data, particularly in high-latitude (> 51.5 ºN) mountainous sites. This shift was absent from simulated data, which resulted in clear model-data desynchronization. Thorough investigations revealed that desynchronization was mostly linked to the quality of climate data, with precipitation data being of particular concern. The scarce network of weather stations over eastern boreal North America (> 51.5 °N) affects the accuracy of estimated local climate variability and critically limits our ability to detect climate change effects on high-latitude ecosystems, especially when drought severity is projected to rise. Climate estimates from remote sensing could help address some of these issues in the future

Unmodified rabies mRNA vaccine elicits high cross-neutralizing antibody titers and diverse B cell memory responses

Abstract Licensed rabies virus vaccines based on whole inactivated virus are effective in humans. However, there is a lack of detailed investigations of the elicited immune response, and whether responses can be improved using novel vaccine platforms. Here we show that two doses of a lipid nanoparticle-formulated unmodified mRNA vaccine encoding the rabies virus glycoprotein (RABV-G) induces higher levels of RABV-G specific plasmablasts and T cells in blood, and plasma cells in the bone marrow compared to two doses of Rabipur in non-human primates. The mRNA vaccine also generates higher RABV-G binding and neutralizing antibody titers than Rabipur, while the degree of somatic hypermutation and clonal diversity of the response are similar for the two vaccines. The higher overall antibody titers induced by the mRNA vaccine translates into improved cross-neutralization of related lyssavirus strains, suggesting that this platform has potential for the development of a broadly protective vaccine against these viruses