Structural Change and Landscape Appearance

Our study examines the potential developments of cultural landscapes, taking into consideration various economic and social conditions (scenarios). The study takes place in three project regions which represent typical landscapes in Southern Germany and Austria. In each project area, the influence of a changing economic and political framework is analysed. The following scenarios are defined: (1) status quo (current economic and agri-political framework); (2) high-producer prices and constant (or even increasing) direct payments; and (3) low-producer prices and no (or very low) direct payments. In all three regions, potential production responses are estimated for all farms and aggregated on a regional level. The estimation takes into account social and economic parameters such as cash flow, size and type of farms, age of farmers and workload. The results show that the impact of the changing agro-economic environment differs in particular on the level of the study regions. Due to a lack of production alternatives, agricultural production in grassland areas is very unstable – especially if site conditions are unfavourable and economic conditions are disadvantageous. As a result, largescale abandonment of agriculture is likely in lowyield grassland areas and consequences for landscape appearance might be dramatic. In highyield grassland areas, agriculture is much more stable. However, under very disadvantageous conditions the extent of farms giving-up production is as high as in marginal grassland regions. Nevertheless one cannot expect large-scale set aside, because remaining farmers use the possibility of growth and lease a considerable quantity of land In contrast to this, farm structure in the arable regions is stable due to a high potential of production alternatives. However, landscape appearance may also change dramatically in this region due to the increasing importance of maize.scenario analyses, structural change, landscape visualisation, Land Economics/Use,

Impact of the CAP Reform on Small-Scaled Grassland Regions in Bavaria, Germany

The CAP reform of 2003 will change farmer's business environment in Europe. This paper analyses the impact of the reform on the land use in southern German grassland regions. The assessment will be based on model calculations for two typical grassland regions. Each study area represents one village with its specific farm structure and natural conditions. These regions differ in their excellence with respect to agricultural use. In Southern Germany small to medium sized family farms is the most frequent type of farming. We use a regional land-use model that conceives farms as independent agents aiming at maximum individual utility. Farm agents optimize their farm organisation with the help of a linear-programming algorithm that takes into account natural, economic and personal restrictions. Interactions between farms take place on the land market, which is modelled as an equilibrium market. It becomes clear that the CAP reform of 2003 has various significant consequences with respect to grassland use. In particular the decreasing profitability of dairy farming will relatively promote low-intensive forms of grassland use, including mulching. If some payments (e. g. agri-environmental payments) remain coupled to livestock production area-wide agriculture can be maintained even in marginal areas. Land rents will generally increase in more marginal areas due to the effects of decoupling.CAP-reform, linear programming, land-market simulation, agent-based modelling, farmers attitude, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Impact of Agri-food Systems on Landscape Appearance

Our study examines the potential developments of cultural landscapes, taking into consideration various economic and social conditions (scenarios). The study takes place in three project regions which represent typical landscapes in Southern Germany and Austria. In each project area, the influence of a changing agri-food environment is analysed. The following scenarios are defined: (1) status quo (current economic and agri-political framework); (2) high-producer prices and constant (or even increasing) direct payments; and (3) low-producer prices and no (or very low) direct payments. In all three regions, potential production responses are estimated for all farms and aggregated on a regional level. The estimation takes into account social and economic parameters such as cash flow, size and type of farms, age of farmers and workload. The results show that the impact of the changing agro-economic environment differs in particular on the level of the study regions. Due to a lack of production alternatives, agricultural production in grassland areas is very unstable – especially if site conditions are unfavourable and economic conditions are disadvantageous. As a result, large-scale abandonment of agriculture is likely in low-yield grassland areas and consequences for landscape appearance might be dramatic. In high-yield grassland areas, agriculture is much more stable. However, under very disadvantageous conditions the extent of farms giving-up production is as high as in marginal grassland regions. Nevertheless one cannot expect large-scale set aside, because remaining farmers use the possibility of growth and lease a considerable quantity of land In contrast to this, farm structure in the arable regions is stable due to a high potential of production alternatives. However, landscape appearance may also change dramatically in this region due to the increasing importance of maize.scenario analyses, structural change, landscape visualisation, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital,

Impact of the CAP reform on small-scale grassland regions

This paper presents a regional land-use model that conceives farms as independent agents aiming at maximum individual utility. Farm agents optimize their utility with the help of a linear-programming algorithm that takes into account natural, economic and personal restrictions. Interactions between farms take place on the land market, which is modelled as an equilibrium market. The model is applied in three typical grassland regions in southern Bavaria. The results indicate that the CAP reform of 2003 has various significant consequences for grassland use. In particular, the decreasing profitability of dairy farming will lead to low-intensity forms of grassland use, including mulching. In general, land rents will increase due to the effects of decoupling.CAP Reform, linear programming, land-market simulation, agent-based modelling, farmers attitude, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

ESTIMATION OF COSTS FOR MAINTAINING LANDSCAPE ELEMENTS BY THE EXAMPLE OF SOUTHWEST GERMANY

In comparison to large-scale natural landscapes separated from extensively used agricultural production landscapes in North America or Australia, German and Central Europe landscapes are all charac-terised by predominantly agricultural landscapes with few "rests of nature". Due to the high population density, different types of land users demand different functions of the landscape. In addition to food production, there is a high demand for protection of cultural heritage by caring for e.g. hedge-rows in the landscape. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs arising from the maintenance of landscape elements in landscapes situated on land with different site conditions. As an example, the distribution of hedgerows on sites of varying agricultural quality were considered. The calculations were undertaken on the entire area of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Southwest Germany, comprising various administrative districts. The association between ecological and economic information was analysed statistically and with the help of GIS. The results indicate that the costs for landscape element protection differ within the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg and that there is a lot of economic pressure against hedgerow biotopes existing in certain districts. Measures for protection such as agri-environmental programmes should consider the different landscape-dependent costs.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Modulation - ein Ansatz zur Neuorientierung der Agrarpolitik?

In jüngster Zeit werden der Landwirtschaft neben der Nahrungsmittelproduktion weitere Aufgaben zugeschrieben, die bisher teilweise kostenloses Koppelprodukt waren und jetzt gezielt gegen gesonderte Honorierung erbracht werden sollen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag untersuchen Martin Kapfer, Prof. Dr. Alois Heißenhuber und Prof. Dr. Helmut Hoffmann, Technische Universität München, die mit der Agenda 2000 eingeführte Neuausrichtung der Agrarpolitik, wobei sie insbesondere auf die so genannte Modulation eingehen.Landwirtschaft, EU-Agrarpolitik, Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion

The Functional Trajectory in Frail Compared With Non-frail Critically Ill Patients During the Hospital Stay

Background: Long-term outcome is determined not only by the acute critical illness but increasingly by the reduced functional reserve of pre-existing frailty. The patients with frailty currently account for one-third of the critically ill, resulting in higher mortality. There is evidence of how frailty affects the intrahospital functional trajectory of critically ill patients since prehospital status is often missing. Methods: In this prospective single-center cohort study at two interdisciplinary intensive care units (ICUs) at a university hospital in Germany, the frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the adult patients with critical illness with an ICU stay >24 h. The functional status was assessed using the sum of the subdomains "Mobility" and "Transfer" of the Barthel Index (MTB) at three time points (pre-hospital, ICU discharge, and hospital discharge). Results: We included 1,172 patients with a median age of 75 years, of which 290 patients (25%) were frail. In a propensity score-matched cohort, the probability of MTB deterioration till hospital discharge did not differ in the patients with frailty (odds ratio (OR) 1.3 [95% CI 0.8-1.9], p = 0.301), confirmed in several sensitivity analyses in all the patients and survivors only. Conclusion: The patients with frailty have a reduced functional status. Their intrahospital functional trajectory, however, was not worse than those in non-frail patients, suggesting a rehabilitation potential of function in critically ill patients with frailty

GrassPlot v. 2.00 – first update on the database of multi-scale plant diversity in Palaearctic grasslands

Abstract: GrassPlot is a collaborative vegetation-plot database organised by the Eurasian Dry Grassland Group (EDGG) and listed in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD ID EU-00-003). Following a previous Long Database Report (Dengler et al. 2018, Phyto- coenologia 48, 331–347), we provide here the first update on content and functionality of GrassPlot. The current version (GrassPlot v. 2.00) contains a total of 190,673 plots of different grain sizes across 28,171 independent plots, with 4,654 nested-plot series including at least four grain sizes. The database has improved its content as well as its functionality, including addition and harmonization of header data (land use, information on nestedness, structure and ecology) and preparation of species composition data. Currently, GrassPlot data are intensively used for broad-scale analyses of different aspects of alpha and beta diversity in grassland ecosystems