EXPOSICIONES EN SITUACIÓN DE IMPAGO. ESTIMACIÓN DE PARÁMETROS PARA EL CÁLCULO DE CAPITAL REGULATORIO Y SU PREDICCIÓN MEDIANTE APRENDIZAJE AUTOMÁTICO

Los desarrollos regulatorios sobre la medición del riesgo se encuentran en varios documentos publicados tanto por la Autoridad Bancaria Europea como por el Banco Central Europeo. En base a ellos, se presenta una propuesta concreta de la mejor estimación de pérdida esperada (ELBE) y de la pérdida inesperada (LGD in-default). La metodología se calibra utilizando datos hipotecarios de bancos españoles y el resultado sirve para analizar el perfil de riesgo de las carteras. Recientemente, la pandemia de COVID-19 dificultó la gestión del riesgo financiero. Los métodos tradicionales no sirven estimar su impacto. Por ello, la ELBE se predice utilizando una técnica de aprendizaje automático. Se presenta la proyección de dos parámetros ELBE para el 2022 y su comparación. En una se considera impacto del brote y en la otra se presupone su inexistencia. El método tiene un excelente desempeño y sirve para estimar pérdidas futuras esperadas ante cualquier evento similar.Regulatory developments on risk measurement are included across several documents published both by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank. On this basis, a concrete proposal of the Expected Loss Best Estimate (ELBE) and the Loss Given Default (LGD) in-default models is presented. The methodology is eventually calibrated based on data from the mortgage’s portfolios of Spanish banks. The outcome serves to analyse the portfolios’ risk profile. Recently, the economic onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic compromised the financial risk management. Traditional methods fail to estimate the impact of such unprecedented situation. The ELBE is thus forecasted using a machine learning technique. The projection of two ELBEs for 2022 and their comparison are presented. One accounts for the outbreak’s impact, and the other presumes its nonexistence. The proposed method has excellent performance and serve to estimate future losses amidst any event of extraordinary magnitude.Tesis Univ. Jaén. Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilida

Trends in Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in Spanish Children and Adolescents across Two Decades

[Abstract]: Unhealthy dietary habits determined during childhood may represent a risk factor to many of the chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in adulthood. Mediterranean Diet (MD) adherence in children and adolescents (8–16 years) living in Spain was investigated using the KIDMED questionnaire in a comparative analysis of two cross-sectional nationwide representative studies: enKid (1998–2000, n = 1001) and PASOS (2019–2020, n = 3540). Taking into account the educational level of pupils, as well as the characteristics of the place of living, a significant association was found between a KIDMED score ≥ 8 (optimal MD adherence) and primary education as well as residency in an area of < 0.001). Participants of the 2019–2020 study showed an increase in the consumption of dairy products (31.1% increase), pasta/rice (15.4% increase), olive oil (16.9% increase), and nuts (9.7% increase), as well as a decreased sweets and candies intake (12.6% reduction). In contrast, a significantly lower MD adherence was found when comparing the 2019–2020 (mean ± SE: 6.9 ± 0.04) and the 1998–2000 study (7.37 ± 0.08); p < 0.001), due to less consumption of fish (20.3% reduction), pulse (19.4% reduction), and fruits (14.9% reduction), and an increased intake of commercial goods/pastries or fast-food intake (both 19.4% increase). The lowest adherence was recorded for adolescents also in the most recent study, where 10.9% of them presented a KIDMED score ≤ 3. This study shows that eating habits are deteriorating among Spanish children and adolescents. Such findings point out the urgency of undertaking strong measures to promote the consumption of healthy, sustainable, and non-ultra-processed food, such as those available in an MD, not only at a scientific and academic level, but also at a governmental one.The PASOS study (2019–2020) has been funded mainly by the Gasol Foundation and Fundación PROBITAS. Barça Foundation, Banco Santander, Vienna, Grupo IFA, and Fundación Deporte Joven also contributed additional funds. J.A.T., C.B., and M.G.-G. were funded by CIBEROBN (CB12/03/30038) of the Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The enKid study (1998–2000) had been a project funded by Kellogg’s España SA and Kellogg’s Company, Battle Creek, USA via the Fundación Universitaria de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and the Fundación para la Investigation Nutritional

Percepción del alumnado ante el uso de metodologías activas de enseñanza como respuesta a las demandas del espacio europeo de educación superior: un estudio de caso.

En la Facultad de Ciencias de la Actividad Física y el Deporte de la UEM se ha desarrollado una investigación durante el curso 2005-06, orientada a transformar el curso de primero al futuro  enfoque ECTS, según los planteamientos del espacio europeo de educación superior. Esto ha supuesto, entre otras cosas, un cambio en la metodología de enseñanza el profesorado, innovación que han vivido de forma compartida. La coordinación docente ha sido el centro de dicha investigación y ha generado numerosas actuaciones colegiadas. En este trabajo se presenta, desde una perspectiva de investigación cualitativa, los datos aportados sobre la percepción de los estudiantes ante los nuevos diseños educativos desarrollados en las aulas. La utilización de entrevistas en profundidad con los alumnos han puesto de manifiesto las ventajas e inconvenientes que han encontrado en los nuevos planteamientos. Las conclusiones de la investigación derivan en la constatación de un necesario cambio cultural en el ámbito universitario, tanto en el estudiante como en el profesorado

Percepció de l’alumnat davant l’ús de metodologies actives d’ensenyament com a resposta a les demandes de l’espai europeu d’educació superior: un estudi de cas.

A la Facultat de Ciències de l’Activitat Física i l’Esport de la UEM s’ha desenvolupat una recerca durant el curs 2005-06, orientada a transformar el curs de primer al futur enfocament ECTS, segons els plantejaments de l’espai europeu d’educació superior. Això ha suposat, entre altres coses, un canvi en la metodologia d’ensenyament del professorat, innovació que han viscut de forma compartida. La coordinació docent ha estat el centre d’aquesta investigació i ha generat nombroses actuacions col·legiades. En aquest treball es presenten, des d’una perspectiva d’investigació qualitativa, les dades aportades sobre la percepció dels estudiants davant els nous dissenys educatius desenvolupats a les aules. La utilització d’entrevistes en profunditat amb els alumnes han posat de manifest els avantatges i inconvenients que han trobat en els nous plantejaments. Les conclusions de la investigació deriven en la constatació d’un necessari canvi cultural en l’àmbit universitari, tant en l’estudiant com en el professorat

A techno-economic evaluation approach to the electrochemical reduction of CO2 for formic acid manufacture

Efforts to mitigate climate change require technological innovations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions together with the reduction of the consumption of natural resources in an economic way compared to conventional processes. This paper presents a prospective assessment of an alternative for carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization based on its electrochemical reduction (ER) to produce formic acid (FA). The methodology applied in the present study integrates a techno-economic assessment considering both the use of resources and a set of economic key process indicators versus the fossil-fuel based thermochemical conventional route. The results have demonstrated that the electricity consumption together with the consumables of the process (determined by the cathode lifetime) are the main contributors to the costs of production and therefore, to the profitability of the utilization plant. A sensitivity analysis was carried to evaluate the influence of the specific energy consumption in the profitability under a realistic ER approach. The results will assess the competitiveness of the production of FA by CO2 ER against the conventional manufacture in terms of economics. The study has demonstrated that the electrification of this kind of commodity production plants through inexpensive surpluses of renewable energy is needed for their future competitiveness.Authors thank to Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) for the financial support through the project CTQ2016-76231-C2-1-R. We would like also to thank MINECO for providing Marta Rumayor with a Juan de la Cierva postdoctoral contract (FJCI-2015-23658)

Deep decarbonization of the cement sector: a prospective environmental assessment of CO2 recycling to methanol

Current decarbonization pressures are prompting efforts to reimagine the future of the hard-to-abate cement sector. To date, fuel switching has arisen as the most readily operational strategy, and its application in the cement sector is expected in the short to midterm. However, around two-thirds of the cement CO2 emissions come from the calcination of limestone. The implementation of CO2 capture utilization and/or storage will be crucial to support a reliable net-zero carbon future by 2050–2070. CCS is considered as the most carbon-neutral technology in the cement decarbonization roadmap, while CO2 recycling (CCU) has arisen as a suitable strategy for those locations where there is an industrial symbiosis between the cement market and CO2-based chemical markets (e.g., methanol, formic acid, etc.). Despite that the CCU strategy cannot be carbon-neutral by itself, it could be a powerful option in combination with CCS. To date, most CO2 recycling technologies are still emerging, and their development has to be boosted in the next decades. In this study, a prospective environmental analysis has been conducted through life cycle thinking to explore the benefits of cement long-term decarbonization by implementing a carbon recycling plant (CRP) based on the emerging electrochemical reduction (ER) of CO2 to produce methanol (MeOH). The study aims to demonstrate the synergic decarbonization and defossilization for both cement and MeOH markets, respectively. Cell energy efficiency and MeOH concentration have been identified as the key performance parameters that should be around 60% and 40% wt, respectively, to ensure a future sustainable implementation of ER to the MeOH technology. A CRP powered by low-carbon renewable electricity (<0.02 kg CO2eq/kW h) and with a low-fossil depletion (FD) impact (<0.01 kg oileq/kW h) could lead to an integrated cement and MeOH production with sharp reductions in the carbon footprint (∼75%) and FD (∼66%) of the integrated cement and MeOH production compared to the conventional fossil-based productions. The proposed CO2 recycling scheme can contribute to accelerating the innovation of carbon capture and recycling technologies and their deployment in these hard-to-abate sectors.Funding has been obtained though the project PID2020-112845RB-I0

Perspectives for a sustainable implementation of super-green hydrogen production by photoelectrochemical technology in hard-to-abate sectors

The energy transition's success hinges on the effectiveness to curbing carbon emissions from hard-to-abate sectors. Hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as the candidate vector that could be used to replace fossils in such energy-intensive industries. Despite green H2 via solar-powered water electrolysis being a reality today, the overall defossilization of the hard-to-abate sectors by electrolytic H2 would be unfeasible as it relies on the availability of renewable electricity. In this sense, the unbiassed photoelectrochemical water splitting (PEC), as inspired by natural photosynthesis, may be a promising alternative expected in the long term. PEC could be partly or even completely decoupled from renewable electricity and then, could produce H2 autonomously. However, some remaining challenges still limit PEC water splitting to operate sustainably. These limitations need to be evaluated before the scaling up and implementation. A prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) has been used to elucidate a positive performance scenario in which the so-called super-green H2, or photo-H2, could be a sustainable alternative to electro-H2. The study has defined future scenarios by conducting a set of sensitivity assessments, determining the figures of operating parameters such as i) the energy to produce the cell; ii) solar-to-hydrogen efficiency (STH); and iii) lifetime. These parameters have been evaluated based on two impact categories: i) Global Warming Potential (GWP); and ii) fossil Abiotic Depletion Potentials (f-ADP). The mature water electrolysis was used for benchmarking in order to elucidate the target performance in which PEC technology could be positively implemented at large-scale. Efficiencies over 10% (STH) and 7 years of lifetime are compulsory in the coming developments to achieve a positive scaling-up.Financial support from the project PID2020-112845RB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 is gratefully acknowledged. J.F.-G. would like to thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICIN) for the concession of the FPU grant (19/05483)

CO2 electroreduction: sustainability analysis of the renewable synthetic natural gas

Capture and utilization of industrial CO2 emissions into low-carbon fuels is a promising alternative to store renewable electricity into chemical vectors while decarbonizing the economy. This work evaluates the viability pathways of producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) by direct CO2 electroreduction (ER) in Power-To-Synthetic Natural Gas electrolyzers (PtSNG). We perform an ex-ante techno-economic (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) for a 2030 framework in Europe. ER performance is varied in defined scenarios and assessed using a built-in process model of the PtSNG system, revealing uncharted limitations and benchmarks to achieve. Results show that substitution of fossil natural gas with renewable SNG could avoid more than 1 kg CO2e/kg SNG under moderate ER conditions when using low-carbon electricity (< 60 kg CO2e/MWh). SNG profitability for 2030 would rely on: i) higher CH4 current densities (800–1000 mA/cm2), ii) improvements in energy efficiency (higher than 60%), and iii) valorization of the anodic product or additional carbon incentives. Our study proves that if market and technology evolve appropriately in the coming years, the SNG by CO2 ER may be a mid-term climate change mitigation technology, among others.The authors thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the financial support through the project PID2020–114,787-RB-I00. Javier Fernández-González and Marta Rumayor would also like to thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for the concession of a FPU grant (FPU19/05483) and a Juan de la Cierva postdoctoral contract (IJCI-2017-32621), respectively

Using marine isoscapes to infer movements of oceanic migrants: the case of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) in the Atlantic Ocean

Studying the movements of oceanic migrants has been elusive until the advent of several tracking devices, such as the light-level geolocators. Stable isotope analysis (SIA) offers a complementary approach to infer areas used year-round, but its suitability in oceanic environments remains almost unexplored. To evaluate SIA as a tool for inferring movements of oceanic migrants, we sampled an oceanic seabird, the Bulwer's petrel, Bulweria bulwerii, in four breeding colonies spread along its Atlantic distribution. We first studied the species moulting pattern from 29 corpses collected in the colonies. Secondly, based on this moult knowledge, we selected three feathers from tracked birds to infer their breeding and non-breeding grounds using SIA: the 1st primary (P1), the 8th secondary (S8) and the 6th rectrix (R6) feathers. Birds migrated to two main non-breeding areas, the Central or the South Atlantic Ocean. P1 showed similar isotopic values among petrels from different breeding colonies, suggesting this feather is replaced early in the non-breeding period in a common area used by most birds, the Central Atlantic. S8 and R6 feathers correctly assigned 92% and 81%, respectively, of the birds to their non-breeding areas, suggesting they were replaced late in season, when birds were settled in their main non-breeding grounds. Our results showed that the isotopic baseline levels of the Central and South Atlantic are propagated through the food web until reaching top predators, suggesting these ratios can be used to infer the movement of long-distance migrants among oceanic water masses

Attitudes of Spanish LGBTI+ Adolescents and Emerging Adults. : Cultural and Political Practices Among 16 to 29-year-old Non-cis-hetero People

Never in Spain’s history have sexual minorities enjoyed the current rights. However, LGBTIphobic rhetoric displayed by extreme-right activism threats the gains made. An online survey among LGBTI+ people between 16 and 29 years was conducted. 152 people answered. Results show that Spanish LGBTI+ youth is mostly prone to activism, they were quite informed about legal initiatives and they mostly think that LGBTI+ people continue to suffer discrimination, the group of friends and peers appears to be the safest context and teachers seem to fail on the duty of help LGBTI+ young people. Additionally, LGBTI+ young people often use inclusive language, especially in casual context, and they seek referents in social media, where they follow influencers who openly declared themselves part of the LGBTI+ collective. The study serves as an example of the changing cultural and political practices of non-cis-hetero youth in a society moving fast towards equality but attending the raising of regressive movements