IntCal20 tree rings: an archaeological Swot analysis

We undertook a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis of Northern Hemisphere tree-ring datasets included in IntCal20 in order to evaluate their strategic fit with the demands of archaeological users. Case studies on wiggle-matching single tree rings from timbers in historic buildings and Bayesian modeling of series of results on archaeological samples from Neolithic long barrows in central-southern England exemplify the archaeological implications that arise when using IntCal20. The SWOT analysis provides an opportunity to think strategically about future radiocarbon (14C) calibration so as to maximize the utility of 14C dating in archaeology and safeguard its reputation in the discipline

Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5

One of the major globally relevant systematic biases in previous generations of climate models has been an equatorward bias in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid‐latitude tropospheric eddy driven westerly jet. The far reaching implications of this for Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake and Antarctic land and sea ice are key reasons why addressing this bias is a high priority. It is therefore of primary importance to evaluate the representation of the SH westerly jet in the latest generation of global climate and earth‐system models that comprise the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this paper we assess the representation of major indices of SH extratropical atmospheric circulation in CMIP6 by comparison against both observations and the previous generation of CMIP5 models. Indices assessed are the latitude and speed of the westerly jet, variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and representation of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). These are calculated from the historical forcing simulations of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 for time periods matching available observational and reanalysis datasets. From the 39 CMIP6 models available at the time of writing there is an overall reduction in the equatorward bias of the annual mean westerly jet from 1.9° in CMIP5 to 0.4° in CMIP6 and from a seasonal perspective the reduction is clearest in austral spring and summer. This is accompanied by a halving of the bias of SAM decorrelation timescales compared to CMIP5. However, no such overall improvements are evident for the ASL

Analytic models of plausible gravitational lens potentials

Gravitational lenses on galaxy scales are plausibly modelled as having ellipsoidal symmetry and a universal dark matter density profile, with a Sersic profile to describe the distribution of baryonic matter. Predicting all lensing effects requires knowledge of the total lens potential: in this work we give analytic forms for that of the above hybrid model. Emphasising that complex lens potentials can be constructed from simpler components in linear combination, we provide a recipe for attaining elliptical symmetry in either projected mass or lens potential. We also provide analytic formulae for the lens potentials of Sersic profiles for integer and half-integer index. We then present formulae describing the gravitational lensing effects due to smoothly-truncated universal density profiles in cold dark matter model. For our isolated haloes the density profile falls off as radius to the minus fifth or seventh power beyond the tidal radius, functional forms that allow all orders of lens potential derivatives to be calculated analytically, while ensuring a non-divergent total mass. We show how the observables predicted by this profile differ from that of the original infinite-mass NFW profile. Expressions for the gravitational flexion are highlighted. We show how decreasing the tidal radius allows stripped haloes to be modelled, providing a framework for a fuller investigation of dark matter substructure in galaxies and clusters. Finally we remark on the need for finite mass halo profiles when doing cosmological ray-tracing simulations, and the need for readily-calculable higher order derivatives of the lens potential when studying catastrophes in strong lenses.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, matches published versio

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input – NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980–2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive)

Towards whole genome association genetic scans in barley

In crop plants, the potential of association mapping, with the objective of estimating the position of genes conferring a specific trait or phenotype using linkage disequilibrium (LD) between alleles of genetically mapped markers, has recently become a focus of considerable interest. One major attraction of association genetics is the potential to locate genes responsible for a wide range of traits in a single sample population using pre-existing phenotypic data that has been collected during crop improvement and cultivar registration programs. This study testify to the potential of exploiting whole genome LD-scans to locate genes controlling key biological traits in cultivated barley. We are currently increasing the density of markers, particularly those with a MAF >0.1, by developing two further pilot OPAs, which in due course will be compressed into two commercially available platforms for high throughput low cost genotyping in cultivated barley. In the immediate future these will be used in large association genetic studies in the UK and US involving approximately 4000 barley genotypes with the aim of realising the potential for whole genome association genetic scans in cultivated barley

Modeling the Longitudinal Asymmetry in Sunspot Emergence -- the Role of the Wilson Depression

The distributions of sunspot longitude at first appearance and at disappearance display an east-west asymmetry that results from a reduction in visibility as one moves from disk centre to the limb. To first order, this is explicable in terms of simple geometrical foreshortening. However, the centre-to-limb visibility variation is much larger than that predicted by foreshortening. Sunspot visibility is also known to be affected by the Wilson effect: the apparent dish shape of the sunspot photosphere caused by the temperature-dependent variation of the geometrical position of the tau=1 layer. In this article we investigate the role of the Wilson effect on the sunspot appearance distributions, deducing a mean depth for the umbral tau=1 layer of 500 to 1500 km. This is based on the comparison of observations of sunspot longitude distribution and Monte Carlo simulations of sunspot appearance using different models for spot growth rate, growth time and depth of Wilson depression.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, in press (Solar Physics

Application of neutron imaging to detect and quantify fatigue cracking

Non-destructive imaging techniques provide a unique opportunity to study crack initiation and propagation behaviour in structural materials. To evaluate the applicability of different volumetric imaging techniques, a round bar notched sample of duplex stainless steel was fatigue cracked and studied in situ and ex situ. Neutron and synchrotron X-ray tomography was used along with destructive methods and Bragg edge neutron imaging to evaluate the fatigue crack. Neutron attenuation tomography obtained a three-dimensional image in which the crack was readily identifiable. The neutron tomography, although lower in spatial resolution compared with the X-ray synchrotron tomography and requiring higher acquisition time, is sensitive to the phase chemistry, and has the potential to study engineering size components. Bragg edge neutron transmission imaging allows for the mapping of two-dimensional elastic strains and was used to identify the fatigue crack from the reduction in the strain in the region where the crack propagated. A finite element model of the cracked specimen was used to simulate the average through thickness strain that is measured by the Bragg edge neutron imaging technique. The strains measured in the ferritic phase correspond better with the simulation strains than the strain measured in the austenitic phase. It is concluded that this difference is due to strain partitioning, which is influenced by the strong texture present in the duplex steel

Active Galactic Nuclei at the Crossroads of Astrophysics

Over the last five decades, AGN studies have produced a number of spectacular examples of synergies and multifaceted approaches in astrophysics. The field of AGN research now spans the entire spectral range and covers more than twelve orders of magnitude in the spatial and temporal domains. The next generation of astrophysical facilities will open up new possibilities for AGN studies, especially in the areas of high-resolution and high-fidelity imaging and spectroscopy of nuclear regions in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands. These studies will address in detail a number of critical issues in AGN research such as processes in the immediate vicinity of supermassive black holes, physical conditions of broad-line and narrow-line regions, formation and evolution of accretion disks and relativistic outflows, and the connection between nuclear activity and galaxy evolution.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; review contribution; "Exploring the Cosmic Frontier: Astrophysical Instruments for the 21st Century", ESO Astrophysical Symposia Serie

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page