Tracing the Origins and Evolution of Small Planets using Their Orbital Obliquities

We recommend an intensive effort to survey and understand the obliquity distribution of small close-in extrasolar planets over the coming decade. The orbital obliquities of exoplanets--i.e., the relative orientation between the planetary orbit and the stellar rotation--is a key tracer of how planets form and migrate. While the orbital obliquities of smaller planets are poorly explored today, a new generation of facilities coming online over the next decade will make such observations possible en masse. Transit spectroscopic observations with the extremely large telescopes will enable us to measure the orbital obliquities of planets as small as $\sim2R_{\oplus}$ around a wide variety of stars, opening a window into the orbital properties of the most common types of planets. This effort will directly contribute to understanding the formation and evolution of planetary systems, a key objective of the National Academy of Sciences' Exoplanet Science Strategies report.Comment: Submitted to the Astro2020 call for science white papers. 7 pages, 2 figure

Astro2020 Science White Paper: Toward Finding Earth 2.0: Masses and Orbits of Small Planets with Extreme Radial Velocity Precision

Having discovered that Earth-sized planets are common, we are now embarking on a journey to determine if Earth-like planets are also common. Finding Earth-like planets is one of the most compelling endeavors of the 21st century - leading us toward finally answering the question: Are we alone? To achieve this forward-looking goal, we must determine the masses of the planets; the sizes of the planets, by themselves, are not sufficient for the determination of the bulk and atmospheric compositions. Masses, coupled with the radii, are crucial constraints on the bulk composition and interior structure of the planets and the composition of their atmospheres, including the search for biosignatures. Precision radial velocity is the most viable technique for providing essential mass and orbit information for spectroscopy of other Earths. The development of high quality precision radial velocity instruments coupled to the building of the large telescope facilities like TMT and GMT or space-based platforms like EarthFinder can enable very high spectral resolution observations with extremely precise radial velocities on minute timescales to allow for the modeling and removal of radial velocity jitter. Over the next decade, the legacy of exoplanet astrophysics can be cemented firmly as part of humankind's quest in finding the next Earth - but only if we can measure the masses and orbits of Earth-sized planets in habitable zone orbits around Sun-like stars.Comment: Science White Paper Submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey (35 co-signers in addition to co-authors

On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption

Volcanic eruptions that inject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which can affect weather and transport of chemical species. Here, we conduct simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using the UM-UKCA aerosol-climate model with an explicit representation of the QBO. Eruptions emitting 60 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption) and 15 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption) were initiated at the Equator during two different QBO states. We show that tropical eruptions delay the progression of the QBO phases, with the magnitude of the delay dependent on the initial wind shear in the lower stratosphere and a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. The QBO response in our model is driven by vertical advection of momentum by the stronger tropical upwelling caused by heating due to the increased volcanic sulfate aerosol loading. Direct aerosol-induced warming with subsequent thermal wind adjustment, as proposed by previous studies, is found to only play a secondary role. This interpretation of the response is supported by comparison with a simple dynamical model. The dependence of the magnitude of the response on the initial QBO state results from differences in the QBO secondary circulation. In the easterly shear zone of the QBO, the vertical component of the secondary circulation is upward and reinforces the anomalous upwelling driven by volcanic aerosol heating, whereas in the westerly shear zone the vertical component is downward and opposes the aerosol-induced upwelling. We also find a change in the latitudinal structure of the QBO, with the westerly phase of the QBO strengthening in the hemisphere with the lowest sulfate aerosol burden. Overall, our study suggests that tropical eruptions of Pinatubo magnitude or larger could force changes to the progression of the QBO, with particularly disruptive outcomes for the QBO if the eruption occurs during the easterly QBO shear

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium

Here we investigate how uncertainties in the solar and volcanic forcing records of the past millennium affect the large-scale temperature response using a two-box impulse response model. We use different published solar forcing records and present a new volcanic forcing ensemble that accounts for random uncertainties in eruption dating and sulfur injection amount. The simulations are compared to proxy reconstructions from PAGES 2k and Northern Hemispheric tree ring data. We find that low solar forcing is most consistent with all the proxy reconstructions, even when accounting for volcanic uncertainty. We also find that the residuals are in line with CMIP6 control variability at centennial timescales. Volcanic forcing uncertainty induces a significant spread in the temperature response, especially at periods of peak forcing. For individual eruptions and superposed epoch analyses, volcanic uncertainty can strongly affect the agreement with proxy reconstructions and partly explain known proxy–model discrepancies

Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.

Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions

A Genome-Wide Screen Identifies Genes That Affect Somatic Homolog Pairing in Drosophila

In Drosophila and other Dipterans, homologous chromosomes are in close contact in virtually all nuclei, a phenomenon known as somatic homolog pairing. Although homolog pairing has been recognized for over a century, relatively little is known about its regulation. We performed a genome-wide RNAi-based screen that monitored the X-specific localization of the male-specific lethal (MSL) complex, and we identified 59 candidate genes whose knockdown via RNAi causes a change in the pattern of MSL staining that is consistent with a disruption of X-chromosomal homolog pairing. Using DNA fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), we confirmed that knockdown of 17 of these genes has a dramatic effect on pairing of the 359 bp repeat at the base of the X. Furthermore, dsRNAs targeting Pr-set7, which encodes an H4K20 methyltransferase, cause a modest disruption in somatic homolog pairing. Consistent with our results in cultured cells, a classical mutation in one of the strongest candidate genes, pebble (pbl), causes a decrease in somatic homolog pairing in developing embryos. Interestingly, many of the genes identified by our screen have known roles in diverse cell-cycle events, suggesting an important link between somatic homolog pairing and the choreography of chromosomes during the cell cycle

Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments

The relationship between volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and volcanic radiative forcing is key to quantify volcanic climate impacts. In their fifth assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used one scaling factor between volcanic SAOD and volcanic forcing based on climate model simulations of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which may not be appropriate for all eruptions. Using a large-ensemble of aerosol-chemistry-climate simulations of eruptions with different sulfur dioxide emissions, latitudes, emission altitudes and seasons, we find that the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is on average 20% less than the instantaneous radiative forcing, predominantly due to a positive shortwave cloud adjustment. In our model, the volcanic SAOD-ERF relationship is non-unique and varies widely depending on time since an eruption, eruption latitude and season due to differences in aerosol dispersion and incoming solar radiation. Our revised SAOD-ERF relationships suggest that volcanic forcing has been previously overestimated

Markers of assimilation of problematic experiences in dementia within the LivDem project

© 2015, © The Author(s) 2015. This study aimed to determine whether the Markers of Assimilation of Problematic Experiences in Dementia scale (MAPED) can be used to identify whether the way in which participants talk about dementia changed during the group. All eight sessions of a LivDem group, which were attended by participants were recorded and transcribed. An initial analysis identified 160 extracts, which were then rated using the MAPED system. Inter-rater reliability was 61% and following a resolution meeting, 35 extracts were discarded, leaving 125 extracts with an agreed marker code. All of the participants were identified as producing a speech marker relating to dementia, and these varied between 0 (warding off) to 6 (problem solution). Examples of these markers are provided. The proportion of emergence markers (indicating the initial stages of assimilation) compared to later markers changed significantly between the first four sessions and the final sessions. This difference was still significant even when the markers produced by the most verbal participant, Graham, were excluded. The use of process measures within psychotherapy complements more conventional outcome measures and has both theoretical and clinical implications