Development and internal validation of a diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 at time of admission to hospital.

BACKGROUND: Early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis prior to laboratory testing results is crucial for infection control in hospitals. Models exist predicting COVID-19 diagnosis, but significant concerns exist regarding methodology and generalizability. AIM: To generate the first COVID-19 diagnosis risk score for use at the time of hospital admission using the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) checklist. DESIGN: A multivariable diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 using the TRIPOD checklist applied to a large single-centre retrospective observational study of patients with suspected COVID-19. METHODS: 581 individuals were admitted with suspected COVID-19; the majority had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (420/581, 72.2%). Retrospective collection was performed of electronic clinical records and pathology data. RESULTS: The final multivariable model demonstrated AUC 0.8535 (95% confidence interval 0.8121-0.8950). The final model used six clinical variables that are routinely available in most low and high-resource settings. Using a cut-off of 2, the derived risk score has a sensitivity of 78.1% and specificity of 86.8%. At COVID-19 prevalence of 10% the model has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk score is intended for diagnosis of COVID-19 in individuals admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. The score is the first developed for COVID-19 diagnosis using the TRIPOD checklist. It may be effective as a tool to rule out COVID-19 and function at different pandemic phases of variable COVID-19 prevalence. The simple score could be used by any healthcare worker to support hospital infection control prior to laboratory testing results

Examination of the cut-off scores determined by the Ages and Stages Questionnaire in a population-based sample of 6 month-old Norwegian infants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few population-based samples have previously published performance on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), a recommended screening tool to detect infant developmental delay. The aim of the study was to investigate performance on the ASQ in a population-based sample of 6-month-old infants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this population-based questionnaire study from Oslo, Norway, the 30 item ASQ 6 month Questionnaire (N = 1053) were included, however without the pictograms, and compared to the Norwegian reference sample (N.ref) (N = 169) and to US cut-off values. Exclusion criteria were maternal non-Scandinavian ethnicity, infant age < 5.0 or > 7.0 months (corrected age), twins, and birth weight < 2.5 kg. Cut-off = 2.5 percentile (equivalent to mean minus 2 standard deviations). Pearson's Chi square and Mann-Whitney U were used to compare items and areas, respectively, with N.ref.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The reported ASQ scores were lower on all but one of the 10 significantly different items, and in all areas except Personal social, compared to the N.ref sample. The estimated cut-off values for suspected developmental delay (Communication 25, Gross motor 15, Fine motor 18, Problem solving 25 and Personal social 20) were lower than the recommended American (US) values in all areas, and lower than the Norwegian values in two areas. Scores indicating need for further assessment were reached by 13.8% or 20.5% of the infants (missing items scored according to the US or the Norwegian manual), and by 33.8% or 30.3% of the infants using the recommended US or the Norwegian cut-off values, in this population-based sample. The Fine motor area demonstrated a large variability depending on the different cut-off and scoring possibilities. Both among the items excluding pictograms and the items that do not have pictograms, approximately every third item differed significantly compared to the N.ref sample.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The psychomotor developmental scores were lower than in the reference samples in this study of ASQ 6 month Questionnaire; to our knowledge the first study to be both representative and comparatively large. Approximately every third child with birth weight above 2.5 kg, received scores suggesting further assessment using recommended ASQ cut-off scores.</p

A cardinal role for cathepsin D in co-ordinating the host-mediated apoptosis of macrophages and killing of pneumococci

The bactericidal function of macrophages against pneumococci is enhanced by their apoptotic demise, which is controlled by the anti-apoptotic protein Mcl-1. Here, we show that lysosomal membrane permeabilization (LMP) and cytosolic translocation of activated cathepsin D occur prior to activation of a mitochondrial pathway of macrophage apoptosis. Pharmacological inhibition or knockout of cathepsin D during pneumococcal infection blocked macrophage apoptosis. As a result of cathepsin D activation, Mcl-1 interacted with its ubiquitin ligase Mule and expression declined. Inhibition of cathepsin D had no effect on early bacterial killing but inhibited the late phase of apoptosis-associated killing of pneumococci in vitro. Mice bearing a cathepsin D-/- hematopoietic system demonstrated reduced macrophage apoptosis in vivo, with decreased clearance of pneumococci and enhanced recruitment of neutrophils to control pulmonary infection. These findings establish an unexpected role for a cathepsin D-mediated lysosomal pathway of apoptosis in pulmonary host defense and underscore the importance of apoptosis-associated microbial killing to macrophage function

Percutaneous coronary intervention in asians- are there differences in clinical outcome?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ethnic differences in clinical outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been reported. Data within different Asian subpopulations is scarce. We aim to explore the differences in clinical profile and outcome between Chinese, Malay and Indian Asian patients who undergo PCI for coronary artery disease (CAD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective registry of consecutive patients undergoing PCI from January 2002 to December 2007 at a tertiary care center was analyzed. Primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) of myocardial infarction (MI), repeat revascularization and all-cause death at six months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>7889 patients underwent PCI; 7544 (96%) patients completed follow-up and were included in the analysis (79% males with mean age of 59 years ± 11). There were 5130 (68%) Chinese, 1056 (14%) Malays and 1001 (13.3%) Indian patients. The remaining 357 (4.7%) patients from other minority ethnic groups were excluded from the analysis. The primary end-point occurred in 684 (9.1%) patients at six months. Indians had the highest rates of six month MACE compared to Chinese and Malays (Indians 12% vs. Chinese 8.2% vs. Malays 10.7%; OR 1.55 95%CI 1.24-1.93, p < 0.001). This was contributed by increased rates of MI (Indians 1.9% vs. Chinese 0.9% vs. Malays 1.3%; OR 4.49 95%CI 1.91-10.56 p = 0.001), repeat revascularization (Indians 6.5% vs. Chinese 4.1% vs. Malays 5.1%; OR 1.64 95%CI 1.22-2.21 p = 0.0012) and death (Indians 11.4% vs. Chinese 7.6% vs. Malays 9.9%; OR 1.65 95%CI 1.23-2.20 p = 0.001) amongst Indian patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data indicate that ethnic variations in clinical outcome exist following PCI. In particular, Indian patients have higher six month event rates compared to Chinese and Malays. Future studies are warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms behind these variations.</p

Diagnostic Value of Lumbar Facet Joint Injection: A Prospective Triple Cross-Over Study

The diagnosis “lumbar facet syndrome” is common and often indicates severe lumbar spine surgery procedures. It is doubtful whether a painful facet joint (FJ) can be identified by a single FJ block. The aim of this study was to clarify the validity of a single and placebo controlled bilateral FJ blocks using local anesthetics. A prospective single blinded triple cross-over study was performed. 60 patients (31 f, 29 m, mean age 53.2 yrs (22–73)) with chronic low back pain (mean pain persistance 31 months, 6 months of conservative treatment without success) admitted to a local orthopaedic department for surgical or conservative therapy of chronic LBP, were included in the study. Effect on pain reduction (10 point rating scale) was measured. The 60 subjects were divided into six groups with three defined sequences of fluoroscopically guided bilateral monosegmental lumbar FJ test injections in “oblique needle” technique: verum-(local anaesthetic-), placebo-(sodium chloride-) and sham-injection. Carry-over and periodic effects were evaluated and a descriptive and statistical analysis regarding the effectiveness, difference and equality of the FJ injections and the different responses was performed. The results show a high rate of non-response, which documents the lack of reliable and valid predictors for a positive response towards FJ blocks. There was a high rate of placebo reactions noted, including subjects who previously or later reacted positively to verum injections. Equivalence was shown among verum vs. placebo and partly vs. sham also. With regard to test validity criteria, a single intraarticular FJ block with local anesthetics is not useful to detect the pain-responsible FJ and therefore is no valid and reliable diagostic tool to specify indication of lumbar spine surgery. Comparative FJ blocks with local anesthetics and placebo-controls have to be interpretated carefully also, because they solely give no proper diagnosis on FJ being main pain generator

The Relation Between Cognitive Development and Anxiety Phenomena in Children

We examined the relation between cognitive development and fear, anxiety, and behavioral inhibition in a non-clinical sample of 226 Dutch children aged 4–9 years. To assess cognitive development, children were tested with Piagetian conservation tasks and a Theory-of-Mind (TOM) test. Fears were measured by means of a self-report scale completed by the children, while anxiety symptoms and behavioral inhibition were indexed by rating scales that were filled out by parents. Significant age trends were observed for some anxiety phenomena. For example, younger children displayed higher fear scores, whereas older children exhibited higher levels of generalized anxiety. Most importantly, results of regression analyses (in which we controlled for age) indicated that cognitive development, and in particular TOM ability, made a unique and significant contribution to various domains of behavioral inhibition. In all cases, higher levels of TOM were associated with lower levels of behavioral inhibition. In general, percentages of explained variance were rather small (i.e., <6%), indicating that the role of cognitive development in various anxiety phenomena is limited

Deep-Inelastic Inclusive ep Scattering at Low x and a Determination of alpha_s

A precise measurement of the inclusive deep-inelastic e^+p scattering cross section is reported in the kinematic range 1.5<= Q^2 <=150 GeV^2 and 3*10^(-5)<= x <=0.2. The data were recorded with the H1 detector at HERA in 1996 and 1997, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20 pb^(-1). The double differential cross section, from which the proton structure function F_2(x,Q^2) and the longitudinal structure function F_L(x,Q^2) are extracted, is measured with typically 1% statistical and 3% systematic uncertainties. The measured partial derivative (dF_2(x,Q^2)/dln Q^2)_x is observed to rise continuously towards small x for fixed Q^2. The cross section data are combined with published H1 measurements at high Q^2 for a next-to-leading order DGLAP QCD analysis.The H1 data determine the gluon momentum distribution in the range 3*10^(-4)<= x <=0.1 to within an experimental accuracy of about 3% for Q^2 =20 GeV^2. A fit of the H1 measurements and the mu p data of the BCDMS collaboration allows the strong coupling constant alpha_s and the gluon distribution to be simultaneously determined. A value of alpha _s(M_Z^2)=0.1150+-0.0017 (exp) +0.0009-0.0005 (model) is obtained in NLO, with an additional theoretical uncertainty of about +-0.005, mainly due to the uncertainty of the renormalisation scale.Comment: 68 pages, 24 figures and 18 table

Characterization of a Clp Protease Gene Regulator and the Reaeration Response in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) enters a non-replicating state when exposed to low oxygen tension, a condition the bacillus encounters in granulomas during infection. Determining how mycobacteria enter and maintain this state is a major focus of research. However, from a public health standpoint the importance of latent TB is its ability to reactivate. The mechanism by which mycobacteria return to a replicating state upon re-exposure to favorable conditions is not understood. In this study, we utilized reaeration from a defined hypoxia model to characterize the adaptive response of MTB following a return to favorable growth conditions. Global transcriptional analysis identified the ∼100 gene Reaeration Response, induced relative to both log-phase and hypoxic MTB. This response includes chaperones and proteases, as well as the transcription factor Rv2745c, which we characterize as a Clp protease gene regulator (ClgR) orthologue. During reaeration, genes repressed during hypoxia are also upregulated in a wave of transcription that includes genes crucial to transcription, translation and oxidative phosphorylation and culminates in bacterial replication. In sum, this study defines a new transcriptional response of MTB with potential relevance to disease, and implicates ClgR as a regulator involved in resumption of replication following hypoxia

The impact of patient self assessment of deformity on HRQL in adults with scoliosis

Background: Body image and HRQL are significant issues for patients with scoliosis due to cosmetic deformity, physical and psychological symptoms, and treatment factors. A selective review of scoliosis literature revealed that self report measures of body image and HRQL share unreliable correlations with radiographic measures and clinician recommendations for surgery. However, current body image and HRQL measures do not indicate which aspects of scoliosis deformity are the most distressing for patients. The WRVAS is an instrument designed to evaluate patient self assessment of deformity, and may show some promise in identifying aspects of deformity most troubling to patients. Previous research on adolescents with scoliosis supports the use of the WRVAS as a clinical tool, as the instrument shares strong correlations with radiographic measures and quality of life instruments. There has been limited use of this instrument on adult populations. Methods: The WRVAS and the SF-36v2, a HRQL measure, were administered to 71 adults with scoliosis, along with a form to report age and gender. Preliminary validation analyses were performed on the WRVAS (floor and ceiling effects, internal consistency and collinearity, correlations with the SF-36v2, and multiple regression with the WRVAS total score as the predictor, and SF-36v2 scores as outcomes). Results: The psychometric properties of the WRVAS were acceptable. Older participants perceived their deformities as more severe than younger participants. More severe deformities were associated with lower scores on the Physical Component Summary Score of the SF-36v2. Total WRVAS score also predicted Physical Component Summary scores. Conclusion: The results of the current study indicate that the WRVAS is a reliable tool to use with adult patients, and that patient self assessment of deformity shared a relationship with physical rather than psychological aspects of HRQL. The current and previous studies concur that revision of the WRVAS is necessary to more accurately represent the diversity of scoliosis deformities. Ability to identify disturbing aspects of deformity could potentially be improved by evaluating each WRVAS items against indicators of pain, physical/psychosocial function, and self image from previous measures such as the SRS, SF-36 or BSSQ-deformity

Stage III and oestrogen receptor negativity are associated with poor prognosis after adjuvant high-dose therapy in high-risk breast cancer

We report on the efficacy and toxicity of a sequential high-dose therapy with peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) support in 85 patients with high-risk stage II/III breast cancer. There were 71 patients with more than nine tumour-positive axillary lymph nodes. An induction therapy of two cycles of ifosfamide (total dose, 7.5 g m−2) and epirubicin (120 mg m−2) was given, and PBSC were harvested during G-CSF-supported leucocyte recovery following the second cycle. The PBSC-supported high-dose chemotherapy consisted of two cycles of ifosfamide (total dose, 12 000 mg m−2), carboplatin (900 mg m−2) and epirubicin (180 mg m−2). Patients were autografted with a median number of 3.7 × 106 CD34+ cells kg−1 (range, 1.9–26.5 × 106) resulting in haematological reconstitution within approximately 2 weeks following high-dose therapy. The toxicity was moderate in general, and there was no treatment-related toxic death. Twenty-one patients relapsed between 3 and 30 months following the last cycle of high-dose therapy (median, 11 months). The probability of disease-free and overall survival at 4 years were 60% and 83%, respectively. According to a multivariate analysis, patients with stage II disease had a significantly better probability of disease-free survival (74%) in comparison to patients with stage III disease (36%). The probability of disease-free survival was also significantly better for patients with oestrogen receptor-positive tumours (70%) compared to patients with receptor-negative ones (40%). Bone marrow samples collected from 52 patients after high-dose therapy were examined to evaluate the prognostic relevance of isolated tumour cells. The proportion of patients presenting with tumour cell-positive samples did not change in comparison to that observed before high-dose therapy (65% vs 71%), but a decrease in the incidence and concentration of tumour cells was observed over time after high-dose therapy. This finding was true for patients with relapse and for those in remission, which argues against a prognostic significance of isolated tumour cells in bone marrow. In conclusion, sequential high-dose chemotherapy with PBSC support can be safely administered to patients with high-risk stage II/III breast cancer. Further intensification of the therapy, including the addition of non-cross resistant drugs or immunological approaches such as the use of antibodies against HER-2/NEU, may be envisaged for patients with stage III disease and hormone receptor-negative tumours. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig