Dynamics of an Idealized Fluid Model for Investigating Convective-scale Data Assimilation

An idealized fluid model of convective-scale numerical weather prediction, intended for use in inexpensive data assimilation experiments, is described here and its distinctive dynamics are investigated. The model modifies the rotating shallow water equations to include some simplified dynamics of cumulus convection and associated precipitation, extending and improving the model of Würsch and Craig. Changes to this original model are the removal of ad hoc diffusive terms and the addition of Coriolis rotation terms, leading to a so-called 1.5-dimensional model. Despite the non-trivial modifications to the parent equations, it is shown that this shallow water type model remains hyperbolic in character and can be integrated accordingly using a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for nonconservative hyperbolic systems of partial differential equations. Combined with methods to ensure well-balancedness and non-negativity, the resulting numerical solver is novel, efficient and robust. Classical numerical experiments in the shallow water theory, such as the Rossby geostrophic adjustment and flow over topography, are reproduced for the standard shallow water model and used to highlight the modified dynamics of the new model. In particular, it exhibits important aspects of convective-scale dynamics relating to the disruption of large-scale balance and is able to simulate other features related to convecting and precipitating weather systems. Our analysis here and preliminary results suggest that the model is well suited for efficiently and robustly investigating data assimilation schemes in an idealized ‘convective-scale’ forecast assimilation framework

Isolation, cohesion and contingent network effects: the case of school attachment and engagement

Isolation and cohesion are two key network features, often used to predict outcomes like mental health and deviance. More cohesive settings tend to have better outcomes, while isolates tend to fare worse than their more integrated peers. A common assumption of past work is that the effect of cohesion is universal, so that all actors get the same benefits of being in a socially cohesive environment. Here, we suggest that the effect of cohesion is universal only for specific types of outcomes. For other outcomes, experiencing the benefits of cohesion depends on an individual’s position in the network, such as whether or not an individual has any social ties. Network processes thus operate at both the individual and contextual level, and we employ hierarchical linear models to analyze these jointly to arrive at a full picture of how networks matter. We explore these ideas using the case of adolescents in schools (using Add Health data), focusing on the effect of isolation and cohesion on two outcomes, school attachment and academic engagement. We find that cohesion has a uniform effect in the case of engagement but not attachment. Only non-isolates experience stronger feelings of attachment as cohesion increases, while all students, both isolates and non-isolates, are more strongly engaged in high cohesion settings. Overall, the results show the importance of taking a systematic, multi-level approach, with important implications for studies of health and deviance

Altered operant responding for motor reinforcement and the determination of benchmark doses following perinatal exposure to low-level 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin.

Pregnant Holtzman rats were exposed to a single oral dose of 0, 20, 60, or 180 ng/kg 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) on the 18th day of gestation. Their adult female offspring were trained to respond on a lever for brief opportunities to run in specially designed running wheels. Once they had begun responding on a fixed-ratio 1 (FR1) schedule of reinforcement, the fixed-ratio requirement for lever pressing was increased at five-session intervals to values of FR2, FR5, FR10, FR20, and FR30. We examined vaginal cytology after each behavior session to track estrous cyclicity. Under each of the FR values, perinatal TCDD exposure produced a significant dose-related reduction in the number of earned opportunities to run, the lever response rate, and the total number of revolutions in the wheel. Estrous cyclicity was not affected. Because of the consistent dose-response relationship at all FR values, we used the behavioral data to calculate benchmark doses based on displacements from modeled zero-dose performance of 1% (ED(01)) and 10% (ED(10)), as determined by a quadratic fit to the dose-response function. The mean ED(10) benchmark dose for earned run opportunities was 10.13 ng/kg with a 95% lower bound of 5.77 ng/kg. The corresponding ED(01) was 0.98 ng/kg with a 95% lower bound of 0.83 ng/kg. The mean ED(10) for total wheel revolutions was calculated as 7.32 ng/kg with a 95% lower bound of 5.41 ng/kg. The corresponding ED(01) was 0.71 ng/kg with a 95% lower bound of 0.60. These values should be viewed from the perspective of current human body burdens, whose average value, based on TCDD toxic equivalents, has been calculated as 13 ng/kg

Correlations between selected parameters of nasal cavity in neonates and young infants — computed tomography study

  Background: Correlations between selected metric parameters of the nasal cavity and nasopharynx in children without atresia may be useful for anticipating probable dimensions of this region in living subjects, in terms of changes with age. Materials and methods: One hundred and eighty children, age range 0–3 years, were divided into five age groups, and measurements of 18 distances between structures of nasal cavity and nosopharynx were performed on computed tomography scans. Correlation coefficients and relations between parameters have been determined. Results: Our study confirmed the existence of statistically significant correlations between linear dimensions within nasal cavity in children. The analysis demon­strated that for the values of following indexes: nasal septum length/piriform aperture width, and maximum length of the nasal septum/posterior nares width no statistically significant differences have been noted between age groups of children. All correlations have been positive. No statistically significant differences have been noted between the maximum width of the vomer and osseous parameters measured, both in the anterior and posterior part of the nasal cavity, and nasal septum length. Conclusions: The size of posterior nares changed with age in children by a constant value. So far, no such an analysis has been carried out assessing potential correlations between linear dimensions for the entire nasal cavity, nasopharynx, length of the nasal septum in children, as well as proportions of individual linear dimensions of the anatomical structures analysed, in various age groups

An anti-establishment backlash that shook up the party system? The October 2015 Polish parliamentary election

The October 2015 Polish parliamentary election saw the stunning victory of the right-wing opposition Law and Justice party which became the first in post-communist Poland to secure an outright parliamentary majority, and equally comprehensive defeat of the incumbent centrist Civic Platform. In addition to the fact that the outgoing ruling party could no longer rely on invoking the ‘politics of fear’, the main factor accounting for this was widespread disillusionment with the country’s ruling elite. The election also saw the broad ‘post-transition’ socio-demographic and ideological divide and Law and Justice-Civic Platform duopoly continuing to dominate party competition. However, there were some indications of greater party system fluidity and question marks over who would emerge as the main representative of the anti-Law and Justice side of this divide

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

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Screening of antioxidant properties of the apple juice using the front-face synchronous fluorescence and chemometrics

Fluorescence spectroscopy is gaining increasing attention in food analysis due to its higher sensitivity and selectivity as compared to other spectroscopic techniques. Synchronous scanning fluorescence technique is particularly useful in studies of multi-fluorophoric food samples, providing a further improvement of selectivity by reduction in the spectral overlapping and suppressing light-scattering interferences. Presently, we study the feasibility of the prediction of the total phenolics, flavonoids, and antioxidant capacity using front-face synchronous fluorescence spectra of apple juices. Commercial apple juices from different product ranges were studied. Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the unfolded synchronous fluorescence spectra was used to compare the fluorescence of the entire sample set. The regression analysis was performed using partial least squares (PLS1 and PLS2) methods on the unfolded total synchronous and on the single-offset synchronous fluorescence spectra. The best calibration models for all of the studied parameters were obtained using the PLS1 method for the single-offset synchronous spectra. The models for the prediction of the total flavonoid content had the best performance; the optimal model was obtained for the analysis of the synchronous fluorescence spectra at Delta lambda = 110 nm (R (2) = 0.870, residual predictive deviation (RPD) = 2.7). The optimal calibration models for the prediction of the total phenolic content (Delta lambda = 80 nm, R (2) = 0.766, RPD = 2.0) and the total antioxidant capacity (Delta lambda = 70 nm, R (2) = 0.787, RPD = 2.1) had only an approximate predictive ability. These results demonstrate that synchronous fluorescence could be a useful tool in fast semi-quantitative screening for the antioxidant properties of the apple juices.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio