On critical pilot tasks

Critical pilot performance in decision making proces

X-ray vs. Optical Variations in the Seyfert 1 Nucleus NGC 3516: A Puzzling Disconnectedness

We present optical broadband (B and R) observations of the Seyfert 1 nucleus NGC 3516, obtained at Wise Observatory from March 1997 to March 2002, contemporaneously with X-ray 2-10 keV measurements with RXTE. With these data we increase the temporal baseline of this dataset to 5 years, more than triple to the coverage we have previously presented for this object. Analysis of the new data does not confirm the 100-day lag of X-ray behind optical variations, tentatively reported in our previous work. Indeed, excluding the first year's data, which drive the previous result, there is no significant correlation at any lag between the X-ray and optical bands. We also find no correlation at any lag between optical flux and various X-ray hardness ratios. We conclude that the close relation observed between the bands during the first year of our program was either a fluke, or perhaps the result of the exceptionally bright state of NGC 3516 in 1997, to which it has yet to return. Reviewing the results of published joint X-ray and UV/optical Seyfert monitoring programs, we speculate that there are at least two components or mechanisms contributing to the X-ray continuum emission up to 10 keV: a soft component that is correlated with UV/optical variations on timescales >1 day, and whose presence can be detected when the source is observed at low enough energies (about 1 keV), is unabsorbed, or is in a sufficiently bright phase; and a hard component whose variations are uncorrelated with the UV/optical.Comment: 9 pages, AJ, in pres

Multiscaled Cross-Correlation Dynamics in Financial Time-Series

The cross correlation matrix between equities comprises multiple interactions between traders with varying strategies and time horizons. In this paper, we use the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform to calculate correlation matrices over different timescales and then explore the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. The dynamics of the eigenvalue spectrum at different times and scales provides insight into the interactions between the numerous constituents involved. Eigenvalue dynamics are examined for both medium and high-frequency equity returns, with the associated correlation structure shown to be dependent on both time and scale. Additionally, the Epps effect is established using this multivariate method and analyzed at longer scales than previously studied. A partition of the eigenvalue time-series demonstrates, at very short scales, the emergence of negative returns when the largest eigenvalue is greatest. Finally, a portfolio optimization shows the importance of timescale information in the context of risk management

Long-Term X-ray Spectral Variability in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert 1 galaxies in order to study their broadband spectral variability and Fe K alpha variability characteristics on time scales of days to years. Variability in the Fe K alpha line is not detected in some objects but is present in others, e.g., in NGC 3516, NGC 4151 and NGC 5548 there are systematic decreases in line flux by factors of ~2-5 over 3-4 years. The Fe K alpha line varies less strongly than the broadband continuum, but, like the continuum, exhibits stronger variability towards longer time scales. Relatively less model-dependent broadband fractional variability amplitude (Fvar) spectra also show weaker line variability compared to the continuum variability. Comparable systematic long-term decreases in the line and continuum are present in NGC 5548. Overall, however, there is no evidence for correlated variability between the line and continuum, severely challenging models in which the line tracks continuum variations modified only by a light-travel time delay. Local effects such as the formation of an ionized skin at the site of line emission may be relevant. The spectral fitting and Fvar spectra both support spectral softening as continuum flux increases.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 29 page

Investigating source confusion in PMN J1603−-4904

PMN J1603$-$4904 is a likely member of the rare class of $\gamma$-ray emitting young radio galaxies. Only one other source, PKS 1718$-$649, has been confirmed so far. These objects, which may transition into larger radio galaxies, are a stepping stone to understanding AGN evolution. It is not completely clear how these young galaxies, seen edge-on, can produce high-energy $\gamma$-rays. PMN J1603$-$4904 has been detected by TANAMI Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations and has been followed-up with multiwavelength observations. A Fermi/LAT $\gamma$-ray source has been associated with it in the LAT catalogs. We have obtained Chandra observations of the source in order to consider the possibility of source confusion, due to the relatively large positional uncertainty of Fermi/LAT. The goal was to investigate the possibility of other X-ray bright sources in the vicinity of PMN J1603$-$4904 that could be counterparts to the $\gamma$-ray emission. With Chandra/ACIS, we find no other sources in the uncertainty ellipse of Fermi/LAT data, which includes an improved localization analysis of 8 years of data. We further study the X-ray fluxes and spectra. We conclude that PMN J1603$-$4904 is indeed the second confirmed $\gamma$-ray bright young radio galaxy.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Random Matrix Theory Analysis of Cross Correlations in Financial Markets

We confirm universal behaviors such as eigenvalue distribution and spacings predicted by Random Matrix Theory (RMT) for the cross correlation matrix of the daily stock prices of Tokyo Stock Exchange from 1993 to 2001, which have been reported for New York Stock Exchange in previous studies. It is shown that the random part of the eigenvalue distribution of the cross correlation matrix is stable even when deterministic correlations are present. Some deviations in the small eigenvalue statistics outside the bounds of the universality class of RMT are not completely explained with the deterministic correlations as proposed in previous studies. We study the effect of randomness on deterministic correlations and find that randomness causes a repulsion between deterministic eigenvalues and the random eigenvalues. This is interpreted as a reminiscent of ``level repulsion'' in RMT and explains some deviations from the previous studies observed in the market data. We also study correlated groups of issues in these markets and propose a refined method to identify correlated groups based on RMT. Some characteristic differences between properties of Tokyo Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange are found.Comment: RevTex, 17 pages, 8 figure

The Suzaku Observation of NGC 3516: Complex Absorption and the Broad and Narrow Fe K Lines

We present results from a 150 ksec Suzaku observation of the Seyfert 1.5 NGC 3516 in October 2005. The source was in a relatively highly absorbed state. Our best-fit model is consistent with the presence of a low-ionization absorber which has a column density near 5 * 10^{22} cm^{-2} and covers most of the X-ray continuum source (covering fraction 96-100%). A high-ionization absorbing component, which yields a narrow absorption feature consistent with Fe K XXVI, is confirmed. A relativistically broadened Fe K alpha line is required in all fits, even after the complex absorption is taken into account; an additional partial-covering component is an inadequate substitute for the continuum curvature associated with the broad Fe line. A narrow Fe K alpha emission line has a velocity width consistent with the Broad Line Region. The low-ionization absorber may be responsible for producing the narrow Fe K alpha line, though a contribution from additional material out of the line of sight is possible. We include in our model soft band emission lines from He- and H-like ions of N, O, Ne and Mg, consistent with photo-ionization, though a small contribution from collisionally-ionized emission is possible.Comment: Accepted for publication in PASJ (Suzaku second special issue). 36 pages, 10 figure

Theory of Cylindrical Tubules and Helical Ribbons of Chiral Lipid Membranes

We present a general theory for the equilibrium structure of cylindrical tubules and helical ribbons of chiral lipid membranes. This theory is based on a continuum elastic free energy that permits variations in the direction of molecular tilt and in the curvature of the membrane. The theory shows that the formation of tubules and helical ribbons is driven by the chirality of the membrane. Tubules have a first-order transition from a uniform state to a helically modulated state, with periodic stripes in the tilt direction and ripples in the curvature. Helical ribbons can be stable structures, or they can be unstable intermediate states in the formation of tubules.Comment: 43 pages, including 12 postscript figures, uses REVTeX 3.0 and epsf.st

Evolutionary multi-stage financial scenario tree generation

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations (represented as scenario trees) have been suggested in the literature. In this paper, a new evolutionary algorithm to create scenario trees for multi-stage financial optimization models will be presented. Numerical results and implementation details conclude the paper

Relativistic Iron K Emission and absorption in the Seyfert 1.9 galaxy MCG-5-23-16

We present the results of the simultaneous deep XMM and Chandra observations of the bright Seyfert 1.9 galaxy MCG-5-23-16, which is thought to have one of the best known examples of a relativistically broadened iron K-alpha line. The time averaged spectral analysis shows that the iron K-shell complex is best modeled with an unresolved narrow emission component (FWHM < 5000 km/s, EW ~ 60 eV) plus a broad component. This latter component has FWHM ~ 44000 km/s and EW ~ 50 eV. Its profile is well described by an emission line originating from an accretion disk viewed with an inclination angle ~ 40^\circ and with the emission arising from within a few tens of gravitational radii of the central black hole. The time-resolved spectral analysis of the XMM EPIC-pn spectrum shows that both the narrow and broad components of the Fe K emission line appear to be constant in time within the errors. We detected a narrow sporadic absorption line at 7.7 keV which appears to be variable on a time-scale of 20 ksec. If associated with Fe XXVI Ly-alpha this absorption is indicative of a possibly variable, high ionization, high velocity outflow. The variability of this absorption feature appears to rule out a local (z=0) origin. The analysis of the XMM RGS spectrum reveals that the soft X-ray emission of MCG-5-23-16 is likely dominated by several emission lines superimposed on an unabsorbed scattered power-law continuum. The lack of strong Fe L shell emission together with the detection of a strong forbidden line in the O VII triplet is consistent with a scenario where the soft X-ray emission lines are produced in a plasma photoionized by the nuclear emission.Comment: 45 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Ap