Jet fuel price risk management using futures contracts : a study of hedging strategies for airlines

Denne oppgaven undersøker risikostyring av jetfuelprisen gjennom hedgingstrategier med WTI- og fyringsoljefutures som sikringsinstrument. Analysen tar sikte på å estimere minimum varians hedgingrater for ulike hedgingstrategier. Formålet er å finne hedgingstrategier som gir høyest hedgingeffektivitet, og dermed gir størst reduksjon i jetfuelprisrisiko. Første del av analysen vil estimere hedgingrater med utgangspunkt i flere analysemetoder under en klassisk lineær regresjonsmodell (CLRM). Hedgingstrategiene som undersøkes, estimerer hedgingrater både med en og kombinasjoner av to futureskontrakter som forklarende variabel. Videre estimeres hedgingrater med hensyn på basis i underliggende futureskontrakt, før hedgingrater estimeres med hensyn på vintersesong for fyringsoljekontrakter. Den siste analysemetoden under CLRM tar hensyn til ulikheter i historisk prisvolatilitet på jetfuel. Andre del av analysen undersøker kointegrasjon mellom jetfuel, WTI og fyringsolje. En «Vektor Error Correction Model (VECM)» benyttes så for å estimere hedgingrater. Flere av hedgingstrategiene fra CLRM, testes her under VECM-rammeverket for å undersøke om den sistnevnte tilnærmingen estimere hedgingrater som gir bedre hedgingeffektivitet. Estimatene i oppgaven beregnes fra perioden januar 2000 til desember 2010, med etterfølgende out-of-sample-analyse av hedgingratene i perioden januar 2011 til desember 2012. Hovedfunnene fra den empiriske analysen viser at fyringsoljekontrakter er bedre egnet til sikring av jetfuelprisen enn WTI-kontrakter. Kombinasjoner av fyringsoljekontrakter gir større reduksjon i risiko, enn sikring i kun én fyringsoljekontrakt. VECM estimerer hedgingrater som gir bedre hedgingeffektivitet for majoriteten av sikringsstrategiene som undersøkes med ovennevnte rammeverket, sett i forhold til under CLRM. This thesis investigates jet fuel price risk management trough hedging strategies using WTI- and heating oil futures as hedging instruments. The analysis aims to estimate the minimum variance hedge ratio for different hedging strategies. The objective is to find hedging strategies that provide the highest hedging efficiency, thus giving the greatest reduction in jet fuel price risk. The first part of this investigation estimates hedging ratios of different analytical methods under a «classic linear regression model (CLRM)» framework. Among the strategies being investigated, hedging ratios with one futures contract as the explanatory variable will be estimated, as well as one which consists of combination of two futures contracts. Furthermore, I test strategies with respect to the basis of the underlying futures contract, and one in which different hedging ratios for the heating oil futures in regards to the winter season are tested. The last analytical method examines hedging strategies with respect to jet fuel price volatility trends. The second part of this investigation tests for co-integration among jet fuel and futures prices, and result allows a «Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)» to estimate hedging ratios. Several hedging strategies from the CLRM framework are then being tested under a VECM framework to determine whether the latter approach improves hedging efficiency. In-sample estimates throughout this investigation are calculated between January 2000 and December 2010, while the out-of-sample-results are collected from January 2011 to December 2012. The main findings of this study are firstly that heating oil is more suitable for hedging jet fuel price than WTI. Secondly, that a combination of heating oil contracts improves hedging efficiency compared to hedging in one heating oil contract. And in conclusion, that the majority of the hedging strategies have estimated ratios generating better hedging efficiency through VECM than with CLRM

Prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in type 2 diabetics

Background: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus has emerged as a common endocrine disorder in india. Thyroid dysfunction may complicate glycaemic control of diabetic patients. For better management of diabetes, it is necessary to detect and treat thyroid dysfunction in these patients.Methods: This was an observational study conducted at SMS Hospital Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, between March 2016 to November 2017. Total 100 patients were included out of which 50 were Diabetic patients and 50 were age and sex matched nondiabetic controls reported in outpatient department of SMS Hospital, Jaipur. Patients of type 1 Diabetes, previously known case of thyroid disorder, patients having endocrine disorder or autoimmune disorder other than Diabetes, critically ill patients and pregnant females were excluded from study. Serum Fasting Blood Sugar, Free T3, Free T4, TSH were measured in all study subjects and results were analysed statistically to find out if there is any difference in prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in Diabetic patients and non-diabetic controls.Results: Thyroid dysfunction was present in 16 (32%) of 50 type 2 diabetics and 3 (6%) of 50 nondiabetic controls.  The prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in type 2 diabetic females and males was 43.3% and 15% respectively. Mean fasting blood sugar was higher in diabetic patients having thyroid dysfunction (209.12 mg/dl) as compared to euthyroid diabetic subjects (173.58 mg/dl). Twelve (75%), out of 16 study subjects with thyroid dysfunction have secondary hypothyroidism. Three (18.75%) of them have mild (sub-clinical) hypothyroidism. One person (6.25%) has subclinical hyperthyroidism.Conclusions: Prevalence of thyroid dysfunction is higher in type 2 diabetic patients as compared to nondiabetic. Better glycaemic control is observed in euthyroid diabetic patients as compared to diabetic patients having thyroid dysfunction

Echocardiographic evaluation of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background: Diastolic dysfunction in patients suffering from diabetes mellitus represents an earlier stage in the natural history of cardiomyopathy. This study was done to assess the left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in recently diagnosed (<5yr) Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus by Echocardiography and also to determine association of glycemic status (by HBA1c levels) with left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD).Methods: An observational descriptive study involving 100 diabetic patients, taken on first come first serve basis after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria. In all the subjects, other than routine investigations, HbA1c was estimated and echocardiography was done to evaluate LVDD.Results: Mean value of HbA1c in the study was 8.31+ 1.408 %. 63 out of 100 subjects had LVDD. There was significant positive correlation between HbA1c and LVDD (p value <0.001). As HbA1c increased, severity of LVDD increased. In this study, as BMI increased, HbA1c and LVDD increased & both findings were statistically significant (p value =0.001).Conclusion: Our study indicates that myocardial damage in patients with diabetes affects diastolic function before systolic function &higher HbA1C level is strongly associated with presence of LVDD. Patients should be advised strict control of diabetes in order to reduce the risk for developing LVDD which is a precursor for more advanced disease.Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, Diastolic dysfunction, BMI, HbA1

Neuropathic pruritus: an early indicator of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders

Neuromyelitis optica is a relapsing, inflammatory astrocytopathic disorder, affecting predominantly the optic nerves and spinal cord. It is associated with antiaquaporin-4 immunoglobulin G (AQP4-IgG) in up to 70% of patients. Spinal cord involvement typically presents as a longitudinally-extensive transverse myelitis, with associated sensorimotor and sphincter dysfunction. Sensory symptoms such as numbness, dysaesthesia, pain and tonic spasms are common. Here, we present a case of a 25years old female who came to the medicine OPD, with the chief complaints of intense itching over face and forehead, which was later on progressed to quadriparesis after 3 weeks. This case highlights neuropathic pruritus as an under-recognised early feature of neuromyelitis optica

Risikostyring av jetfuelprisen med futureskontrakter : en studie av hedgingstrategier for flyselskaper

Denne oppgaven undersøker risikostyring av jetfuelprisen gjennom hedgingstrategier med WTI- og fyringsoljefutures som sikringsinstrument. Analysen tar sikte på å estimere minimum varians hedgingrater for ulike hedgingstrategier. Formålet er å finne hedgingstrategier som gir høyest hedgingeffektivitet, og dermed gir størst reduksjon i jetfuelprisrisiko. Første del av analysen vil estimere hedgingrater med utgangspunkt i flere analysemetoder under en klassisk lineær regresjonsmodell (CLRM). Hedgingstrategiene som undersøkes, estimerer hedgingrater både med en og kombinasjoner av to futureskontrakter som forklarende variabel. Videre estimeres hedgingrater med hensyn på basis i underliggende futureskontrakt, før hedgingrater estimeres med hensyn på vintersesong for fyringsoljekontrakter. Den siste analysemetoden under CLRM tar hensyn til ulikheter i historisk prisvolatilitet på jetfuel. Andre del av analysen undersøker kointegrasjon mellom jetfuel, WTI og fyringsolje. En «Vektor Error Correction Model (VECM)» benyttes så for å estimere hedgingrater. Flere av hedgingstrategiene fra CLRM, testes her under VECM-rammeverket for å undersøke om den sistnevnte tilnærmingen estimere hedgingrater som gir bedre hedgingeffektivitet. Estimatene i oppgaven beregnes fra perioden januar 2000 til desember 2010, med etterfølgende out-of-sample-analyse av hedgingratene i perioden januar 2011 til desember 2012. Hovedfunnene fra den empiriske analysen viser at fyringsoljekontrakter er bedre egnet til sikring av jetfuelprisen enn WTI-kontrakter. Kombinasjoner av fyringsoljekontrakter gir større reduksjon i risiko, enn sikring i kun én fyringsoljekontrakt. VECM estimerer hedgingrater som gir bedre hedgingeffektivitet for majoriteten av sikringsstrategiene som undersøkes med ovennevnte rammeverket, sett i forhold til under CLRM. This thesis investigates jet fuel price risk management trough hedging strategies using WTI- and heating oil futures as hedging instruments. The analysis aims to estimate the minimum variance hedge ratio for different hedging strategies. The objective is to find hedging strategies that provide the highest hedging efficiency, thus giving the greatest reduction in jet fuel price risk. The first part of this investigation estimates hedging ratios of different analytical methods under a «classic linear regression model (CLRM)» framework. Among the strategies being investigated, hedging ratios with one futures contract as the explanatory variable will be estimated, as well as one which consists of combination of two futures contracts. Furthermore, I test strategies with respect to the basis of the underlying futures contract, and one in which different hedging ratios for the heating oil futures in regards to the winter season are tested. The last analytical method examines hedging strategies with respect to jet fuel price volatility trends. The second part of this investigation tests for co-integration among jet fuel and futures prices, and result allows a «Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)» to estimate hedging ratios. Several hedging strategies from the CLRM framework are then being tested under a VECM framework to determine whether the latter approach improves hedging efficiency. In-sample estimates throughout this investigation are calculated between January 2000 and December 2010, while the out-of-sample-results are collected from January 2011 to December 2012. The main findings of this study are firstly that heating oil is more suitable for hedging jet fuel price than WTI. Secondly, that a combination of heating oil contracts improves hedging efficiency compared to hedging in one heating oil contract. And in conclusion, that the majority of the hedging strategies have estimated ratios generating better hedging efficiency through VECM than with CLRM

Echocardiographic evaluation of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background: Diastolic dysfunction in patients suffering from diabetes mellitus represents an earlier stage in the natural history of cardiomyopathy. This study was done to assess the left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in recently diagnosed (&lt;5yr) Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus by Echocardiography and also to determine association of glycemic status (by HBA1c levels) with left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD).Methods: An observational descriptive study involving 100 diabetic patients, taken on first come first serve basis after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria. In all the subjects, other than routine investigations, HbA1c was estimated and echocardiography was done to evaluate LVDD.Results: Mean value of HbA1c in the study was 8.31+ 1.408 %. 63 out of 100 subjects had LVDD. There was significant positive correlation between HbA1c and LVDD (p value &lt;0.001). As HbA1c increased, severity of LVDD increased. In this study, as BMI increased, HbA1c and LVDD increased &amp; both findings were statistically significant (p value =0.001).Conclusion: Our study indicates that myocardial damage in patients with diabetes affects diastolic function before systolic function &amp;higher HbA1C level is strongly associated with presence of LVDD. Patients should be advised strict control of diabetes in order to reduce the risk for developing LVDD which is a precursor for more advanced disease.Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, Diastolic dysfunction, BMI, HbA1