Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico

The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico. The authors focus on three models that have some theoretical foundations and that can therefore help explain the causes of inflation as well as be used for forecasting purposes: a mark-up model, a money-gap model, and a Phillips curve. The authors' empirical results suggest that the evolution of the exchange rate remains a very important factor for forecasting inflation in Mexico. Indeed, in the best-performing model, the mark-up model, the exchange rate plays the most significant role. The Phillips curve explains and forecasts inflation well when using actual values for the explanatory variables, but does not perform well when using forecasted values for the explanatory variables. The money-gap model does not appear to be useful in its current form, because it is unable to beat even a simple AR1.Inflation and prices; International topics

The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds

Over the past year and a half, authors Andy Haldane of the Bank of England and Mark Kruger of the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties in a way that deals with the crisis and preserves the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. It attempts to be clear about the respective roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors. A central element in shaping private sector expectations is knowledge that the official sector will behave predictably. Constraints on lending by the International Monetary Fund are a key step in that direction. They ensure that private sector involvement is a crucial part of crisis resolution, and they help encourage debtors and creditors to seek co-operative solutions to a crisis. Characterized by constraints, clarity, and orderliness, the framework has the potential to reduce the incidence and cost of financial crises.

The supporting-cell antigen: a receptor-like protein tyrosine phosphatase expressed in the sensory epithelia of the inner ear

After noise- or drug-induced hair-cell loss, the sensory epithelia of the avian inner ear can regenerate new hair cells. Few molecular markers are available for the supporting-cell precursors of the hair cells that regenerate, and little is known about the signaling mechanisms underlying this regenerative response. Hybridoma methodology was used to obtain a monoclonal antibody (mAb) that stains the apical surface of supporting cells in the sensory epithelia of the inner ear. The mAb recognizes the supporting-cell antigen (SCA), a protein that is also found on the apical surfaces of retinal Müller cells, renal tubule cells, and intestinal brush border cells. Expression screening and molecular cloning reveal that the SCA is a novel receptor-like protein tyrosine phosphatase (RPTP), sharing similarity with human density-enhanced phosphatase, an RPTP thought to have a role in the density-dependent arrest of cell growth. In response to hair-cell damage induced by noise in vivo or hair-cell loss caused by ototoxic drug treatment in vitro, some supporting cells show a dramatic decrease in SCA expression levels on their apical surface. This decrease occurs before supporting cells are known to first enter S-phase after trauma, indicating that it may be a primary rather than a secondary response to injury. These results indicate that the SCA is a signaling molecule that may influence the potential of nonsensory supporting cells to either proliferate or differentiate into hair cell

Acute fluid shifts influence the assessment of serum vitamin D status in critically ill patients

Recent reports have highlighted the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and suggested an association with excess mortality in critically ill patients. Serum vitamin D concentrations in these studies were measured following resuscitation. It is unclear whether aggressive fluid resuscitation independently influences serum vitamin D.Nineteen patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass were studied. Serum 25(OH)D(3), 1α,25(OH)(2)D(3), parathyroid hormone, C-reactive protein (CRP), and ionised calcium were measured at five defined timepoints: T1 - baseline, T2 - 5 minutes after onset of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) (time of maximal fluid effect), T3 - on return to the intensive care unit, T4 - 24 hrs after surgery and T5 - 5 days after surgery. Linear mixed models were used to compare measures at T2-T5 with baseline measures.Acute fluid loading resulted in a 35% reduction in 25(OH)D(3) (59 ± 16 to 38 ± 14 nmol/L, P < 0.0001) and a 45% reduction in 1α,25(OH)(2)D(3) (99 ± 40 to 54 ± 22 pmol/L P < 0.0001) and i(Ca) (P < 0.01), with elevation in parathyroid hormone (P < 0.0001). Serum 25(OH)D(3) returned to baseline only at T5 while 1α,25(OH)(2)D(3) demonstrated an overshoot above baseline at T5 (P < 0.0001). There was a delayed rise in CRP at T4 and T5; this was not associated with a reduction in vitamin D levels at these time points.Hemodilution significantly lowers serum 25(OH)D(3) and 1α,25(OH)(2)D(3), which may take up to 24 hours to resolve. Moreover, delayed overshoot of 1α,25(OH)(2)D(3) needs consideration. We urge caution in interpreting serum vitamin D in critically ill patients in the context of major resuscitation, and would advocate repeating the measurement once the effects of the resuscitation have abated

Cr(VI) Effect on Tc-99 Removal from Hanford Low-Activity Waste Simulant by Ferrous Hydroxide.

Here, Cr(VI) effects on Tc-immobilization by Fe(OH)2(s) are investigated while assessing Fe(OH)2(s) as a potential treatment method for Hanford low-activity waste destined for vitrification. Batch studies using simulated low-activity waste indicate that Tc(VII) and Cr(VI) removal is contingent on reduction to Tc(IV) and Cr(III). Furthermore, complete removal of both Cr and Tc depends on the amount of Fe(OH)2(s) present, where complete Cr and Tc removal requires more Fe(OH)2(s) (∼200 g/L of simulant), than removing Cr alone (∼50 g/L of simulant). XRD analysis suggests that Fe(OH)2(s) reaction and transformation in the simulant produces mostly goethite (α-FeOOH), where Fe(OH)2(s) transformation to goethite rather than magnetite is likely due to the simulant chemistry, which includes high levels of nitrite and other constituents. Once reduced, a fraction of Cr(III) and Tc(IV) substitute for octahedral Fe(III) within the goethite crystal lattice as supported by XPS, XANES, and/or EXAFS results. The remaining Cr(III) forms oxide and/or hydroxide phases, whereas Tc(IV) not fully incorporated into goethite persists as either adsorbed or partially incorporated Tc(IV)-oxide species. As such, to fully incorporate Tc(IV) into the goethite crystal structure, additional Fe(OH)2(s) (&gt;200 g/L of simulant) may be required

On the potential of a new generation of magnetometers for MEG: a beamformer simulation study

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is a sophisticated tool which yields rich information on the spatial, spectral and temporal signatures of human brain function. Despite unique potential, MEG is limited by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) which is caused by both the inherently small magnetic fields generated by the brain, and the scalp-to-sensor distance. The latter is limited in current systems due to a requirement for pickup coils to be cryogenically cooled. Recent work suggests that optically-pumped magnetometers (OPMs) might be a viable alternative to superconducting detectors for MEG measurement. They have the advantage that sensors can be brought to within ~4 mm of the scalp, thus offering increased sensitivity. Here, using simulations, we quantify the advantages of hypothetical OPM systems in terms of sensitivity, reconstruction accuracy and spatial resolution. Our results show that a multi-channel whole-head OPM system offers (on average) a fivefold improvement in sensitivity for an adult brain, as well as clear improvements in reconstruction accuracy and spatial resolution. However, we also show that such improvements depend critically on accurate forward models; indeed, the reconstruction accuracy of our simulated OPM system only outperformed that of a simulated superconducting system in cases where forward field error was less than 5%. Overall, our results imply that the realisation of a viable whole-head multi-channel OPM system could generate a step change in the utility of MEG as a means to assess brain electrophysiological activity in health and disease. However in practice, this will require both improved hardware and modelling algorithms

Reduction and Simultaneous Removal of 99Tc and Cr by Fe(OH)2(s) Mineral Transformation.

Technetium (Tc) remains a priority remediation concern due to persistent challenges, including mobilization due to rapid reoxidation of immobilized Tc, and competing comingled contaminants, e.g., Cr(VI), that inhibit Tc(VII) reduction and incorporation into stable mineral phases. Here Fe(OH)2(s) is investigated as a comprehensive solution for overcoming these challenges, by serving as both the reductant, (Fe(II)), and the immobilization agent to form Tc-incorporated magnetite (Fe3O4). Trace metal analysis suggests removal of Tc(VII) and Cr(VI) from solution occurs simultaneously; however, complete removal and reduction of Cr(VI) is achieved earlier than the removal/reduction of comingled Tc(VII). Bulk oxidation state analysis of the final magnetite solid phase by XANES shows that the majority of Tc is Tc(IV), which is corroborated by XPS measurements. Furthermore, EXAFS results show successful, albeit partial, Tc(IV) incorporation into magnetite octahedral sites. Cr XPS analysis indicates reduction to Cr(III) and the formation of a Cr-incorporated spinel, Cr2O3, and Cr(OH)3 phases. Spinel (modeled as Fe3O4), goethite (α-FeOOH), and feroxyhyte (δ-FeOOH) are detected in all reacted final solid phase samples analyzed by XRD. Incorporation of Tc(IV) has little effect on the spinel lattice structure. Reaction of Fe(OH)2(s) in the presence of Cr(III) results in the formation of a spinel phase that is a solid solution between magnetite (Fe3O4) and chromite (FeCr2O4)