Are Business Cycles All Alike?

This paper examines two questions. The first is whether economic fluctuations-business cycles-are due to an accumulation of nall shocks or instead mostly to infrequent large shocks. The paper concludes that neither of these two extreme views accurately characterize fluctuations. The second question is whether fluctuations are due mostly to one source of shocks, for example monetary, or instead to many sources. The paper concludes that evidence strongly supports the hypothesis of many, about equally important, sources of shocks.To analyze the empirical evidence and to reach these conclusions, the paper uses two different statistical approaches. The first is estimation ofa structural model, using a set of just identifying restrictions. The secondis non-structural and may be described as a formalization of the Burns Mitchell techniques. Both approaches are somewhat novel and should be of independent interest.

The Federal Home Loan Bank system : the "other" housing GSE.

Founded in 1932, the twelve Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) have historically provided long-term funding to specialized mortgage lenders. But legislative changes in the wake of the 1980s’ thrift crises spurred the FHLBs to expand in both size and scope. For example, FHLB balance sheets now also include a substantial investment in mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, and the attendant interest rate risk has created financial and accounting difficulties at some of the FHLBs. ; Like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the FHLB System is a government-sponsored enterprise that funds itself largely with federal agency debt obligations that investors perceive to be implicitly guaranteed by the U.S. government. This article identifies some differences in risk-taking incentives between the cooperatively owned FHLB System and investor-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ; Cooperative ownership itself does not reduce FHLB risk-taking incentives because, unlike many mutuals, the FHLB System does not bundle its equity and debt claims. Also, the joint-and-several liability provision in the FHLBs’ consolidated debt obligations and a lack of equity market discipline may heighten FHLB risk-taking incentives. However, the FHLBs cannot avail themselves of equity-based managerial compensation, which create high-powered risk-taking incentives in investor-owned firms. Thus, it is unclear whether the FHLBs’ risk-taking incentives are necessarily weaker than Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s.Federal home loan banks

OBTAINING LOWER AND UPPER BOUNDS ON THE VALUE OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS AS A FUNCTION OF RISK PREFERENCES

A methodological approach to obtain bounds on the value of information based on an inexact representation of the decision makerÂ’s utility function is presented. Stochastic dominance procedures are used to derive the bounds. These bounds provide more information than the single point estimates associated with traditional decision analysis approach to valuing information, in that classes of utility functions can be considered instead of one specific utility function. Empirical results for valuing seasonal climate forecasts illustrate that the type of management strategy given by the decision makerÂ’s prior knowledge interacts with the decision makerÂ’s risk preferences to determine the bounds.Risk and Uncertainty,

An Agent-Based Model of Behavior in “Beauty Contest” Games

Recently, computer simulation, particularly agent-based modeling, has grown in popularity as a method to uncover macro patterns and developments that emerge from simple micro behavior. The present paper combines both techniques by using protocol analysis to uncover player strategies in an experiment and encoding those strategies in an agent-based computer simulation. In particular, Keynes’ (1936) beauty contest analogy is simulated in a number-guessing context. Several researchers have conducted experiments asking subjects to play “p-beauty contest games” in order to compare the experimental results with those predicted by the game-theoretic, deductive reasoning concept of iterated dominance. Our results are compared with those found experimentally in order to demonstrate the usefulness of a combining agent-based modeling with protocol analysis.Agent-Based modeling; Beauty contest games

Evidence-based Decision-making in Canada’s Protected Areas Organizations: Implications for Management Effectiveness

Aichi Biodiversity Target 19 calls on Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to improve, share, transfer, and apply knowledge. In this study, we provide an initial assessment of the state of evidence-based decision-making in Canada’s protected areas organizations by examining (1) the value and use of various forms of evidence by managers and (2) the extent to which institutional conditions enable or inhibit the use of evidence in decision-making. Results revealed that although managers value and use many forms of evidence in their decision-making, information produced by staff and their organizations are given priority. Other forms of evidence, such as Indigenous knowledge and peer-reviewed information, are valued and used less. The most significant barriers to evidence-based decision-making were limited financial resources, lack of staff, inadequate timeframes for decision-making, a lack of monitoring programs, and a disconnect between researchers and decision-makers. Overall, our results suggest that the potential benefits of evidence-based approaches are not being maximized in Canada’s protected areas organizations. We propose several recommendations to introduce or improve the use of diverse forms of evidence to enhance management effectiveness of Canada’s protected areas and by extension conservation outcomes

PCORnet's Collaborative Research Groups.

The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) launched a multi-institutional "network of networks" in 2013 - Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet) - that is designed to conduct clinical research that is faster, less expensive, and more responsive to the information needs of patients and clinicians. To enhance cross-network and cross-institutional collaboration and catalyze the use of PCORnet, PCORI has supported formation of 11 Collaborative Research Groups focusing on specific disease types (e.g., cardiovascular health and cancer) or particular patient populations (e.g., pediatrics and health disparities). PCORnet's Collaborative Research Groups are establishing research priorities within these focus areas, establishing relationships with potential funders, and supporting development of specific research projects that will use PCORnet resources. PCORnet remains a complex, multilevel, and heterogeneous network that is still maturing and building a diverse portfolio of observational and interventional people-centered research; engaging with PCORnet can be daunting, particularly for outside investigators. We believe the Collaborative Research Groups are stimulating interest and helping investigators navigate the complexity, but only time will tell if these efforts will bear fruit in terms of funded multicenter PCORnet projects

A new substrate for sampling deep river macroinvertebrates

We compared macroinvertebrate communities colonising multiplate samplers constructed from perspex or tempered hardboard (wood) with an alternative artificial substrate constructed from folded coconut fibre matting (coir) enclosed in nylon netting. Substrates were incubated for 62 days over January to March 2007 at six sites over 240 km along the Waikato River. The three substrates supported similar numbers of invertebrate taxa (27 - 29 taxa), but coir samples contained 71% of total invertebrate numbers from all substrates combined, compared with <17% for each type of multiplate sampler. Coir faunas were heavily dominated by the hydrobiid snail Potamopyrgus (84 % of numbers), and this taxon along with the amphipod Paracalliope comprised 58 - 66 % of invertebrates on both types of multiplate samplers. Analysis of a Bray-Curtis matrix suggested statistically significant differences in percent community composition between coir samplers and each type of multiplate sampler over the late summer study period. Densities per cm3 of Oligochaeta, Mollusca, and "other worms" (Platyhelminthes, Rhabdocoela, Nemertea and Hirudinea combined) were significantly higher in coir samples than one or both of the multiplate samplers. Results suggest coir samplers may provide a useful supplement to multiplate samplers for deep river invertebrate studies by collecting a different range of taxa, including those favouring cover and characteristic of depositional environments

The Content of Several Measures of Social Desirability

The question of whether to remove socially desirable responding (SDR) variance from self-report personality inventories, or to treat it as a facet of personality, has been the center of a debate spanning the last 25 years (Furnham, 1986). Recently, this controversy again came to the forefront of the literature via an exchange between a group of researchers (Block, 1990; Edwards, 1990; Nicholson & Hogan, 1990; Walsh, 1990). The essence of this debate is whether the correlation between a SDR scale and a personality scale indicated that the personality scale is contaminated by SDR bias, or if it merely indicates that there is content overlap between the two types of scales

Polyimides with improved compression moldability

The semicrystalline polyimide prepared by reaction of 3,3',4,4' benzophenonetetracarboxylic (BTDA) and 1,3-bis(4-aminophenoxy 4' benzoyl) benzene (1,3-BABB) is modified so that it can be more readily processed to form adhesive bonds, moldings, and composites. The stoichiometric ratio of the two monomers, BTDA and 1,3-BABB is controlled so that the intermediate polyamide acid is of a calculated molecular weight. A polyimide acid with excess anhydride groups is then reacted with the stoichiometrically required amount of monofunctional aromatic or aliphatic amine required for complete endcapping. The stoichiometrically offset, encapped polyimide is processed at lower temperatures and pressures than the unmodified high molecular weight polyimide with the same repeat unit, and exhibits an improved melt stability