A Real-Option Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration

The potential impact of climate change on international migration patterns has recently received considerable attention in both the public and academic debate. Yet, much of the empirical literature fails to find increases in international migration due to climate change. The current paper attempts to resolve this “immobility paradox” by applying a real-options framework to the relationship between climate change and international migration. This framework suggests that individuals may postpone their migration response to climate change in the face of uncertainty and only migrate once impacts of climate change have exceeded certain thresholds. I test this prediction using semiparametric regression methods which allow me to empirically identify the threshold effects implied by the real-options framework. However, the findings are generally inconsistent with such threshold effects. Rather, the results suggest that in low-income countries, individuals’ migration response is hampered by the existence of liquidity constraints. These are likely to become more binding due to climate change-induced decreases in agricultural productivity

A Wide-field High Resolution HI Mosaic of Messier 31: I. Opaque Atomic Gas and Star Formation Rate Density

We have undertaken a deep, wide-field HI imaging survey of M31, reaching a maximum resolution of about 50 pc and 2 km/s across a 95x48 kpc region. The HI mass and brightness sensitivity at 100 pc resolution for a 25 km/s wide spectral feature is 1500 M_Sun and 0.28 K. Our study reveals ubiquitous HI self-opacity features, discernible in the first instance as filamentary local minima in images of the peak HI brightness temperature. Local minima are organized into complexes of more than kpc length and are particularly associated with the leading edge of spiral arm features. Just as in the Galaxy, there is only patchy correspondence of self-opaque features with CO(1-0) emission. Localized opacity corrections to the column density exceed an order of magnitude in many cases and add globally to a 30% increase in the atomic gas mass over that inferred from the integrated brightness under the usual assumption of negligible self-opacity. Opaque atomic gas first increases from 20 to 60 K in spin temperature with radius to 12 kpc but then declines again to 20 K beyond 25 kpc. We have extended the resolved star formation law down to physical scales more than an order of magnitude smaller in area and mass than has been possible previously. The relation between total-gas-mass- and star-formation-rate-density is significantly tighter than that with molecular-mass and is fully consistent in both slope and normalization with the power law index of 1.56 found in the molecule-dominated disk of M51 at 500 pc resolution. Below a gas-mass-density of about 5 M_Sun/pc^2, there is a down-turn in star-formation-rate-density which may represent a real local threshold for massive star formation at a cloud mass of about 5x10^4 M_Sun.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, 34 pages, 20 figure

The Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals in the Nordic Arctic (ISDeGoNA)

This report assesses the status of the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Nordic Arctic. The 17 SDG’s can be seen as the most comprehensive international effort for sustainable development, however the process of implementing them in an Arctic context is still a research- and policy gap. In response, a comparative study has been carried out with a more specific focus on SDG implementation in Arctic Finland, Iceland, and Norway. Here, the research findings are based on small literature reviews and extensive semi-structured interviews with regional governments, local authorities, and business organizations. From this perspective, different contexts were thematized such as SDG awareness, most relevant SDGs within the focus areas, respective achievements and shortcomings, governance processes as well as essential stakeholders enabling SDG implementation.publishedVersio

Phosphorus desorption and isotope exchange kinetics in agricultural soils

To improve phosphorus (P) fertilization and environmental assessments, a better understanding of release kinetics of solid-phase P to soil solution is needed. In this study, Fe (hydr)oxide-coated filter papers (Fh papers), isotopic exchange kinetics (IEK) and chemical extractions were used to assess the sizes of fast and slowly desorbing P pools in the soils of six long-term Swedish field experiments. The P desorption data from the Fh-paper extraction of soil (20 days of continual P removal) were fitted with the Lookman two-compartment desorption model, which estimates the pools of fast (Q(1)) and slowly (Q(2)) desorbing P, and their desorption rates k(1) and k(2). The amounts of isotope-exchangeable P (E) were calculated (E-1min to E->3 months) and compared with Q(1) and Q(2). The strongest relationship was found between E-1 min and Q(1) (r(2) = .87, p < .01). There was also an inverse relationship between the IEK parameter n (the rate of exchange) and k(1) (r(2) = .52, p < .01) and k(2) (r(2) = .52, p < .01), suggesting that a soil with a high value of n desorbs less P per time unit. The relationships between these results show that they deliver similar information, but both methods are hard to implement in routine analysis. However, Olsen-extractable P was similar in magnitude to Q(1) (P-Olsen = 1.1 x Q(1) + 2.3, r(2) = .96), n and k(1) were related to P-Olsen/P-CaCl2, while k(2) was related to P-oxalate/P-Olsen. Therefore, these extractions can be used to estimate the sizes and desorption rates of the different P pools, which could be important for assessments of plant availability and leaching

Exploiting Sparsity in Automotive Radar Object Detection Networks

Having precise perception of the environment is crucial for ensuring the secure and reliable functioning of autonomous driving systems. Radar object detection networks are one fundamental part of such systems. CNN-based object detectors showed good performance in this context, but they require large compute resources. This paper investigates sparse convolutional object detection networks, which combine powerful grid-based detection with low compute resources. We investigate radar specific challenges and propose sparse kernel point pillars (SKPP) and dual voxel point convolutions (DVPC) as remedies for the grid rendering and sparse backbone architectures. We evaluate our SKPP-DPVCN architecture on nuScenes, which outperforms the baseline by 5.89% and the previous state of the art by 4.19% in Car AP4.0. Moreover, SKPP-DPVCN reduces the average scale error (ASE) by 21.41% over the baseline

Proving sequential consistency by model checking

Sequential consistency is a multiprocessor memory model of both practical and theoretical importance. Unfortunately, the general problem of verifying that a finitestate protocol implements sequential consistency is undecidable, and in practice, validating that a real-world, finitestate protocol implements sequential consistency is very time-consuming and costly. In this work, we show that for memory protocols that occur in practice, a small amount of manual effort can reduce the problem of verifying sequential consistency into a verification task that can be discharged automatically via model checking. Furthermore, we present experimental results on a substantial, directorybased cache coherence protocol, which demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

60 Years of Glacier Elevation and Mass Changes in the Maipo River Basin, Central Andes of Chile

Glaciers in the central Andes of Chile are fundamental freshwater sources for ecosystems and communities. Overall, glaciers in this region have shown continuous recession and down-wasting, but long-term glacier mass balance studies providing precise estimates of these changes are scarce. Here, we present the first long-term (1955–2013/2015), region-specific glacier elevation and mass change estimates for the Maipo River Basin, from which the densely populated metropolitan region of Chile obtains most of its freshwater supply. We calculated glacier elevation and mass changes using historical topographic maps, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurements (TanDEM-X), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models. The results indicated a mean regional glacier mass balance of −0.12 ± 0.06 m w.e.a−1, with a total mass loss of 2.43 ± 0.26 Gt for the Maipo River Basin between 1955–2013. The most negative glacier mass balance was the Olivares sub-basin, with a mean value of −0.29 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1. We observed spatially heterogeneous glacier elevation and mass changes between 1955 and 2000, and more negative values between 2000 and 2013, with an acceleration in ice thinning rates starting in 2010, which coincides with the severe drought. Our results provide key information to improve glaciological and hydrological projections in a region where water resources are under pressure

Toward a fully cloudified mobile network infrastructure

Cloud computing enables the on-demand delivery of resources for a multitude of services and gives the opportunity for small agile companies to compete with large industries. In the telco world, cloud computing is currently mostly used by mobile network operators (MNO) for hosting non-critical support services and selling cloud services such as applications and data storage. MNOs are investigating the use of cloud computing to deliver key telecommunication services in the access and core networks. Without this, MNOs lose the opportunities of both combining this with over-the-top (OTT) and value-added services to their fundamental service offerings and leveraging cost-effective commodity hardware. Being able to leverage cloud computing technology effectively for the telco world is the focus of mobile cloud networking (MCN). This paper presents the key results of MCN integrated project that includes its architecture advancements, prototype implementation, and evaluation. Results show the efficiency and the simplicity that a MNO can deploy and manage the complete service lifecycle of fully cloudified, composed services that combine OTT/IT- and mobile-network-based services running on commodity hardware. The extensive performance evaluation of MCN using two key proof-of-concept scenarios that compose together many services to deliver novel converged elastic, on-demand mobile-based but innovative OTT services proves the feasibility of such fully virtualized deployments. Results show that it is beneficial to extend cloud computing to telco usage and run fully cloudified mobile-network-based systems with clear advantages and new service opportunities for MNOs and end-users

Sustained Viral Suppression With Dolutegravir Monotherapy Over 192 Weeks in Patients Starting Combination Antiretroviral Therapy During Primary Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection (EARLY-SIMPLIFIED): A Randomized, Controlled, Multi-site, Noninferiority Trial

BACKGROUND: Starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection results in a smaller HIV-1 latent reservoir, reduced immune activation, and less viral diversity compared to starting cART during chronic infection. We report results of a 4-year study designed to determine whether these properties would allow sustained virological suppression after simplification of cART to dolutegravir (DTG) monotherapy. METHODS: EARLY-SIMPLIFIED is a randomized, open-label, noninferiority trial. People with HIV (PWH) who started cART <180 days after a documented primary HIV-1 infection with suppressed viral load were randomized (2:1) to DTG monotherapy with 50 mg daily or continuation of cART. The primary endpoints were the proportion of PWH with viral failure at 48, 96, 144, and 192 weeks; noninferiority margin was 10%. After 96 weeks, randomization was lifted and patients were permitted to switch treatment groups as desired. RESULTS: Of 101 PWH randomized, 68 were assigned to DTG monotherapy and 33 to cART. At week 96 in the per-protocol population, 64/64 (100%) showed virological response in the DTG monotherapy group versus 30/30 (100%) in the cART group (difference, 0.00%; upper bound of 95% confidence interval 6.22%). This demonstrated noninferiority of DTG monotherapy at the prespecified level. At week 192, the study end, no virological failure occurred in either group during 13 308 and 4897 person weeks of follow-up for the DTG monotherapy (n = 80) and cART groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This trial suggests that early cART initiation during primary HIV infection allows sustained virological suppression after switching to DTG monotherapy

Genetic diversity from proviral DNA as a proxy for time since HIV-1 infection.

HIV-1 RNA genetic diversity predicts time since infection which is important for clinical care and research. It's unclear, however, whether proviral DNA genetic diversity sampled under suppressive antiretroviral therapy can be used for this purpose. We tested whether proviral genetic diversity from NGS sequences predicts time since infection and recency in 221 people with HIV-1 with known infection time. Proviral diversity was significantly associated with time since infection (p<5*10-07, R2 up to 25%) and predictive of treatment initiation during recent infection (AUC-ROC up to 0.85). This shows the utility of proviral genetic diversity as a proxy for time since infection