Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection

Near-infrared line identification in type Ia supernovae during the transitional phase

We present near-infrared synthetic spectra of a delayed-detonation hydrodynamical model and compare them to observed spectra of four normal type Ia supernovae ranging from day +56.5 to day +85. This is the epoch during which supernovae are believed to be undergoing the transition from the photospheric phase, where spectra are characterized by line scattering above an optically thick photosphere, to the nebular phase, where spectra consist of optically thin emission from forbidden lines. We find that most spectral features in the near-infrared can be accounted for by permitted lines of Fe II and Co II. In addition, we find that [Ni II] fits the emission feature near 1.98 {\mu}m, suggesting that a substantial mass of 58Ni exists near the center of the ejecta in these objects, arising from nuclear burning at high density. A tentative identification of Mn II at 1.15 {\mu}m may support this conclusion as well.Comment: accepted to Ap

Islam in the North Caucasus: A People Divided

Religious diversity has had a dramatic impact on the development of the North Caucasus region. People do not indentify primarily with either a national or international Islamic community. The fundamentalist Vakhabite community has become a major regional force during the past decade in spite of numerous efforts to suppress its influence. Official suppression of the Vakhabites has resulted in the emergence of a clandestine Vakhabite network supported from abroad. Islamic radicals throughout the regions (mostly Saudi and North African Arabs) have joined with the Khattab group in order to receive military training in camps which are operated to support Arab terrorists. Khattab was born in Saudi Arabia. The Chechen diaspora that has placed a major supporting role in the modern Middle East, especially in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, is returning its children to Chechnya. And now, the return of Chechen Jordanians such as Shamil Bassayev and Ipak Fath has helped to radicalize many young Chechens who became active combatants in the Chechen wars. Money, armaments, and soldiers (mujahideen) provided by radical Islamic groups from abroad have played a major role in strengthening the Chechen resistance movement. After the First Chechen war (1994-1996), religious differences between the Sufi movements and the Vakhabite movement began to have a deleterious political impact in the region. While Sufi Muslims called for creation of a secular state that would preserve traditional social patterns, the Vakhabites have demanded a purification of Islam and eradication of local customs that have tainted and undermined pure Islam

The Moldovan Confederation Conundrum

The Gagauz leadership has advanced several basic demands. The first category of demands relates to economic concerns and these appear to be the most fundamental. The situation that they insist be addressed in that there is an economic disparity between Gagauzia and the rest of the Moldovan Republic. If one looks beyond the rhetoric of Comrat, Gagauz political demands are secondary to the economic ones. They demand political parties that would operate in local elections. They want more seats in the Moldovan Parliament and believe that all laws should be published in the Gagauz language as well as in Russian and Romanian. While much has been said about Turkish involvement with Gagauzia, this has not served to generate any feeling among the Gaguz that their cultural roots are in Turkey. Those who emigrate are most likely to go, first, to the United States and, second, to Russia. Ties between Gagauzia and Transdniestria reached their closest during the early part of the 1990s. Since that time Gagauzia has found a more effective relationship working within the Moldovan Republic. The confrontations of recent months are a product of the Moldovan political crisis, not intervention from Tiraspol. They have led to a renewal of ties between these two regions. Transdniestria’s fundamental demand is to assume equal status with the Moldovan Republic within a confederation. There appear to be limited prospects for a renewal of violence such as that seen in 1992. Direct foreign intervention by any one of the three nations with the greatest interests in this situation – Russia, the Ukraine, and Romania – appears unlikely barring a renewal of violence

Montenegro: Vassal or Sovereign?

The authors conclude that Montenegro could be the key for Balkan peace. Relieved of its Yugoslav appendix, Serbia might finally focus inward on the pressing economic problems and opt for democratization and cooperation with the international community. However, it might also be that Montenegro is a trigger for a new protracted civil war, a new Vietnam, which will immerse the future of Balkan people in uncertainty

Religious Brotherhoods in Chechnya

Sufism is one of the most important religious movements in Chechnya. It is significant because it is a popular rallying point and, to the external world, it is not obvious who is or is not a member of these clandestine brotherhoods. Sufism gives its adherents an organizational basis that is somewhat like that of the early communist party. There are twenty-seven religious movements operating in Chechnya today. Kunta Hadji is one of the most important of these and is associated with the Qadiriya brotherhood, generally regarded as the second most important of the Soviet-era brotherhoods. Following the first Chechen war, much of Chechen society was mobilized by Vakhabism. The Kunta-Hadjists, whose values were declared heretical by the Vakhabits, found themselves in competition and sometime combat with this more militant and anti-Russian group. The Kunta-Hadjists support the restoration of the Shari’s Islamic laws have criticized president A.Maskhadov for his ambiguous stand towards the issue of Vakhabism

The Stability of the Dniester Moldovan Republic: A Post-Election Analysis

The communists\u27 electoral victory and the elevation of Voronin to the Presidency drew Moldova closer to the Russian Federation and raised new questions about the stability of the Dniester Moldovan Republic. The existence of the DMR no longer serves Russian interests as it did in the past. The prospects for confrontation between the DMR and Moldova are greater today as a result of the Communist Party victory. While President Voronin has privately expressed his disdain for the DMR leadership, he seems willing to accept the existence of the DMR. By the latter part of the past decade, the DMR existed primarily as a vehicle for criminal activities rather than as a bastion of Stalinism and Russian nationalism. Weapons left behind by Soviet forces have made the DMR a major factor in illegal arms trafficking

Islam in the North Caucasus: A People Divided

Religious diversity has had a dramatic impact on the development of the North Caucasus region. People do not identify primarily with either a national or international Islamic community. This paper examins religious issues in the Caucases (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Northern Ossetia, Kabardin-Balkaria, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, and Adygeiya), with special emphasis on the Chechen conflict

The Unusually Luminous Extragalactic Nova SN 2010U

We present observations of the unusual optical transient SN 2010U, including spectra taken 1.03 days to 15.3 days after maximum light that identify it as a fast and luminous Fe II type nova. Our multi-band light curve traces the fast decline (t_2 = 3.5 days) from maximum light (M_V = -10.2 mag), placing SN 2010U in the top 0.5% of the most luminous novae ever observed. We find typical ejecta velocities of approximately 1100 km/s and that SN 2010U shares many spectral and photometric characteristics with two other fast and luminous Fe II type novae, including Nova LMC 1991 and M31N-2007-11d. For the extreme luminosity of this nova, the maximum magnitude vs. rate of decline relationship indicates a massive white dwarf progenitor with a low pre-outburst accretion rate. However, this prediction is in conflict with emerging theories of nova populations, which predict that luminous novae from massive white dwarfs should preferentially exhibit an alternate spectral type (He/N) near maximum light.Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journa