Assessing the Impact of Public Transfers on Private Risk Sharing Arrangements. Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico

We adopt a structural approach to studying the effects of public transfers on consumption smoothing, risk sharing and welfare in small village economies. We calibrate the key parameters of a dynamic limited commitment model using data gathered as part of the Mexican Progresa program, and take advantage of the randomized experimental design of the data to validate the model using the treatment sample. The limited commitment model enriched to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in preferences can reasonably well explain consumption dynamics and cross-sectional distributions. The calibrated model correctly predicts the increase in consumption smoothing of transfers’ recipients, and the decrease in risk sharing between beneficiaries and non beneficiaries of the program. Progresa transfers are found to crowd-out between 3% and 10% of the pre-existing private transfers, but the overall direct effect of the subsidy on consumption is welfare improving for all households. Last, we use our structural model to evaluate a counterfactual, fully funded, insurance scheme.Risk Sharing, Limited Commitment, Crowding-out, Transfers Programsd

An Equilibrium Model of Lumpy Housing Investment

We formulate and solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and lumpy housing adjustment at the household level. We use the model to ask a simple question: how does the microeconomic lumpiness of housing adjustment affect the equilibrium dynamic properties of aggregate consumption and investment? Our main conclusion is that lumpiness matters: in particular, lumpiness in housing adjustment (1) reduces the volatility of both housing and business investment; (2) increases the volatility of aggregate consumption; (3) increases the correlation of housing investment with business investment and with GDP. We also show that lumpiness of investment activity at the household level has small but significant aggregate implications, in contrast with the literature that shows that the aggregate effects of lumpy investment at the firm level are negligible.

Housing and Debt over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle

We study housing and debt in a quantitative general equilibrium model. In the cross-section, the model matches the wealth distribution, the age pro?les of homeownership and mortgage debt, and the frequency of housing adjustment. In the time-series, the model matches the procyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of mortgage debt. We use the model to conduct two experiments. First, we investigate the consequences of higher individual income risk and lower downpayments, and ?nd that these two changes can explain, in the model and in the data, the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of mortgage debt, and a small fraction of the reduced volatility of GDP. Second, we use the model to look at the behavior of housing investment and mortgage debt in an experiment that mimics the Great Recession: we ?nd that countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and mortgage debt when the economy is hit by large negative shocks.Housing, Housing Investment, Mortgage Debt, Life-cycle Models, Income Risk, Homeownership, Precautionary Savings, Borrowing Constraints

Assessing the Impact of Public Transfers on Private Risk Sharing Arrangements: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico

We adopt a structural approach to studying the effects of public transfers on consumption smoothing, risk sharing and welfare in small village economies. We calibrate the key parameters of a dynamic limited commitment model using data gathered as part of the Mexican Progresa program, and take advantage of the randomized experimental design of the data to validate the model using the treatment sample. The limited commitment model enriched to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in preferences can reasonably well explain consumption dynamics and cross-sectional distributions. The calibrated model correctly predicts the increase in consumption smoothing of transfers’ recipients, and the decrease in risk sharing between beneficiaries and non beneficiaries of the program. Progresa transfers are found to crowd-out between 3% and 10% of the pre-existing private transfers, but the overall direct e,ect of the subsidy on consumption is welfare improving for all households. Last, we use our structural model to evaluate a counterfactual, fully funded, insurance scheme.Risk Sharing, Limited Commitment, Crowding-out, Transfers Programs

Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks

Should I default on my mortgage even if I can pay? Experimental evidence

We study strategic default in the laboratory, i.e., in a controlled experiment. Subjects are initially endowed with a house and a mortgage (we use neutral wording in the experiment), and must decide at each period in which their mortgage is alive among three options: making the mortgage payment, selling the house, or walking away from their house and defaulting on their mortgage. At each point in time, we can observe whether defaulters can afford to make the mortgage payment, and thus, directly compute the number of strategic defaulters. Subjects default in the right periods and quite fast learn what they should consume. We find experimental support for the “double trigger” hypothesis: individuals faced with low income and low house prices are more likely to default. We observe that subjects default less than optimal, and this decision is significantly affected by social norm concerns in the context of the experiment. Individuals under-consume in the first periods of life: they are “cautious” when indebted. Both introducing a 50% probability of recourse and a Responsible Homeowner Reward are very effective in preventing default in the lab, especially by individuals receiving a bad shock to income when house prices are low

Design e tecnologia: criação de ferramenta de conscientização sobre depressão

A depressão é uma doença grave que atinge cada vez mais pessoas no mundo, porém cerca de metade delas não busca tratamento que, na maioria dos casos, possibilita a cura. Um dos principais fatores para que estas pessoas deixem de procurar ajuda é o estigma social ligado à depressão que acaba por excluir o doente. Nesse contexto, e entendendo o design como uma ferramenta interdisciplinar que propõe soluções aos problemas existentes na sociedade, este trabalho tem como objetivo o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta para a conscientização sobre depressão. Para isso, foi necessário entender a doença, a formação do estigma, a interação social e a possibilidade do design e da tecnologia gerarem uma rede de apoio que leva informações sobre a doença para a sociedade. O desenvolvimento do trabalho foi guiado pela metodologia de Garrett (2011), a qual inclui os usuários no processo de design. Para conhecer estes usuários, foram realizadas pesquisas a fim de compreender sua visão sobre depressão, smartphones e aplicativos móveis. Também foi feita uma análise de similares para verificar a usabilidade e a funcionalidade dos aplicativos. A partir do levantamento de dados, criou-se uma lista de requisitos que guiou o desdobramento da etapa criativa do trabalho, onde se utilizou a técnica de moodboard para aprofundamento das expectativas dos usuários e geração de inspiração para o desenvolvimento do design visual do aplicativo. Também foram criados o diagrama de arquitetura, os wireframes e as telas finais de acordo com os requisitos estabelecidos durante o trabalho. Por fim, foi gerado um protótipo e realizados testes de usabilidade e de verificação dos requisitos a fim de validar o desenvolvimento do aplicativo, o qual objetiva unir design e tecnologia para promover a criação de redes de apoio e também a conscientização da sociedade, buscando diminuir o estigma ligado à depressão.Depression is a serious disease that increasingly affects people in the world, but about half of them do not seek a treatment that, in most cases, makes the cure possible. One of the main factors for these people to stop seeking help is the social stigma attached to depression that ultimately excludes the patient. In this context, and understanding design as an interdisciplinary tool that proposes solutions to existing problems in society, this work aims to develop a tool to raise awareness about depression. For this, it was necessary to understand the disease, the stigma formation, the social interaction and the possibility of design and technology to generate a support network that gives information about the disease to society. The development of the work was guided by the methodology of Garrett (2011), which includes users in the design process. To know these users, surveys were conducted to understand their views on depression, smartphones and mobile applications. A similar analysis was also done to verify the usability and functionality of the applications. From the data collection, a list of requirements was created that guided the unfolding of the creative stage of the work, where the moodboard technique was used to deepen users' expectations and generate inspiration for the development of the visual design of the application. The architecture diagram, wireframes and final screens were also created according to the requirements established during the work. Finally, a prototype was generated and usability and requirements verification tests were performed to validate the development of the application, which aims to unite design and technology to promote the creation of support networks and also the awareness of society, seeking to decrease the stigma attached to depression

Se toca: podcast sobre o tabu da sexualidade feminina

Esse projeto propõe analisar historicamente como foi construído o tabu da sexualidade feminina na sociedade judaico cristã ocidental e a produção de um podcast que ilustre como essa construção influenciou a vida das mulheres de diferentes classes sociais, orientações sexuais e estruturas familiares. O formato do podcast foi escolhido por sua maior disseminação nos últimos anos e por ser um formato que é cada vez mais utilizado pelas minorias sociais para produzir conteúdo independente

A QUALIDADE NA EDUCAÇÃO INFANTIL: UM OLHAR A PARTIR DAS POLÍTICAS NACIONAIS

Esse artigo tem como objetivo revisitar teoricamente o conceito de Qualidade na Educação Infantil, bem como compreender as orientações e os indicativos de qualidade propostos nas Políticas Nacionais para as instituições desse nível de ensino. Os estudos pautaram-se nos seguintes aportes legais: Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação Nacional – LDB – 9394/96; o Referencial Curricular Nacional para a Educação Infantil, 1998; Diretrizes Curriculares Nacionais para a Educação Infantil, 1999; Parâmetros Básicos de Infraestrutura para Instituições de Educação Infantil, 2006; Parâmetros Nacionais de Qualidade para Educação Infantil, 2006; Critérios para um Atendimento em Creches que Respeite os Direitos Fundamentais das Crianças, 2009; e Indicadores da qualidade na Educação Infantil, 2009. É importante considerar os elementos expostos nas políticas supra-abordadas para poder elaborar propostas de trabalho de qualidade para este nível de ensino. Para a elaboração desse texto foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica de importantes concepções de estudiosos da área, também foram feitas as análises dos documentos oficiais. Por fim, constatou-se a subjetividade do conceito de qualidade da educação, pois para definir este termo de maneira coerente é preciso observar o contexto no qual a instituição está inserida, o momento sócio-histórico dos sujeitos envolvidos, além de outros aspectos que abrangem o espaço escolar

Evaluation of hydroxychloroquine induced retinal toxicity in systemic lupus erythematosus patients

Background: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disorder, which affects the major organs in the human body. Pathophysiology of SLE is unknown. It mainly affects the joints, and restricts their movement. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) an anti-malarial drug is used as the first line of drugs used to treat SLE. The major adverse effect of this drug is irreversible retinopathy. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of retinopathy in patients with long-term usage of hydroxychloroquine (for more than 1 year).Methods: In patients with SLE, we recorded a review on HCQ induced toxicity among those taking it for longer period (>1 year). All the patients were above 18 years of age. A total data of 210 patients suffering from SLE and taking HCQ for more than one year was collected. Patients were categorized according to gender and dose pattern. Out of 210 patients, 0 patients were found to be retinal toxic induced by HCQ.Results: Suitable statistical tools were used and data was analysed which showed the incidence and prevalence of HCQ induced toxicity. With the results of our study we can understand that incidence and prevalence rates were very low among the subjects.Conclusions: HCQ is said to reduce the risk of disease remission, improves survival, minimizes the risks of vital organ damage, reduces the frequency of flares and has a protective effect on cardiovascular health.  HCQ medication is usually well tolerated.  But irreversible retinopathy is the major effect on long term use of HCQ.  The present study concludes that in the nominal daily dose of 200mg did not reveal any signs of retinal toxicity in 100% of the population tested within 5 years of HCQ treatment suggesting that the toxicity is rare and can be prevented by reducing the dose of the drug