Demand forecasting model for load shifting strategy in building energy management system

Among the sectors with the highest energy consumption are transport, industries, and buildings. Buildings are responsible for the third part of energy consumption and almost 40% of CO2 emissions worldwide. The search to improve the comfort of the occupants inside the buildings has brought a consequence that buildings are increasingly equipped with devices that help to improve the thermal comfort, visual comfort, and air quality inside the buildings, causing more energy demand regardless of the type of building making buildings an untapped efficiency potential.This doctoral thesis presents a model for forecasting electricity demand in buildings based on machine learning for load-shifting strategies, which can be implemented in building energy management systems. First, the state of the art of building energy management systems is analyzed, as well as the different management strategies used within these systems. Second, within the predictive control model management strategy, the forecast models of energy consumption in buildings are analyzed, as well as the methods, input variables, prediction horizon, and metrics. Finally, about the analysis carried out on the energy consumption forecasting models, a short-term energy consumption forecasting strategy based on machine learning is developed that allows forecasting the demand for the next 24 hours from any time of the previous day.Dentro de los sectores de mayor consumo energético se encuentran: el transporte, las industrias y los edificios. Siendo los edificios responsables de una tercera parte del consumo de energía y casi un 40% de las emisiones de CO2 a nivel mundial. La búsqueda por mejorar el confort de los ocupantes dentro de los edificios ha traído como consecuencia que los edificios estén cada vez más equipados con dispositivos que ayudan a mejorar el confort térmico, el confort visual y la calidad de aire dentro de los edificios. Causando que cada vez más la demanda de energía de los edificios independientemente del tipo de edificio que sean se encuentre en crecimiento y haciendo que los edificios sean un potencial de eficiencia sin explotar. Esta tesis doctoral presenta un modelo para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica en edificios basado en aprendizaje automático para estrategias de desplazamiento de cargas, el cual puede ser implementado en sistemas de gestión energética para edificios. En primer lugar, se analiza el estado del arte de los sistemas de gestión energética de edificios, así como las diferentes estrategias de gestión que se utilizan dentro de estos sistemas. En segundo lugar, dentro de la estrategia de gestión de modelo de control predictivo se analiza los modelos de pronóstico de consumo de energía en edificios, así como los métodos, variables de entrada, horizonte de predicción y métricas. Por último, en referencia al análisis realizado sobre los modelos de pronóstico de consumo de energía se desarrolla una estrategia de pronóstico de demanda a corto plazo basada en aprendizaje automático que permite pronosticar la demanda de las próximas 24 horas a partir de cualquier hora del día anterior.Escuela de DoctoradoDoctorado en Ingeniería Industria

Interest communities and flow roles in directed networks: the Twitter network of the UK riots

Directionality is a crucial ingredient in many complex networks in which information, energy or influence are transmitted. In such directed networks, analysing flows (and not only the strength of connections) is crucial to reveal important features of the network that might go undetected if the orientation of connections is ignored. We showcase here a flow-based approach for community detection in networks through the study of the network of the most influential Twitter users during the 2011 riots in England. Firstly, we use directed Markov Stability to extract descriptions of the network at different levels of coarseness in terms of interest communities, i.e., groups of nodes within which flows of information are contained and reinforced. Such interest communities reveal user groupings according to location, profession, employer, and topic. The study of flows also allows us to generate an interest distance, which affords a personalised view of the attention in the network as viewed from the vantage point of any given user. Secondly, we analyse the profiles of incoming and outgoing long-range flows with a combined approach of role-based similarity and the novel relaxed minimum spanning tree algorithm to reveal that the users in the network can be classified into five roles. These flow roles go beyond the standard leader/follower dichotomy and differ from classifications based on regular/structural equivalence. We then show that the interest communities fall into distinct informational organigrams characterised by a different mix of user roles reflecting the quality of dialogue within them. Our generic framework can be used to provide insight into how flows are generated, distributed, preserved and consumed in directed networks.Comment: 32 pages, 14 figures. Supplementary Spreadsheet available from: http://www2.imperial.ac.uk/~mbegueri/Docs/riotsCommunities.zip or http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/101/20140940/suppl/DC

Clasificación multicriterio: una regla simple para tratar problemas complejos

Complex problems require new approaches to be addressed, and these approaches require new operational instruments. It describes multicriteria classification --a comprehensive generalisation of the traditional enumeration and sorting in row-- as a method that allows the simultaneous handling of multiple criteria or dimensions of value for an objective accounting from which, without paradox, arises the need for a subjective decision, showing that the final priority must lie on the processes and not on the objects. It also examines its role in the new foundation of historical systems science (or Natural History)

The 'who' and 'what' of #diabetes on Twitter

Social media are being increasingly used for health promotion, yet the landscape of users, messages and interactions in such fora is poorly understood. Studies of social media and diabetes have focused mostly on patients, or public agencies addressing it, but have not looked broadly at all the participants or the diversity of content they contribute. We study Twitter conversations about diabetes through the systematic analysis of 2.5 million tweets collected over 8 months and the interactions between their authors. We address three questions: (1) what themes arise in these tweets?, (2) who are the most influential users?, (3) which type of users contribute to which themes? We answer these questions using a mixed-methods approach, integrating techniques from anthropology, network science and information retrieval such as thematic coding, temporal network analysis, and community and topic detection. Diabetes-related tweets fall within broad thematic groups: health information, news, social interaction, and commercial. At the same time, humorous messages and references to popular culture appear consistently, more than any other type of tweet. We classify authors according to their temporal 'hub' and 'authority' scores. Whereas the hub landscape is diffuse and fluid over time, top authorities are highly persistent across time and comprise bloggers, advocacy groups and NGOs related to diabetes, as well as for-profit entities without specific diabetes expertise. Top authorities fall into seven interest communities as derived from their Twitter follower network. Our findings have implications for public health professionals and policy makers who seek to use social media as an engagement tool and to inform policy design.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables. Supplemental spreadsheet available from http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/2055207616688841, Digital Health, Vol 3, 201

Factores económicos implicados en el juego y la adicción al juego

La actividad de los juegos en España está regulada por el Estado y las Comunidades Autónomas. Esta situación se fundamenta, entre otros motivos, por ser una actividad que puede ser nociva para determinadas personas y porque los benefi cios que se obtienen de esa actividad económica deben revertir a la propia sociedad. La oferta de juegos tiene diversos agentes responsables de su gestión. Por un lado los públicos (principalmente loterías), gestionados por la Sociedad Estatal de Loterías y Apuestas del Estado y la Organización Nacional de Ciegos y, por otro, los privados (casinos, bingos, máquinas), que son gestionados por empresas del sector. Si tenemos en cuenta que en el año 2011, se jugaron 26.585 millones de euros, que representa el 1% del PIB, que más de 4.503 millones fueron a las arcas públicas y que generan más de 150.000 puestos de trabajo directos e indirectos, entenderemos la importancia de este sector económico y de sus repercusiones sociales. Por último, se hace un repaso de las consecuencias de los nuevos juegos a través de Internet, en especial de las apuestas deportivas (recientemente reguladas por la Administración), así como de la posible llegada de grandes proyectos de juego caracterizados por una oferta inmensa de juegos, similar a las existentes en Reno o Las Vegas. Todo ello, unido a una crisis económica sin precedentes, exige conocer este sector y las consecuencias económicas del mismo para entender los problemas asociados, de entre los cuales la adicción al juego es uno de los más característicos.Gambling is regulated by the State and Autonomous Communities in Spain. This situation is justifi ed, amongst other reasons, through being an activity which may be harmful for some people and because the profi ts obtained from this economic activity must be poured back into society itself. There are several agents in charge of managing the gambling possibilities available. On one hand there are public concerns (mainly lotteries) managed by the State Lottery Association and State Betting and the National Organisation for the Blind, as well as private ones (casinos, bingos, machines), which are managed by companies in the sector. If we take into account that a sum of 26,585 million euros was gambled in 2011, representing 1% of the GDP, that over 4,503 million went into the public treasury and that gambling generates over 150,000 direct and indirect jobs of work, we will understand the importance of this economic sector and its social repercussions. Lastly, the study takes a look at the consequences of the new games played over the Internet, in particular betting on sports (recently regulated by the Administration), as well as the possible arrival of major gambling projects characterised by an immense offer of games, similar to the ones existing in Reno or Las Vegas. All of this, combined with an unprecedented economic crisis, requires knowledge of this sector and its economic consequences to understand the associated problems, one of the most characteristic being addiction to gambling

Location Aided Cooperative Detection of Primary User Emulation Attacks in Cognitive Wireless Sensor Networks Using Nonparametric Techniques

Primary user emulation (PUE) attacks are a major security challenge to cognitive wireless sensor networks (CWSNs). In this paper, we propose two variants of the PUE attack, namely, the relay and replay attacks. Such threats are conducted by malicious nodes that replicate the transmissions of a real primary user (PU), thus making them resilient to many defensive procedures. However, we show that those PUE attacks can be effectively detected by a set of cooperating secondary users (SUs), using location information and received signal strength (RSS) measurements. Two strategies for the detection of PUE relay and replay attacks are presented in the paper: parametric and nonparametric. The parametric scheme is based on the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and requires the existence of a precise path loss model for the observed RSS values. On the contrary, the nonparametric procedure is not tied to any particular propagation model; so, it does not require any calibration process and is robust to changing environmental conditions. Simulations show that the nonparametric detection approach is comparable in performance to the LRT under moderate shadowing conditions, specially in case of replay attacks

Caracterización estructural de anticlinales en el extremo sur de la Cordillera Oriental, provincia de Salta, Argentina

Tesis presentada para optar al Grado de Doctor en Ciencias NaturalesFil: Hernández, Mariano. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentin

Pseudoaneurismas femorales en fracturas de cadera. ¿Se puede evitar?

Aunque la aparición de un pseudoaneurisma femoral es infrecuente en el contexto del tratamiento de fracturas pertrocantéreas, debido a su extrema gravedad y a su posible implicación en las causas de mortali - dad, es necesario realizar un diagnóstico temprano y un tratamiento adecuado. Presentamos 3 casos en los que se produjo una lesión de la arteria femoral superficial, y 2 de la arteria femoral profunda, tratados los 3 casos con stents recubiertos. Conclusiones . Se debe tomar en consideración, recti fi car la aducción y rotación interna de la extremidad fracturada una vez colocado el implante, el uso de brocas cortas o con un tope para el momento del en - cerrojado distal, longitud adecuada de los tornillos, controlar el desplazamiento del trocánter menor, o una correcta colocación de los cerclajes femorales, para poder disminuir la incidencia de este tipo de lesiones.Although the appearance of a femoral pseudoaneurysm is uncommon in the context of treatment of trochanteric fractures, due to their extreme gravity and its possible involvement in the causes of death, it is ne - cessary for early diagnosis and appropriate treatment. We report 3 cases in which an injury occurred superficial femoral artery, and 2 of the deep femoral artery, 3 cases treated with stents. Conclusions. It should be taken into consideration, correct adduction and internal rotation of the fractured limb once fitted the implant, the use of short bits or a cap on the distal locking time, proper length screws, control the displacement of the lesser trochanter , or the correct placement of the femoral cerclage, to decrease the incidence of these injuries