The Impact of Immigrants on Public Finances: A Forecast Analysis for Denmark

All over Europe, ageing populations threaten nations' financial sustainability. In this paper we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen financial sustainability. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast for the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Net contributions to the public purse are presented both as cross-sectional figures for a long time horizon and as average individual life-cycle contributions. The main conclusion is that immigrants from richer countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from poorer countries have a large negative one. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes

Befolknings- og indkomstudviklingen i danske kommuner

Gennem de seneste 25 år har en stigende andel af ældre, et øget uddannelsesniveau og en lang række af arbejdsmarkedsreformer været med til at præge udviklingen i befolkningens velstand. Grundet kommunale forskelle i befolkningens sammensætning har indkomstgennemslaget af ændringerne dog varieret betydeligt mellem land og by. Dette har betydet, at indkomstspredningen mellem landets kommuner er øget gennem den historiske periode. En fremskrivning med DREAMs mikrosimulationsmodel SMILE tilsiger, at vi også i de kommende 25 år kan forvente en aldrende befolkning og et stigende uddannelsesniveau, der henholdsvis dæmper og styrker indkomstudviklingen. I modsætning til den historiske periode imødeses relativt større velstandsstigninger i landkommunerne end omkring de større byer. Dette skal tilskrives en forholdsmæssig større effekt af udskiftningen af ældre med yngre bedre uddannede generationer, samt at aldringseffekten delvist modgås af de lovbestemte løft i tilbagetrækningsalderen og af stigende udbetalinger fra private og arbejdsgiveradministrerede pensionsordninger. Som følge heraf forventes en mindre geografisk indkomstspredning i fremskrivningen og dermed en mindsket polarisering

Discovery of a faint optical jet in 3C 120

We report the detection of an optical jet in the nearby Seyfert 1 radio galaxy 3C 120. The optical jet coincides with the well-known radio jet and emits continuum radiation (B,V',I) with a radio-to-optical spectral index of 0.65. There are no clear optical counterparts to the radio knots, although the optical condensation A of the galaxy, which includes the bright 4" radio knot, is found to be 12 % polarized with the electric field vectors perpendicular to the jet. These findings indicate that 3C 120 contains the 6th known extragalactic optical synchrotron jet, quite similar in its properties to the jet of PKS 0521-36. The outer parts of the jet is the faintest known optical jet and was discovered as the result of a dedicated effort to detect it. It is therefore possible that more optical jets can be discovered in systematic searches by combining deep imaging in the optical or near-IR with careful galaxy subtraction methods

Genome-wide association study identifies 30 loci associated with bipolar disorder.

Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 20,352 cases and 31,358 controls of European descent, with follow-up analysis of 822 variants with P < 1 × 10-4 in an additional 9,412 cases and 137,760 controls. Eight of the 19 variants that were genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery GWAS were not genome-wide significant in the combined analysis, consistent with small effect sizes and limited power but also with genetic heterogeneity. In the combined analysis, 30 loci were genome-wide significant, including 20 newly identified loci. The significant loci contain genes encoding ion channels, neurotransmitter transporters and synaptic components. Pathway analysis revealed nine significantly enriched gene sets, including regulation of insulin secretion and endocannabinoid signaling. Bipolar I disorder is strongly genetically correlated with schizophrenia, driven by psychosis, whereas bipolar II disorder is more strongly correlated with major depressive disorder. These findings address key clinical questions and provide potential biological mechanisms for bipolar disorder

Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium

We build and estimate a two‐sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production of finished goods, while finished goods (output) inventories yield utility services. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods. The estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory‐to‐target ratios. Although inventories are an important element of the model’s propagation mechanism, shocks to inventory efficiency or management are not an important source of business cycles. When the model is estimated over two subperiods (pre ‐ and post‐1984), changes in the volatility of inventory shocks, or in structural parameters associated with inventories play a minor role in reducing the volatility of output

Genome-wide interaction study of a proxy for stress-sensitivity and its prediction of major depressive disorder

Individual response to stress is correlated with neuroticism and is an important predictor of both neuroticism and the onset of major depressive disorder (MDD). Identification of the genetics underpinning individual differences in response to negative events (stress-sensitivity) may improve our understanding of the molecular pathways involved, and its association with stress-related illnesses. We sought to generate a proxy for stress-sensitivity through modelling the interaction between SNP allele and MDD status on neuroticism score in order to identify genetic variants that contribute to the higher neuroticism seen in individuals with a lifetime diagnosis of depression compared to unaffected individuals. Meta-analysis of genome-wide interaction studies (GWIS) in UK Biobank (N = 23,092) and Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (N = 7,155) identified no genome-wide significance SNP interactions. However, gene-based tests identified a genome-wide significant gene, ZNF366, a negative regulator of glucocorticoid receptor function implicated in alcohol dependence (p = 1.48x10-7; Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold p < 2.79x10-6). Using summary statistics from the stress-sensitivity term of the GWIS, SNP heritability for stress-sensitivity was estimated at 5.0%. In models fitting polygenic risk scores of both MDD and neuroticism derived from independent GWAS, we show that polygenic risk scores derived from the UK Biobank stress-sensitivity GWIS significantly improved the prediction of MDD in Generation Scotland. This study may improve interpretation of larger genome-wide association studies of MDD and other stress-related illnesses, and the understanding of the etiological mechanisms underpinning stress-sensitivity