The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.population ageing, financial returns, stocks, bonds

The aim of the present work is to test the predictive power of the term spread in forecasting real economic growth rates and recession probabilities in Italy. According to the most recent literature, the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. In both applications evidence supports a relevant informative content of the spread in Italy.

term structure; term spread; regime prediction

Marriage and Other Risky Assets: A Portfolio Approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial decisions. First, we test the hypothesis that marriage represents - in a portfolio framework - a sort of safe asset, and that this effect is stronger for women. Controlling for a number of observable characteristics, we show that single women have a lower propensity to invest in risky assets than married females and males. Second, we show that the differential behavior of single women evolves over time, reflecting the increasing incidence of divorce and the expansion of female labor market participation. In particular, towards the end of our sample period, we observe a reduction in the gap between women with different family status, which can be attributed to the gradual erosion of the perception of marriage as a sort of safe asset. Our results therefore suggest that the differential behavior of single vs. married women is explained more accurately by the evolution of gender roles in society, rather than by exogenous and time invariant risk attitudes. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1989-2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.portfolio choice; marriage; divorce; labor force participation

Marriage and Other Risky Assets: A Portfolio Approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial decisions. First, we test the hypothesis that marriage represents - in a portfolio framework - a sort of safe asset, and that this effect is stronger for women. Controlling for a number of observable characteristics, we show that single women have a lower propensity to invest in risky assets than married females and males. Second, we show that the differential behavior of single women evolves over time, reflecting the increasing incidence of divorce and the expansion of female labor market participation. In particular, towards the end of our sample period, we observe a reduction in the gap between women with different family status, which can be attributed to the gradual erosion of the perception of marriage as a sort of safe asset. Our results therefore suggest that the differential behavior of single vs. married women can be explained by the evolution of gender roles in society, even after controlling for differential risk attitudes. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1989-2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.Portfolio choice, marriage, divorce, labor force participation

Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing

A significant ageing trend can be observed in Europe and in other parts of the world. Fertility is decreasing and life expectancy increasing. The impact of migration is growing. The book deals with the implications for financial markets of these demographic trends. Leading economists and financial experts from Europe and the United States evaluate the challenges to public pension systems and the private pension industry. Based on long-term projections of productivity and employment they look at potential growth in GDP per capita and implications for savings and wealth. Pension fund portfolio management is discussed together with the ability of capital markets to serve retirement-financing purposes. Fiscal as well as financial sustainability are analysed in depth. The roles of global imbalances and international capital movements are included. Most chapters also discuss policy implications - in particular with regard to how pension saving incentives and rules and incentives for retirement should be in order to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability. All contributions in the book are based on presentations at the 26th SUERF Colloquium on "Money, Finance and Demography - the Consequences of Ageing" held on 12-14 October, 2006 in Lisbon sponsored by Banco de Portugal and Millennium bcp and in cooperation with the Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

Antiangiogenic agents after first line and sorafenib plus chemoembolization: A systematic review

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard treatment for intermediate stage, although the combination of TACE with sorafenib may theoretically benefit HCC patients in intermediate stage. Owing to the significant antiangiogenic effect of sorafenib and the limitation of TACE, it is rational to combine them. Though the strategy of combining TACE and sorafenib has been increasingly used in patients with unresectable HCC but the current evidence is controversial and its clinical role has not been determined yet. In first-line therapy, patients receiving sorafenib had increased overall survival and progression free survival. Therefore several antiangiogenic agents have entered clinical studies on HCC, many with negative results. This review discusses the current drug development for patients with HCC and role of TACE plus sorafenib