Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas

Because effects of climate change and an increase in elements at risk, mountain hazard loss increased throughout Europe. Yet, factors influencing loss, i.e. vulnerability, have gained less attention to date. Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss resulting from the hazard impact on buildings. Recent studies have focused on evaluating vulnerability to dynamic flooding using proxies from case studies and based on empirical ex-post approaches. However, the transferability to other case studies and, therefore, the ability of such models to actually predict future losses is limited. To overcome this gap, we present a beta model based on loss data from the European Alps, which clearly shows that a single vulnerability function is sufficient to predict losses resulting from different types of torrential hazards and to provide probabilities of destruction under specific scenarios. As a result, the curves are transferable and may significantly increase the predictive power of risk analyses

Klímaadaptációs és kockázatértékelési kézikönyv a Duna makrorégióra

In this paper we find the maximal order of an automorphism of a trigonal Riemann surface of genus g, g5. We find that this order is smaller for generic than for cyclic trigonal Riemann surfaces, showing that generic trigonal surfaces have “less symmetry” than cyclic trigonal surfaces. Finally we prove that the maximal order is attained for infinitely many genera in both the cyclic and the generic case.Original Publication:Antonio F. Costa and Milagros Izquierdo, Maximal order of automorphisms of trigonal Riemann surfaces, 2010, Journal of Algebra, (323), 1, 27-31.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jalgebra.2009.09.041Copyright: Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdamhttp://www.elsevier.com

Alternative consent methods used in the multinational, pragmatic, randomised clinical trial SafeBoosC-III

Background The process of obtaining prior informed consent for experimental treatment does not fit well into the clinical reality of acute and intensive care. The therapeutic window of interventions is often short, which may reduce the validity of the consent and the rate of enrolled participants, to delay trial completion and reduce the external validity of the results. Deferred consent and ‘opt-out’ are alternative consent methods. The SafeBoosC-III trial was a randomised clinical trial investigating the benefits and harms of cerebral oximetry monitoring in extremely preterm infants during the first 3 days after birth, starting within the first 6 h after birth. Prior, deferred and opt-out consent were all allowed by protocol. This study aimed to evaluate the use of different consent methods in the SafeBoosC-III trial, Furthermore, we aimed to describe and analyse concerns or complaints that arose during the first 6 months of trial conduct. Methods All 70 principal investigators were invited to join this descriptive ancillary study. Each principal investigator received a questionnaire on the use of consent methods in their centre during the SafeBoosC-III trial, including the possibility to describe any concerns related to the consent methods used during the first 6 months of the trial, as raised by the parents or the clinical staff. Results Data from 61 centres were available. In 43 centres, only prior informed consent was used: in seven, only deferred consent. No centres used the opt-out method only, but five centres used prior and deferred, five used prior, deferred and opt-out (all possibilities) and one used both deferred and opt-out. Six centres applied to use the opt-out method by their local research ethics committee but were denied using it. One centre applied to use deferred consent but was denied. There were only 23 registered concerns during the execution of the trial. Conclusions Consent by opt-out was allowed by the protocol in this multinational trial but only a few investigators opted for it and some research ethics boards did not accept its use. It is likely to need promotion by the clinical research community to unfold its potential

Extremely Preterm Infant Admissions Within the SafeBoosC-III Consortium During the COVID-19 Lockdown

Objective: To evaluate if the number of admitted extremely preterm (EP) infants (born before 28 weeks of gestational age) differed in the neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) of the SafeBoosC-III consortium during the global lockdown when compared to the corresponding time period in 2019. Design: This is a retrospective, observational study. Forty-six out of 79 NICUs (58%) from 17 countries participated. Principal investigators were asked to report the following information: (1) Total number of EP infant admissions to their NICU in the 3 months where the lockdown restrictions were most rigorous during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) Similar EP infant admissions in the corresponding 3 months of 2019, (3) the level of local restrictions during the lockdown period, and (4) the local impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the everyday life of a pregnant woman. Results: The number of EP infant admissions during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was 428 compared to 457 in the corresponding 3 months in 2019 (−6.6%, 95% CI −18.2 to +7.1%, p = 0.33). There were no statistically significant differences within individual geographic regions and no significant association between the level of lockdown restrictions and difference in the number of EP infant admissions. A post-hoc analysis based on data from the 46 NICUs found a decrease of 10.3%in the total number of NICU admissions (n = 7,499 in 2020 vs. n = 8,362 in 2019). Conclusion: This ad hoc study did not confirm previous reports of a major reduction in the number of extremely pretermbirths during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrial.gov, identifier: NCT04527601 (registered August 26, 2020), https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04527601

Tsunami vulnerability assessment using a geographical information system with special reference to Greece

Tsunami are rare geological phenomena but their impacts are frequently catastrophic. Greece is the European country that has been affected most frequently by tsunami. Whilst tsunami hazard and risk within Greece have been studied, tsunami vulnerability has not. Previous studies and hazard mapping of tsunami flood prone areas around the world imply that populations, buildings and infrastructure within a potential inundation zone are uniformly vulnerable to impact. However, vulnerability is a dynamic factor and is a function of a number of parameters, since vulnerability of any physical, structural or socio-economic element is the probability of it being damaged, destroyed or lost. This dissertation identifies two coastal segments within Greece known to be at risk from tsunami flooding; reviews the historical record of events and determines a worse case tsunami event for both locations. A new methodology for assessing vulnerability of these coastal communities is then developed and applied to each location. The methodology incorporates multiple parameters that contribute to tsunami vulnerability and identifies and demonstrates the vulnerability of different components of the community (human, economic and the built environment). Using a Multi Criteria Evaluation Method the vulnerability of individual buildings and open spaces within the potential inundation zone are assessed and the results are displayed in map form with the aid of a Geographical Information System (GIS). The primary database may be used by various end-users, such as emergency planners, insurance companies, individuals, local authorities and scientists, in order to produce maps that could enable them to make recommendations regarding response plans or mitigation measures. Finally, a framework for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment is introduced which integrates this vulnerability assessment methodology. Through this framework, the Greek Civil Protection system is outlined, its weaknesses are discussed and recommendations are made.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010) and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed

A Fully validated tsunami vulnerability assessment model (the "PTVAM" model)

The “PTVAM” tsunami vulnerability assessment model (Papathoma and Dominey-Howes, 2003; Papathoma et al., 2003), like all models, requires validation. We use the results from post-tsunami surveys in the Maldives following the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to ‘evaluate’ the appropriateness of the PTVAM attributes to understanding spatial and temporal vulnerability to tsunami damage and loss. We find that some of the PTVAM attributes are significantly important and others moderately important to understanding and assessing vulnerability. Some attributes require further investigation. Based upon the ground-truth data, we make several modifications to the model framework and propose a revised version (a fully validated) of the PTVAM (PTVAM 2)