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Climate Change and Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the Multifractal Universal Parameters in Ebro River Basin

Multifractal techniques are applied to the study of rainfall daily time series over 14 stations from Ebro river Basin over the second half of XX century. The aim is to determine how climate change affects the evolution of the probability distribution of daily precipitation, through the values of universal multifractal parameters: C1; ; H y s for different periods of time. These will offer direct explanations of the shape of the distribution, especially about the extreme events: C1 is the mean intermittency codimension. When C1 increases the precipitation becoming less continuous and more sporadic in time. Therefore there is an increase of extremes. ; is a mesure of multifratility so an increase of it corresponds to a larger variation of the range of precipitation intensity, and thus also of extremes. H is the degree of non-conservation of the field, which measures the scale dependency of the average field. s; the maximal probable singularity that can be observed on a unique sample. It’s directly related to the ratio of the range and the mean of field. From the data collected, we perceive a decline in average rainfall, from 1980. But how is affected the global parameters in this situation?. Results vary according to different rainfall stations

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference

Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section

Universal Multifractal description applied to precipitation pattern in the Ebro River Basin

Water supplies in the Ebro River Basin are increasingly stressed, especially during the summer season. The year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall over this area exert vital influence on the regional hydrology, agriculture and several related industries in the region. Repeated anomalous rainfall in recent decades has had a devastating impact on this region, both socially and economically. We characterised the change in the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (α index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution (γs ). Fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated data set from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and subdivided (1957–1980 and 1981–2002) to analyse the difference between the 2 periods. The general scenario observed in this study, through the UM parameters, can be summarised as follows: the range of variation of precipitation amounts was spatially more homogenous in 1980–2002 than in 1957–1979; at the same time, there is higher frequency of dry periods at different scales in 1980–2002; and in almost all of the stations, the range of precipitation over the years has been decreasing at a lower rate than the rainfall average. We then analysed the evolution of the UM parameters from 1957 to 2002. Continuous variations in C1 and α were found for 2 of the stations, indicating that a precipitation regime change has begun in the last few decades and should be considered in the agricultural development of the region

Robust regression applied to fractal/multifractal analysis.

Fractal and multifractal are concepts that have grown increasingly popular in recent years in the soil analysis, along with the development of fractal models. One of the common steps is to calculate the slope of a linear fit commonly using least squares method. This shouldn?t be a special problem, however, in many situations using experimental data the researcher has to select the range of scales at which is going to work neglecting the rest of points to achieve the best linearity that in this type of analysis is necessary. Robust regression is a form of regression analysis designed to circumvent some limitations of traditional parametric and non-parametric methods. In this method we don?t have to assume that the outlier point is simply an extreme observation drawn from the tail of a normal distribution not compromising the validity of the regression results. In this work we have evaluated the capacity of robust regression to select the points in the experimental data used trying to avoid subjective choices. Based on this analysis we have developed a new work methodology that implies two basic steps: ? Evaluation of the improvement of linear fitting when consecutive points are eliminated based on R pvalue. In this way we consider the implications of reducing the number of points. ? Evaluation of the significance of slope difference between fitting with the two extremes points and fitted with the available points. We compare the results applying this methodology and the common used least squares one. The data selected for these comparisons are coming from experimental soil roughness transect and simulated based on middle point displacement method adding tendencies and noise. The results are discussed indicating the advantages and disadvantages of each methodology

Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years

Thresholding Soil Surface Images

Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on several factors being one of them surface micro-topography, usually quanti[U+FB01]ed trough soil surface roughness (SSR). SSR greatly affects surface sealing and runoff generation, yet little information is available about the effect of roughness on the spatial distribution of runoff and on flow concentration. The methods commonly used to measure SSR involve measuring point elevation using a pin roughness meter or laser, both of which are labor intensive and expensive. Lately a simple and inexpensive technique based on percentage of shadow in soil surface image has been developed to determine SSR in the field in order to obtain measurement for wide spread application. One of the first steps in this technique is image de-noising and thresholding to estimate the percentage of black pixels in the studied area. In this work, a series of soil surface images have been analyzed applying several de-noising wavelet analysis and thresholding algorithms to study the variation in percentage of shadows and the shadows size distributio

Les paysages de prairie de la province de Ciudad Real. Caractérisation et évaluation biogéographique

The landscape of pasture is configured as a mosaic of wood in which the transformation of the environment has taken centuries. This feature and the configuration of a cultural landscape do not prevent us to find values of an ecological and environmental root, along with other cultural. All this makes this landscape particularly biodiverse and, therefore, an ecosystem of great scientific and social interest. It is precisely this interest which leads us to characterise the pastures in the province of Ciudad Real through the LANBIOEVA (Landscape Biogeographic Evaluation) methodology. In this sense, we apply this method over these cultural woods in a systematic way, so that we obtain data from each one of these criteria and can be compared with others obtained from other formations and areas on a global scale. The assessment of these unique landscapes is aimed at testing this method under such conditions. The results reflect that the most environmental or ecological criteria show figures which are very similar to those of the best preserved woodlands in the Iberian area. The cultural values, on the other hand, show higher scores, which makes that, in general, the sum of the natural, cultural and structural criteria is quite high. In this sector, the threats are not very high so that the final value, in turn, shows lower figures.El paisaje de dehesa se configura como un mosaico arbolado en el que la transformación del medio ha sido secular. Esta característica y la configuración de un paisaje cultural no es óbice para que dentro de estas formaciones existan unos valores de raigambre ambiental y ecológica, junto a otros de tipo cultural. Todo ello hace que sean especialmente biodiversos y, por tanto, uno de los ecosistemas que mayor interés científico y social despierta. Es precisamente este interés el que nos lleva a caracterizar y valorar los espacios de dehesa de la provincia de Ciudad Real a través de la metodología LANBIOEVA (Landscape Biogeographic Evaluation). En este sentido, se aplica este método de forma sistemática a estos bosques culturales y se obtienen los valores para cada uno de los criterios analizados de manera que pueden ser comparados con los de otras formaciones analizadas a escala global. La evaluación de estos paisajes tan singulares pretende testar dicho método en este tipo de condiciones. Los resultados muestran que los grupos de criterios más ambientalistas o ecológicos cuentan con unas cifras muy parecidas a las formaciones boscosas mejor conservadas dentro del ámbito ibérico. Los valores culturales, por su parte, muestran puntuaciones superiores, lo que hace que, en general, la suma de los criterios naturales, culturales y estructurales sean bastante elevados. En este sector, las amenazas no son excesivamente altas de manera que el valor final, por su parte, muestra unas cifras más modestas.Le paysage de prairie se présente comme une mosaïque boisée dans laquelle la transformation du milieu est séculaire. Cette caractéristique et la configuration d’un paysage culturel ne sont pas un obstacle pour que d’autres valeurs d’origine environnementale et écologique existent dans ces mêmes formations, avec d’autres valeurs de type culturel. Tout cela engendre une biodiversité et, par conséquent, un des écosystèmes les plus intéressants au niveau scientifique et social. C’est justement cet intérêt qui nous amène à caractériser et évaluer les espaces de prairie de la province de Ciudad Real en suivant la méthodologie de LANBIOEVA (Landscape Biogeographic Evaluation). Ainsi, nous appliquons cette méthode de manière systématique à ces bois culturels, nous obtenons alors des données pour chacun des critères analysés que nous pouvons comparer à celles d’autres formations analysées à échelle globale. L’évaluation de ces paysages si particuliers prétend tester cette méthode dans ce type de conditions. Les résultats démontrent que les critères les plus environnementaux ou écologiques obtiennent des chiffres très similaires à ceux des formations boisée les mieux conservées au sein du cadre ibérique. En ce qui concerne les valeurs culturelles, celles-ci montrent des résultats supérieurs, ce qui explique le fait que la somme des critères naturels, culturels et structurels soit, généralement, assez considérable. Dans ce secteur, les menaces ne sont pas excessivement élevées, c’est pourquoi la valeur finale, quant à elle, révèle des chiffres plus modestes

Modelización del comportamiento de una tobera para hilatura neumática mediante anemometría laser, comportamiento de las fibras en su interior

Con el fin de tener un conocimiento más amplio y más profundo del funcionamiento interno de las toberas utilizadas para hilatura neumática, se ha realizado el estudio presente, el cual consta de dos partes; el análisis experimental del flujo de aire en el interior de las toberas, y un análisis experimental del comportamiento de las fibras en el proceso de hilatura.In order to get a deeper and wider knowledge of the flow behaviour and fibres movement at the inside of a spin nozzle, the following research was carried on. On the first part, the air velocities were studied using an argon laser anemometer, while at the second part, the way travelled by the textile fibres was taken into consideration.A fin d’observer plus amplement le comportement des fibres textiles, leur movement à l’interieur d’un tuyau de filature pneumatique, a eté realisé l’expérience suivante. D’une part la mesure de la vitese à l’aide d’un anemomètre laser de argon, et d’autre l’analyse experimentale du comportement des fibres dans le porces de filature