Commentary on Guyll et al. (2023): Misuse of Statistical Method Results in Highly Biased Interpretation of Forensic Evidence

Since the National Academy of Sciences released their report outlining paths for improving reliability, standards, and policies in the forensic sciences NAS (2009), there has been heightened interest in evaluating and improving the scientific validity within forensic science disciplines. Guyll et al. (2023) seek to evaluate the validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons. However, they make a serious statistical error that leads to highly inflated claims about the probability that a cartridge case from a crime scene was fired from a reference gun, typically a gun found in the possession of a defendant. It is urgent to address this error since these claims, which are generally biased against defendants, are being presented by the prosecution in an ongoing homicide case where the defendant faces the possibility of a lengthy prison sentence (DC Superior Court, 2023)

Exploring the causal effect of maternal pregnancy adiposity on offspring adiposity: Mendelian randomisation using polygenic risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy is associated with greater offspring adiposity throughout childhood, but the extent to which this is due to causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use Mendelian randomisation (MR) with polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal. METHODS: We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and MR using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB, the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 and 4 years (N = 8659 to 7575). In ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 and 15 years (N = 4476 to 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10-18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several PRS, calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). RESULTS: MV and MR consistently showed a positive association between maternal BMI and BW, supporting a moderate causal effect. For adiposity at most older ages, although MV estimates indicated a strong positive association, MR estimates did not support a causal effect. For the PRS with few SNPs, MR estimates were statistically consistent with the null, but had wide confidence intervals so were often also statistically consistent with the MV estimates. In contrast, the largest PRS yielded MR estimates with narrower confidence intervals, providing strong evidence that the true causal effect on adolescent adiposity is smaller than the MV estimates (Pdifference = 0.001 for 15-year BMI). This suggests that the MV estimates are affected by residual confounding, therefore do not provide an accurate indication of the causal effect size. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age

Characterization of individuals at high risk of developing melanoma in Latin America: bases for genetic counseling in melanoma

PURPOSE: CDKN2A is the main high-risk melanoma-susceptibility gene, but it has been poorly assessed in Latin America. We sought to analyze CDKN2A and MC1R in patients from Latin America with familial and sporadic multiple primary melanoma (SMP) and compare the data with those for patients from Spain to establish bases for melanoma genetic counseling in Latin America. METHODS: CDKN2A and MC1R were sequenced in 186 Latin American patients from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay, and in 904 Spanish patients. Clinical and phenotypic data were obtained. RESULTS: Overall, 24 and 14% of melanoma-prone families in Latin America and Spain, respectively, had mutations in CDKN2A. Latin American families had CDKN2A mutations more frequently (P = 0.014) than Spanish ones. Of patients with SMP, 10% of those from Latin America and 8.5% of those from Spain had mutations in CDKN2A (P = 0.623). The most recurrent CDKN2A mutations were c.-34G>T and p.G101W. Latin American patients had fairer hair (P = 0.016) and skin (P < 0.001) and a higher prevalence of MC1R variants (P = 0.003) compared with Spanish patients. CONCLUSION: The inclusion criteria for genetic counseling of melanoma in Latin America may be the same criteria used in Spain, as suggested in areas with low to medium incidence, SMP with at least two melanomas, or families with at least two cases among first- or second-degree relatives.Genet Med 18 7, 727-736

Low NKp30, NKp46 and NKG2D expression and reduced cytotoxic activity on NK cells in cervical cancer and precursor lesions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Persistent high risk HPV infection can lead to cervical cancer, the second most common malignant tumor in women worldwide. NK cells play a crucial role against tumors and virus-infected cells through a fine balance between activating and inhibitory receptors. Expression of triggering receptors NKp30, NKp44, NKp46 and NKG2D on NK cells correlates with cytolytic activity against tumor cells, but these receptors have not been studied in cervical cancer and precursor lesions. The aim of the present work was to study NKp30, NKp46, NKG2D, NKp80 and 2B4 expression in NK cells from patients with cervical cancer and precursor lesions, in the context of HPV infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>NKp30, NKp46, NKG2D, NKp80 and 2B4 expression was analyzed by flow cytometry on NK cells from 59 patients with cervical cancer and squamous intraepithelial lesions. NK cell cytotoxicity was evaluated in a 4 hour CFSE/7-AAD flow cytometry assay. HPV types were identified by PCR assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We report here for the first time that NK cell-activating receptors NKp30 and NKp46 are significantly down-regulated in cervical cancer and high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HGSIL) patients. NCRs down-regulation correlated with low cytolytic activity, HPV-16 infection and clinical stage. NKG2D was also down-regulated in cervical cancer patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that NKp30, NKp46 and NKG2D down-regulation represent an evasion mechanism associated to low NK cell activity, HPV-16 infection and cervical cancer progression.</p

Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT

Background: Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5%-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of families with melanoma and whether performance improvements can be achieved. Methods: In total, 2116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) along with net reclassification indices (NRIs) as performance metrics. Results: MELPREDICT performed well (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.730-0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC 0.748, 95% CI 0.726-0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (P &lt; .0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.750-0.793, NRI 0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance. Conclusion: The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global data set of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in directing these patients to receive genetic testing or cancer risk counseling

Induction of CD4+CD25+FOXP3+ Regulatory T Cells during Human Hookworm Infection Modulates Antigen-Mediated Lymphocyte Proliferation

Hookworm infection is considered one of the most important poverty-promoting neglected tropical diseases, infecting 576 to 740 million people worldwide, especially in the tropics and subtropics. These blood-feeding nematodes have a remarkable ability to downmodulate the host immune response, protecting themselves from elimination and minimizing severe host pathology. While several mechanisms may be involved in the immunomodulation by parasitic infection, experimental evidences have pointed toward the possible involvement of regulatory T cells (Tregs) in downregulating effector T-cell responses upon chronic infection. However, the role of Tregs cells in human hookworm infection is still poorly understood and has not been addressed yet. In the current study we observed an augmentation of circulating CD4+CD25+FOXP3+ regulatory T cells in hookworm-infected individuals compared with healthy non-infected donors. We have also demonstrated that infected individuals present higher levels of circulating Treg cells expressing CTLA-4, GITR, IL-10, TGF-β and IL-17. Moreover, we showed that hookworm crude antigen stimulation reduces the number of CD4+CD25+FOXP3+ T regulatory cells co-expressing IL-17 in infected individuals. Finally, PBMCs from infected individuals pulsed with excreted/secreted products or hookworm crude antigens presented an impaired cellular proliferation, which was partially augmented by the depletion of Treg cells. Our results suggest that Treg cells may play an important role in hookworm-induced immunosuppression, contributing to the longevity of hookworm survival in infected people

Assessing the genetic architecture of epithelial ovarian cancer histological subtypes.

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is one of the deadliest common cancers. The five most common types of disease are high-grade and low-grade serous, endometrioid, mucinous and clear cell carcinoma. Each of these subtypes present distinct molecular pathogeneses and sensitivities to treatments. Recent studies show that certain genetic variants confer susceptibility to all subtypes while other variants are subtype-specific. Here, we perform an extensive analysis of the genetic architecture of EOC subtypes. To this end, we used data of 10,014 invasive EOC patients and 21,233 controls from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium genotyped in the iCOGS array (211,155 SNPs). We estimate the array heritability (attributable to variants tagged on arrays) of each subtype and their genetic correlations. We also look for genetic overlaps with factors such as obesity, smoking behaviors, diabetes, age at menarche and height. We estimated the array heritabilities of high-grade serous disease ([Formula: see text] = 8.8 ± 1.1 %), endometrioid ([Formula: see text] = 3.2 ± 1.6 %), clear cell ([Formula: see text] = 6.7 ± 3.3 %) and all EOC ([Formula: see text] = 5.6 ± 0.6 %). Known associated loci contributed approximately 40 % of the total array heritability for each subtype. The contribution of each chromosome to the total heritability was not proportional to chromosome size. Through bivariate and cross-trait LD score regression, we found evidence of shared genetic backgrounds between the three high-grade subtypes: serous, endometrioid and undifferentiated. Finally, we found significant genetic correlations of all EOC with diabetes and obesity using a polygenic prediction approach.The Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium is supported by a grant from the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund thanks to donations by the family and friends of Kathryn Sladek Smith (PPD/RPCI.07). The Nurses’ Health Studies would like to thank the participants and staff of the Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NE, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, VA, WA, WY. The authors assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. Funding of the constituent studies was provided by the California Cancer Research Program (00-01389V-20170, N01-CN25403, 2II0200); the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MOP-86727); Cancer Australia; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Council Queensland; Cancer Council New South Wales; Cancer Council South Australia; Cancer Council Tasmania; Cancer Foundation of Western Australia; the Cancer Institute of New Jersey; Cancer Research UK (C490/A6187, C490/A10119, C490/A10124); the Danish Cancer Society (94-222-52); the ELAN Program of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg; the Eve Appeal; the Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Fund; Helse Vest; the Norwegian Cancer Society; the Norwegian Research Council; the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund; Nationaal Kankerplan of Belgium; the L & S Milken Foundation; the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (4 PO5C 028 14, 2 PO5A 068 27); the Roswell Park Cancer Institute Alliance Foundation; the US National Cancer Institute (K07-CA095666, K07-CA80668, K07-CA143047, K22-CA138563, N01-CN55424, N01-PC67001, N01-PC067010, N01-PC035137, P01-CA017054, P01-CA087696, P30-CA072720, P30-CA15083, P30-CA008748, P50-CA159981, P50-CA105009, P50-CA136393, R01-CA149429, R01-CA014089, R01-CA016056, R01-CA017054, R01-CA049449, R01-CA050385, R01-CA054419, R01-CA058598, R01-CA058860, R01-CA061107, R01-CA061132, R01-CA063678, R01-CA063682, R01-CA067262, R01-CA071766, R01-CA074850, R01-CA080978, R01-CA083918, R01-CA087538, R01-CA092044, R01-CA095023, R01-CA122443, R01-CA112523, R01-CA114343, R01-CA126841, R01-CA136924, R03-CA113148, R03-CA115195, U01-CA069417, U01-CA071966, UM1-CA186107, UM1-CA176726 and Intramural research funds); the NIH/National Center for Research Resources/General Clinical Research Center (MO1-RR000056); the US Army Medical Research and Material Command (DAMD17-01-1-0729, DAMD17-02-1-0666, DAMD17-02-1-0669, W81XWH-07-0449, W81XWH-10-1-02802); the US Public Health Service (PSA-042205); the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (199600 and 400281); the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany Programme of Clinical Biomedical Research (01GB 9401); the State of Baden-Wurttemberg through Medical Faculty of the University of Ulm (P.685); the German Cancer Research Center; the Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; the Mayo Foundation; the Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; the Lon V. Smith Foundation (LVS-39420); the Oak Foundation; Eve Appeal; the OHSU Foundation; the Mermaid I project; the Rudolf-Bartling Foundation; the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at the University of Cambridge, Imperial College London, University College Hospital ‘Womens Health Theme’ and the Royal Marsden Hospital; and WorkSafeBC 14. Investigator-specific funding: G.C.P receives scholarship support from the University of Queensland and QIMR Berghofer. Y.L. was supported by the NHMRC Early Career Fellowship. G.C.T. is supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council. S.M. was supported by an ARC Future Fellowship