Probabilistic prediction of rupture length, slip and seismic ground motions for an ongoing rupture: implications for early warning for large earthquakes

Earthquake EarlyWarning (EEW) predicts future ground shaking based on presently available data. Long ruptures present the best opportunities for EEW since many heavily shaken areas are distant from the earthquake epicentre and may receive long warning times. Predicting the shaking from large earthquakes, however, requires some estimate of the likelihood of the future evolution of an ongoing rupture. An EEW system that anticipates future rupture using the present magnitude (or rupture length) together with the Gutenberg-Richter frequencysize statistics will likely never predict a large earthquake, because of the rare occurrence of ‘extreme events’. However, it seems reasonable to assume that large slip amplitudes increase the probability for evolving into a large earthquake. To investigate the relationship between the slip and the eventual size of an ongoing rupture, we simulate suites of 1-D rupture series from stochastic models of spatially heterogeneous slip. We find that while large slip amplitudes increase the probability for the continuation of a rupture and the possible evolution into a ‘Big One’, the recognition that rupture is occurring on a spatially smooth fault has an even stronger effect.We conclude that anEEWsystem for large earthquakes needs some mechanism for the rapid recognition of the causative fault (e.g., from real-time GPS measurements) and consideration of its ‘smoothness’. An EEW system for large earthquakes on smooth faults, such as the San Andreas Fault, could be implemented in two ways: the system could issue a warning, whenever slip on the fault exceeds a few metres, because the probability for a large earthquake is high and strong shaking is expected to occur in large areas around the fault. A more sophisticated EEW system could use the present slip on the fault to estimate the future slip evolution and final rupture dimensions, and (using this information) could provide probabilistic predictions of seismic ground motions along the evolving rupture. The decision on whether an EEW system should be realized in the first or in the second way (or in a combination of both) is user-specific

Hopefully Enduring: How North Carolina’s Divorce Laws Violate the First Amendment

The phrase “til death do us part” is both poetic and aspirational. It is the ubiquitous vow Americans make to one another when they marry[1] and embark on what is “hopefully enduring.”[2] But life does not always meet the aspirational marks we set and that is most true in the context of marriage and divorce. Each state enjoys nearly exclusive control over this intimate relationship, which results in different regulatory schemes across the United States.[3] Changes in Supreme Court jurisprudence over time ensured state regulation of marriage did not run afoul of the Constitution.[4] These decisions found marriage to be a fundamental right under the Fourteenth Amendment.[5] The Court addressed the issue of divorce in the same context.[6] But the Court has yet to squarely address the issue of marriage and divorce under the First Amendment. Divorce might very well be a fundamental right under a similar substantive due process analysis, but that is not the only potential source of its constitutional protection.[7] This comment provides the framework to argue that North Carolina’s year-long separation requirement is unconstitutional under the First Amendment because it violates an individual’s right to freedom of expressive association, freedom of intimate association, and freedom from compelled speech. [1] Caralynn Lippo, Why We Say “Until Death Do Us Part” In Wedding Vows, RedBook (Apr. 24, 2017), https://www.redbookmag.com/love-sex/‌relationships/‌a49934/‌until-‌death-‌do-‌us-‌part-‌wedding-‌vows-‌origin/#:~:‌text=‌The%‌20oldest%‌20standard%‌20wedding%‌20vows,to%‌20love%‌2C%‌20cherish%‌2C%‌20and%‌20to. [2] Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479, 486 (1965) (“We deal with a right of privacy older than the Bill of Rights – older than our political parties, older than our school system. Marriage is a coming together for better or for worse, hopefully enduring, and intimate to the degree of being sacred.”) (emphasis added). [3] Boddie v. Connecticut, 401 U.S. 371, 385 (1971) (Douglas, J., concurring) (“The power of the States over marriage and divorce is, of course, complete except as limited by specific constitutional provisions.”); Sosna v. Iowa, 419 U.S. 393, 404 (1975) (“The durational residency requirement under attack in this case is a part of Iowa’s comprehensive statutory regulation of domestic relations, an area that has long been regarded as a virtually exclusive province of the States.”). [4]See Zablocki v. Redhail, 434 U.S. 374, 375 (1971); see also Sosna, 419 U.S. at 404; see also Loving v. Virginia, 388 U.S. 1, 2 (1967); see alsoObergefell v. Hodges, 576 U.S. 644, 645 (2015). [5] Loving, 388 U.S. at 12. [6] Boddie, 401 U.S. at 374 (holding a Connecticut divorce law unconstitutional per the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment because the law denied access to the courts based on an inability to pay fees). [7] See Cathy J. Jones, The Rights to Marry and Divorce: A New Look at Some Unanswered Questions, 63 Wash. U. L. Rev. 577, 579-588 (1985); see also Elizabeth Horowitz, The “Holey” Bonds of Matrimony: A Constitutional Challenge to Burdensome Divorce Laws, 8 U. Pa. J. Const. L. 877, 879(2006)

Real-time Finite Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) for large earthquakes

To provide rapid estimates of fault rupture extent during large earthquakes, we have developed the Finite Fault Rupture Detector algorithm, ‘FinDer’. FinDer uses image recognition techniques to detect automatically surface-projected fault ruptures in real-time (assuming a line source) by estimating their current centroid position, length L, and strike θ. The approach is based on a rapid high-frequency near/far-source classification of ground motion amplitudes in a dense seismic network (station spacing <50 km), and comparison with a set of pre-calculated templates using ‘Matching by Correlation’. To increase computational efficiency, we perform the correlation in the wavenumber domain. FinDer keeps track of the current dimensions of a rupture in progress. Errors in L are typically on the same order as station spacing in the network. The continuously updated estimates of source geometries as provided by FinDer make predicted shaking intensities more accurate and thus more useful for earthquake early warning, ShakeMaps, and related products. The applicability of the algorithm is demonstrated for several recorded and simulated earthquakes with different focal mechanisms, including the 2009 M_w 6.3 L’Aquila (Italy), the 1999 M_w 7.6 ChiChi (Taiwan) and the M_w 7.8 ShakeOut scenario earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault (California)

Multiple blood-brain barrier transport mechanisms limit bumetanide accumulation, and therapeutic potential, in the mammalian brain

There is accumulating evidence that bumetanide, which has been used over decades as a potent loop diuretic, also exerts effects on brain disorders, including autism, neonatal seizures, and epilepsy, which are not related to its effects on the kidney but rather mediated by inhibition of the neuronal Na-K-C1 cotransporter isoform NKCC1. However, following systemic administration, brain levels of bumetanide are typically below those needed to inhibit NKCC1, which critically limits its clinical use for treating brain disorders. Recently, active efflux transport at the blood-brain barrier (BBB) has been suggested as a process involved in the low brain:plasma ratio of bumetanide, but it is presently not clear which transporters are involved. Understanding the processes explaining the poor brain penetration of bumetanide is needed for developing strategies to improve the brain delivery of this drug. In the present study, we administered probenecid and more selective inhibitors of active transport carriers at the BBB directly into the brain of mice to minimize the contribution of peripheral effects on the brain penetration of bumetanide. Furthermore, in vitro experiments with mouse organic anion transporter 3 (Oat3)-overexpressing Chinese hamster ovary cells were performed to study the interaction of bumetanide, bumetanide derivatives, and several known inhibitors of Oats on Oat3-mediated transport. The in vivo experiments demonstrated that the uptake and efflux of bumetanide at the BBB is much more complex than previously thought. It seems that both restricted passive diffusion and active efflux transport, mediated by Oat3 but also organic anion-transporting polypeptide (Oatp) Oatpla4 and multidrug resistance protein 4 explain the extremely low brain concentrations that are achieved after systemic administration of bumetanide, limiting the use of this drug for targeting abnormal expression of neuronal NKCC1 in brain diseases

VLT Spectroscopy of Globular Cluster Systems, I. The Photometric and Spectroscopic Dataset

We present Lick line-index measurements of extragalactic globular clusters in seven early-type galaxies (NGC 1380, 2434, 3115, 3379, 3585, 5846, and 7192) with different morphological types (E-S0) located in field and group/cluster environments. High-quality spectra were taken with the FORS2 instrument at ESO's Very Large Telescope. About 50% of our data allow an age resolution dt/t ~ 0.3 and a metallicity resolution ~0.25-0.4 dex, depending on the absolute metallicity. Globular cluster candidates are selected from deep B, V, R, I, K FORS2/ISAAC photometry with 80-100% success rate inside one effective radius. Using combined optical/near-infrared colour-colour diagrams we present a method to efficiently reduce fore-/background contamination down to <10%. We find clear signs for bi-modality in the globular cluster colour distributions of NGC 1380, 3115, and 3585. The colour distributions of globular clusters in NGC 2434, 3379, 5846, and 7192 are consistent with a broad single-peak distribution. For the analysed globular cluster systems the slopes of projected radial surface density profiles, of the form Sigma(R) ~ R^-Gamma, vary between ~0.8 and 2.6. Using globular clusters as a tracer population we determine total dynamical masses of host galaxies out to large radii (~1.6 - 4.8 Reff). For the sample we find masses in the range ~8.8*10^10 Msolar up to ~1.2*10^12 Msolar. The line index data presented here will be used in accompanying papers of this series to derive ages, metallicities and abundance ratios. A compilation of currently available high-quality Lick index measurements for globular clusters in elliptical, lenticular, and late-type galaxies is provided and will serve to augment the current data set. [abridged]Comment: A&A accepted, 42 page

Mindfulness for Chronic Pain Management

Chronic pain often occurs even after healing in the injury site because of changes in the way the brain perceives pain. Mindfulness is a simple mental activity, proven to reduce pain and the need for pain medication. Mindfulness increases the ability to mentally regulate pain, emotion, and behavior, alters the way the brain processes rewards, and restores positive feelings. Mindfulness can be learned in a class or at home and is an accessible alternative for managing pain

Public Health Violence Prevention: Supporting Law Enforcement

As frustrations over inequalities in policing and law enforcement continue despite attempted reforms (Beckett, 2016), many are asking for a more effective approach. A 2018 issue statement from the American Public Health Association (2018) highlights that violence is a public health issue that will not go away without the influence of a public health approach. The integrated biological-psychological-social model of health recognizes the complexity in the ways individuals are influenced by their situations, with violence as the unfortunate result of the wrong mix of circumstances. The public health approach to violence focuses on prevention as part of the solution. This fact sheet reviews public health approaches, examples of success, and what needs to happen next to bring public health and law enforcement together